Oldtimer

I think that you are quite right, and few if any races throw up no conflicts or contra-indications to the VDW-based likely winner (if indeed there is one). Even with what have been referred to as the "sitters" there remain doubts, however minor, and when one looks at some of VDW's old examples, it is clear that he was willing to discount doubts or conflicts that would have had me, at any rate, leaving the race alone. But he was a master of reading the Form Book whereas ....

Barney is surely right that there are easier races today to evaluate that the one Determined has chosen, but its certainly the one I'm going to take a look at when I get my Racing Post. A really worthwhile prize that should mean all runners are trying; well established horses with track records there in the Form Book to be evaluated, and at a distance that reduces the impact of the draw bias at Chester.

Determined

A question, if I may. In drawing up your shortlist, have you confined yourself to the first six (and equals) in the Racing Post forecast, or have you trawled more widely?

I ask because with these large field handicaps there is (as today) often compression around the 10/1, 12/1, 14/1 and 16/1 levels. In this circumstance, what any particular forecaster will put in at, say, 12/1 rather than 14/1, is necessarily a matter of personal judgement. VDW often used the Sporting Life forecast, but was known to refer to others - eg in the Strombolus example.

All this doesn't matter very much if, after considering the first six, one undertakes the various cross checks on the field that VDW employed. But if one confines oneself to the first six and equivalents, one can sometimes miss a runner which requires serious consideration.

Hi Barney,
Not sure if this is the speed figure your after but with regard to "Love from Verona" it recorded a speed figure of 78 on the 20th Jan at Kempton on soft going in a 16f race in 1979.
hope this helps Mimas.

determined ,no i,m not trying to upset anybody i just wanted to get some life back in this thread,i forget the post you and fulham refer to but putting up his analysis(fulham,s)would,nt harm..anyway chep 4.30 i feel this race is between GALAPIAT DE Mesnil / LANMIRE TOWERS gdm upped in class lto finishing 16/28 today dropped from class 325 to 101 can be forgiven last run prior to that consistent and has a lot in favour today.l.t seems to have sorted himself out after falling at cheltenham other than the p and f very consistent,distance not a problem ground maybe,on ratings i have gdm well clear...selection GALPIAT DE MESNIL...K 3.15 most prob monkerhostin...ch 2.55 selection RAINBOW HIGH have,nt got time for ins and outs..good day investor

I`ve recieved your e-mail although as yet I have been unable to read it as in theory I`m still at work (working from home this afternoon without the TV on).

Briefly again, on your question raised earlier. My initial evaluation is taken from the first 6 (including equals) in the betting however every horse is rated for ability and every horse recieves attention.

In hcaps for older horses where the form is well exposed I find many can be ruled out very quickly for many reasons.

Back to the betting forecast. If anybody wanted proof that the betting f/c is a way to narrow the field then all they have to do is look at todays Chester Cup.

Todays winner whilst having form in the race 2 years ago had clearly suffered training problems and didn`t set the world alight on his seasonal debut 2 weeks ago yet his place in the f/c today obviously told a story (HINDSIGHT OF COURSE).

On closer inspection I note Raceform had him looking well on his reappearance and the blinkers were back on today. That said, I had the horse down as `slow` and he would never have carried my money today.

Thankfully nor did anything else. Whilst I was happy with the evaluation made my 6th sense was telling me not to bet.

Determined

It wasn't just the betting forecast element of VDW that came into its own. Of those in the first six and equals (over half the field) with a run this season, the three with the highest ability ratings filled the first three places. And arguably the first two were the class/form horse and second c/f, albeit in reverse order. For me, though, this was one of those races where, as VDW put it, "to isolate the "class/form" horse can ... prove a tricky problem", and personally I'm far from certain which horse in the field VDW would have regarded as the c/f.

barney- thanks for the reply, not sure as yet why drumgora was implemented into vdw`s evaluation though must have been for good reason for it.When he mentioned mr kildare he mentioned the horse was an odds on winner l.t.o. not against much opposition was set to carry 5lb more which ties in hopefully with your pointer re- drumgora & prominent king where the latter carried a massive 12-7 in a (handicap)l.t.o. against a horse who had run a good race in good class previously.In an earlier debate from the thread re- classified & seeyousometime reference was made also to the class of opposition & who they ran against l.t.o. all this has me thinking, still havent come to any firm conclusions as yet but was wondering if we could use a horses ability rating to help when trying to confirm the relative merits of one performance against another when looking at past races not just todays?.
mac.

mac

you will get to the point where you have to decide what makes the oposition "much or not much".

there are differing views around here on that.

go back to the begining and ask yourself which horses win races.start with that answer.


thanks mimas i will check that race later

[This message was edited by Barney on May 08, 2002 at 06:26 PM.]

i think some might scoff at these races but there is a good thing in the 750f

Couldn`t agree more, ie - what chance does one have of finding the winner if one cannot even isolate the class/form horse(s).

On the ability rating - it will clearly not always spot the up and coming improver but over a reasonable period of time I wouldn`t be at all surprised to find it has a good success rate narrowing the field just in isolation. I recently considered ignoring the rating but I don`t think that was a good idea.

I would hope within a/n couple of weeks when many horses will have run once or twice there`ll be more recent form to work with and hopefully the picture will become a little clearer.

One can live in hope,

Cheers,

Keep posting.

Would I be right in thinking based on your earlier post that you had one out of 3 today ?



Barney,

When are you going to start speaking English ?

Did your 7.50F good thing win ?

hi determined


yes it did, and the last one did as well.. yum yum!they both were(in my opinion)against not much oposition.

Well done.

Give us the benefit of your thoughts on Chester tomorrow please if time allows.

Not spelling out of course just whether you consider any pot` bets are there to be found.

Cheers,

hi determined


i really would love to, i only get my rp at 630 and have a quick look before work, and then i have to snatch quick looks so, i miss more than i find, the ones on here i bet on.MY choices, i suspect, will not be the selections of many but they have what i consider to be the key and are well clear in comparison,I WOULDNT PUT THEM ON OTHERWISE.i have already posted on a quick look at one chester race.but finding one to bet on is another thing, i will take them where i find them.

Re; Barney's post 7-50 Fake

Some might Scoff - as in Laugh - as in
Corston Joker.

Regards Del

quote:

---

Originally posted by Fulham:
Determined

"to isolate the "class/form" horse can ... prove a tricky problem", and personally I'm far from certain which horse in the field VDW would have regarded as the c/f.

---

I would expect that VDW would have regarded the winner as the c/f horse. He had 20/20 hindsight.

good morning....it was one from two my friend monkerhostin was most probable but not a bet the selections are in capitals, i kicked myself r.e the chester cup i had two horse top rated on 75 i chose r.h on class guess what the other horse was,i should have made a book,never mind i,m still learning,but you,ve really got to be on the ball with this.

Robert


I'm inclined to agree with you in believing that there was an element of "hindsight" in VDW's work. But I'm certain that VDW would not have isolated yesterday's Chester Cup winner as the class/form horse, either prospectively or retrospectively: it was at best the 2nd c/f. That's not, of course, to say that Fantasy Hill might not have emerged as the selection for the race - for as Guest has shown, sometimes an alternative to the c/f is backed. Personally I can't see how form analysis would get one to FH as a clear bet, but I wouldn't exclude the possibility that more competent analysts than me might have found it. With an SP of 8/1, someone was backing it!

The pointer you gave last night if answered correctly could go a long way in gaining an insight into some of vdw`s less obvious filters which is what we must endeavour to do, surely some measures are required regarding horses previously ran against & the form they brought to those races also? he said as much when talking about mr kildare, which is why the ability rating was pondered over on reflection though that wasn`t mentioned in the prominent king example was it? he used two undisclosed methods he`had devised himself to help eliminate some probables.

mac.

hello all...c2.25 class act obviously george turner,but with a few factors against one to swerve,i think playapart may squeeze this but not for me..ratings top sohaib 2nd playapart.....c.2.55 looking forward to the reappearance of daliapour this is a class animal,miles ahead on ability but a downturn in form albeit in much higher class than this event,there are two horses that add to the problem,i cannot take daliapour on for obvious reasons,no bet...ratings jt top rated st expedit,water jump...c 3.25 this race is between island house ,tough speed t.s last two runs stepped up in class a long way but showing nothing in those races,dropping a long way today.but has factors against (in my opinion) and i will oppose him with ISLAND HOUSE last two runs stepped up in class,showing improvement in his last race with an improved s.f othe factors in his favour today....ratings top island house 2nd tough speed