catfish keith is an 8 yr old,races over 2 miles how can you make him improve 7 lths?
its a fact that some horses when their or rises to a certain level they cannot win until it is dropped.
sorry to bore with example again,a horse called mousehole,cannot win when he is rated over 70.
0/27 runs
rated under 70
12 wins out of 50 runs
you can wake up again now

beuchamp pilot from the worst draw of the possibles

chat?

see you there

bear with me,pc playing up

sorry cant get into chat.it is unbelievable how many people on here bet on a sat,and not one is on the chat,surely 5 heads are better than 1?

why can you not get in

it willl not load properly

you have to give it a few mins.

If this one can win from this draw, carrying more weight and over an unproven distance then he deserves all the credit one can give.

A fast finshing placed effort will be enough to mark his card for the Cambridgeshire.

Mtoto/Barney,

It’s been interesting to read some of your posts recently that have been flying backwards and forwards regarding the differing views and understandings of VDW beyond the INITIAL numerical picture; how he weighed up form.

Mtoto has obviously worked hard to get to where he has in his understanding of the subject, as have Guest, Barney, Statajack etc. etc. Apologies if I’ve missed some! From previous posts, I’m sure that Guest works things out in the same/similar way as myself. And Barney, more recently, has shown that he’s cottoned on to the underlying factor that runs through all VDW examples. The interesting one is Mtoto. He knows what to do, but does it differently than certainly myself, and Guest/Barney I would say. But, in a way he is doing what VDW suggested, just different to us. He goes beyond the numerical picture and has established a way of discerning just how classy a horse actually is using the combination of Speed, and Official (class) Rating.

Mtoto, I’m surprised that given the amount of study you’ve obviously put in, and the conclusion that you’ve already come to, that you are still searching for the missing piece. Perhaps you have found it in the past but overlooked it, or even found it but chose to disregard it? I don’t know? Are you still searching with an open mind, or do you believe that the way you do it is right? I must say, from what I can ascertain from your posts you seem to have a sound way of doing things, which, like I’ve said, isn’t many miles away from how VDW worked.

hello there..no mention today of BISHOPS COURT or CENTURY CITY in ireland,have you any views on these two

he must be doing something right as this is what he posted in his yahoo group

"................... An E/W bet on Vintage Premium is the wager for me."


also well done to adrian massey who had it rated well clear!!

Lee.

In answer to your post. I don't think I am looking for THE missing part. I am look for ANY thing that will improve my understanding of horse racing. I'm not interested in lists of past winners, if I get one, I take it apart to find out why they won. That's one of the reasons I get annoyed when people expect tips to be presented, without any explanations. So and so will win the 4:00 are of no use to me, unless they are backed up with a few reasons why. Then some people think we are doing the board an injustice. I'm always amazed people will go out and back these horses just because. I'm more than willing to help anyone (in private) and in general terms on a public forum.

I think these forums should be used to help each other in general terms. Then in general conversation I am told I don't understand racing, and even worse I don't understand vdw. Everything I do connected with racing, is based on how I interpret vdw. OK, Barney says it is perfect the way it has been presented, I don't agree. Nothing is so perfect that it can't be improved on. You say Guest, and Barney work in the same way, if they do why don't they agree on the same c/form horses all the time? How, why am I wrong to use s/f and OR's? We know vdw used s/f, we know he used class, but do we know he how really gauged it? With Guest's help I think I understand how he works (Guest) I still can't work Barney out. To be fair I haven't had time to look at the horses Barney put up yesterday. I am a bit surprised you think they are similar.

I would like to congratulate Old Timer, and BB on their win, bet they didn't put it down to vdw though. I think he would have had the winner.


Be Lucky

Mtoto - I tend to agree with Lees comments that you yourself already know the VDW factors that seem so obscure to the majority, but probably don't place as much importance on them as VDW did. I base this opinion on some of your posts that touch upon the factors involved. For instance, Millenary was just beaten FTO this season at Newmarket by Marienbard who had already had a run. This weeks race held no such fears for Millenary when everything was checked relatively. These checks are to do the obvious IE determine how much of a test each race has been.

Swish - The market is ultimately decided by the betting public, but the tissues are formed through conventional form analysis by many different people working for many different interested parties. Most days the Racing Post forecasts are remarkably accurate save for the odd unraced imponderables, just as they were in the Sporting Life. This tells us one thing namely that the majority of so called experts will almost always agree on the most likely candidates in a race. And so it follows that most winners come from the shorter end of the betting. The real trick is in sorting out the wheat from the chaff. Just who is most likely to win is not always the one many expect to. My view is that whilst the first 5/6 in the betting are most likely to provide the winner, it is often the case that the predicted or forecast odds are way out of line with each horses real chance. That is what I believe VDW mean't by his statement that "to a certain extent the art of successful punting is knowing how to appraise the odds and never going against them."

Investor,

Re` Bishops Court and Century City.
Without being rude, my opinion is not worth a great deal.
It is quite clear that I am not even past understanding the basics. It is fair to say that I am a little disillusioned right now.
It reads to me that several people found Vintage Premium yesterday using VDW methodology.
I backed Leadership taking the 9/2 availible early doors.


I have tried to tailor my betting to VDW since the start of the flat season and the results have been very disappointing, ie - for the first time since I can remember I am actually losing money after yesterdays results.

There is no doubting my ability to find winners using my own methods but this season to date I have been letting my own ways cross over in to VDW which has led me to total confusion at times.

Added to that, whilst I know a thing or 2 about the game there is no doubt I am a little out of my league with many on here.

I may be `Determined` but right now I feel far from it.

Good luck to all those who are making it pay and a very big pat on the back to all those who found Vintage Premium.

Mtoto,

I`m of the opinion you`ve had one hell of a good 10 days or so and whilst I`m guessing, I bet the majority on this thread would be envious of you if they only knew.
You have my total respect.


Bye,

good morning everyone

determined we are all novices but some have been at it for longer.IT really does give one something to look forward to doesnt it, when vintage premiums will be found.Well done to those who backed it.

a quick note on the complex issue of consistency
420b- one is very consistent in fields of 11 runners or less.

Mtoto,

Thanks for your reply. Like I say, you obviously hold your own very well with the way you go about winner finding, so don’t feel that is under question at all.

Experience in racing and employing a method is something that can’t be learnt, I’m sure you’ll agree. It is apparent from his posts that Guest has much experience, both in general, and with the employment of VDW, the way he sees it. VDW stated that to plaster the whole lot in front of the SCHB readers would have been the wrong thing to do and so it was his intention to let it out bit by bit. Differing end results will always be likely where there is a lack of experience, which is down to many things, but mostly lack of good judgement. With experience judgment will inevitably become better and one will begin to start singing from more or less the same hymn sheet.

Determined, Keep at it. If there were one piece of advice I could give then it would be to stop betting on your VDW selections. That way you’ll take away the emotion of winning and losing and I think you’ll progress quicker. Also, read over and over the last four paragraphs on page 8 of Betting The VDW way. "Interested punters should try........."

Determined,

I guess like you I was gung-ho to tray and work out VDW at first, but found that I was going down blind alleys and even losing my way with my original ideas.

The only thing I can say though is that it has made me make a whole new appraisal of what I am doing in my selection process. So in that way I can thank the VDW thread for making me think outside the box. Not having read any of his books, I doubt that I include any of his methods, but perhaps in parts I have stumbled across some parts. However, things have certainly turned around since I have stopped thinking is this the VDW way.

Maybe you are being too hard on yourself and trying to force an ideology on yourself. Surely the main point is to enjoy your racing.

I am sure you will remain determined and I hope that a flash of light falls to make all your past problems seem trivial.

Good luck

Oldtimer

Hang on in there mate.

Everybody on this board, apart from those who came on knowing (or thinking they did) the hidden factors will have felt like giving up at some stage. It is a frustrating road as I know but you obviously believe that there is a goal worth pursuing there. Remember, if it was easy everybody would understand and implement the methods.

Regarding yesterdays John Smith Cup at York. Remember VDW advised starting analysis with highest ability ratings. The final result when placed against VDW's ability ratings makes interesting reading. Taking the top 4 ability ratings then you have:

I CRIED FOR YOU (144) - A 7YO who has never won as far as 10 furlongs. Won the Cambridgeshire over 9f last season but (IMO) always going to struggle over a fast run 10f.

LERMONTOV (143) - Palpably out of form, not managed a win since his 2YO days back in 1999.

KIROVSKI (125) - In form, 3 length winner of the City and Suburban last time. Every chance here BUT would have it all to do from an 18 draw.

VINTAGE PREMIUM (117) - Back to back wins in class B handicaps before moving up to Listed class last time over this trip where he ran with great credit on ground a little faster than he would have liked.

Not only was it possible to highlight the winner but even the forecast as well from that early numerical picture.

Cheers