Have only just seen you post. Where was this 'logic' about ability ratings when VDW wrote about Roushayd?

roushayd wasn't about ability ratings,All the horses in Spells it out and various others were confirmed using the ability rating,I like you have not delved to far into the past,But i wouldn't dismiss the ability rating,Congratulations on devon view,Which was top on ability,If that was your sole bet,Then maybe you are also missing something.

Good evening
Did you not consider Impek's run against copeland a good piece of form,In comparison to what the other two had achieved.

It was not the feature card as chepstow and newcastle were frozen off.

VDW only considered the highest class race from other cards.

not sure if I've got the right end of the stick so just in case,

pk
mr kildare
monksfield
master monday
meladon
beparojoe
beacon light
banswara
bally mountain girl
decent fellow
cooch bear
multiple
troyswood
silvine
bugle beads
drumgora

JohnD - You have made some valid points regarding form, but when VDW talked of the class/form combination he was refering to two separate entities. If his method was just about the horse with the best form then he need not have mentioned some of the other parts such as ability ratings and consistency.

I note again you have suggested that checking your theory out with VDWs own selections (surely the benchmark we should all use in research) is not necessary. One example VDW gave was Pegwell Bay whom he also noted as having the best form. He also mentioned several class/form horses who didn't have the best form in the book in other examples. It is true though that these were left to run. So where does VDWs ability rating fit in for you?

Mtoto - The race Spirit Leader won yesterday was examined in the same way I checked races such as Love From Verona or Desert Hero. Establishing who was in form was a simple process and to be honest a ruthless one (cold logic). I understand many find it difficult to see a horse such as Quazar as out of form in the context of yesterdays event just as they would have with some horses in the LFV and DH examples VDW gave. In answer to Hedgehogs question, it proved a little trickier to establish that Le Roi Miguels "form" was below what was required relative to the race and Impek. Everyone may remember that I selected Vol Solitaire at Hereford at the time.

Spirit Leader actually had things in common with Desert Hero and even the trainer explained why she had things in her favour. It may have been a higher class race, but what was the class and form of the opposition yesterday?

See More Business has won the race before with topweight, in fact I think he has won off the highest rating of any chaser in recent years in a handicap before. Again, what was the real opposition? Also, how many who lumped on him as fav in a top class event last time were on at the same odds this time in an easier contest?

Now I know where you are coming from, it has been proven many times this year on this board BUT DO NOT BE AFRAID TO LOOK AGAIN AT THE PROMINENT KING RACE, THE WHOLE RACE.

There is far more in that one example than seems at first apparent, in fact when you see it in there, all the others have cohesion and similarity to a far greater effect than that shown by class, distance, course, going etc.

what was his true price?

lol.only one person puts more selections up than me on this thread.

I have the grey dyer second and historg third.


I,ll take the third to barton over anything in that race AAA's or whatever.

Did anyone see the 13yr old as a danger to seemorebusiness on saturday before he was pulled out?.

I may have misled somewhat in yesterdays' posts; enough, it seems, for you to think that the best horse in the race is the basis of the method as I see it. Athough I do see it as a reasonable point to start an evaluation, I can assure you that the method, as I see it, is far more comprehensive than the points you covered in your post.
The point I was trying to get across was that, even after years of research, contributors to this forum still cannot agree on what is the c/f horse, and that any method that puts forward such as Royal Auclair is not only wrong, BUT ALSO ILLOGICAL, and the way I suggested for identifying the CLASS horse in the race is based on a simple truth, which I feel should be apparent to anyone who is not too far down a particular path to turn their head occasionally. This does not assume that the class horse in the race is ultimately the c/f horse.
I thank you for your advice, and may one day look at PK's race again, but I am fairly sure that what I will find will fit in with my current thinking. As things stand, I see no reason at all to change my present point of view.

Luck for today
Johnd

It's often said that the student should surpass the teacher, in this sense it's refreshing to see Johnd's posts about extending the logical basis rather than insisting on staying within the letter of VDW as if it were some kind of religion. On the question of "the letter" it has been pointed out that VDW said one factor was "not deliberately" explained, I would have expected 'deliberately not' but as the former has been posted more than once I suspect it is directly as expressed by VDW himself. Can somebody confirm or repudiate that supposition? By my own assessment today I consider three races worth further study to decide whether or not the stand-out horses are worth an investment. The horses and races in my mind are: Ayr 12:45 Temple Dog, Ayr 1:15 Mulligan Express and Wolverhampton 2:00 Alberich(!). I wonder if you the VDWphiles consider my choices to be completely crazy?

Johnd

I think you've established my point.

Good luck with your approach and, who knows, it might yet turn out to be better than VDW's. But it is not VDW's, and those (few?) who may actually be interested in trying to understand a method that has proved reliable for over twenty years can at least be clear about that.


Investor

In my view, Impek was the only possible bet in the race on Saturday. His formal ability rating was lower than that of Le Roi Miguel, but consideration of a second numerical picture clearly showed a different perspective and various aspects of the form of both, including that to which Guest has referred, strengthened the case for Impek. Even collateral form analysis - via Polar Red - adds to the case.


JIB

Surely Barney is suggesting Kerrys Lad for the 1.45?

Good morning
I'm glad you mentioned a second numerical picture,I can now concentrate more on that aspect of vdw

Good morning
Johnd is not the new messiah,He's approaching vdw from a different angle,The posters on this thread Have been looking at the articles etc for a long time now,It's up to them as to the viability of vdw's methods,But that's what they are,There not johnd's methods,I wish him the best of luck.

Good morning
I have had a good look at Devon View,And can understand your reasons for backing this horse (the other picture) but there were only 5 points seperating all the horses,In other words the ability rating was like a blanket,This time it came off on other occasions it won,t,Nevertheless good luck to you on whatever route you take.

"not deliberately" is correct He also said in another publication
"A Little" was left for you to complete
Not a lot

A LITTLE

Thanks for clearing up that point.

I'm not going to bore you with detail,KERRY LADS comes out tops for me in this one,He can be forgiven his run lto,Falling at the last when well clear and staying on,Also a significant jockey booking,A genuine forecast fav (in my opinion) And i'll certainly be putting a few bob on this one.

Personally I cant see any reason why Kerry Lads or Luzcadou should beat The Grey Dyer.