for what its worth I get him in form and in form for the race, though on a line through hussard collonges he has little chance.

Barney,

I`m very much with you on this one.

Good luck,

Fitness is the only slight doubt but as I think Fulham has stated on several occasions with regards many of the VDW example`s there is always that element of risk.

At the likely price it is a risk worth taking.

One point, I`ve no doubt this race is a stepping stone to the valuable Listed race he won last year so he will not be 100% today but it shouldn`t matter.

Cheers,

i also like adiemus,thought you would have gone for no time,but you might have learnt the weight for age scale now

Determined

We know for sure that VDW sometimes selected horses which had not run for months - ie Flat horses having their first run for the season.

What I don't yet have, though others may, is an adequate sense of is HOW VDW evaluated that risk. For example, with his first such example, Rifle Brigade, the horse was the class/form horse (indeed the only form horse in the race), and two of the possible rivals had already failed to show that season. Further, RB was trained by someone with a reputation for winning with a high percentage of fto 3yos. Some or all of these factors may well have meant that, for VDW, there was no significant risk.

What similar or equally potentially relevant considerations might have applied to his other "long time off" bets, and might be helpful re Adiemus, I haven't yet explored. But with so many possibilities on the NH I'm inclined to leave the AW today. Good luck if you back him.

THis has a good chance on consistency.

not sure how vdw would look at it,but the way i look at it is a decent price is worth a risk a short price is not,would not go as far as barney saying its a certinty,but 7/1 forc price is too big.

just checked them and adiemus now 4/1,so must be fit.

Greg

The RP forecast (printed edition) is 7/2.

Good to see you putting up races before the event, a few observations if I may.

The 2.25 Kemp. is a intriguing race, Fondmort has probably the best form in the race, but there must be some doubt about today's c/d & going, based on his run at Aintree last season, likewise,and from the same race, with Seebald.
Young Deveraux surely needs a stiffer test to be seen at his best, and Dark'n Sharp has yet to prove himself at this level, although he could still win by default.
Wahiba Sands and Tugeonev are by no means out of it on this ground.
Had this race been run at Ascot, I would have had it between Seebald and Fondmort, but Kempton is a different kettle of fish, so no bet, though very interesting to watch.

Barney/Determined
Like yourselves I have fond memories of Adiemus from last year, but it is worth pointing out that he lost a race, ( January,this c/d), that he was well capable of winning, after a short break last season. If the race is run at a good pace, then Kirovski (IMO) would certainly test his fitness.

Thanks on several counts, ie -

- your reponse to my earlier post,

- your continued posting on this thread. It both educates me and leaves me in no doubt how far behind I am in understanding this methodology,

- your mention of book suppliers ( sometime back )who I have contacted this week and managed to obtain all the missing formbooks I need ( with the exception of one namely the 83/84 NH season ).

*** you have hinted that there maybe some good opportunities today. Good luck ***



For what its worth I have Epervier D`Or and It Takes Time as good things but not at my kind of prices.

Ilnamar also looks to be the likely winner but will also be left to run.

Cheers,

Kirovski, I have to agree is the only possible danger and if he has the race run to suit he may get first run and steal it but it has to be `A` for me.

Cheers,

quote:

---

Originally posted by Barney:
THis has a good chance on consistency.

---

But was it a vdw bet? Without spelling it out ,of course.

Barney, if you was to wear a skirt they'd call you a prick teaser!

IT opened at 12's and a few bits of 14's, i got 14's luckily, that soon went as you can imagine.

To some it would be almost impossible to view as a vdw bet but the trainer really was out to win that race and he told you so.

Its almost impossible to say much as its so off the wall but if it helps, deanos beano and stromness had done their "job" and rum pointer
had had his chance.

As you know my view conflicts with many, so its up to you, but I only use VDW "how i see it".

Johnd,

you were right with kirovski well done.

Graham,

well done on your first efforts, in your second race analysis you touched on something that should be given more analysis time, look at the race as a whole and do not single them out as lots of individuals.

GrahamHepburn,

A well thought out analysis of the 2 races. I happen to think Hussard Collonges is well capable of giving Best Mate a good race for the Gold Cup. However I think he needs more than 3 miles and a stiff up hill finish to be seen at his best. So he wasn't seriously considered for today's race. I did have some more of the 14/1 for the GC to go with the 25/1 and 33/1 taken earlier. Come the day I can lay some of and have a fair bet to nothing, I believe he is as short as 10/1 after today's race. HC has a fair/good s/f but he is not a speed horse he grinds them into the ground.

The point of this posting is to say I think a lot more notice should be taken of what courses and distances the horses need. There is a world of difference between a horse that has tried and failed, and a horse that is being tried for the first time. i. e Truckers Tavern. I expect someone will tell me if I'm wrong, but I don't think VDW ever said in words it must be a distance winner.

Fulham,

Just noticed your post on another thread, hope you get over your drink problem.

Be Lucky

Has anyone done any work on horses that defied probability?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Barney:
IT opened at 12's and a few bits of 14's, i got 14's luckily, that soon went as you can imagine.

To some it would be almost impossible to view as a vdw bet but the trainer really was out to win that race and he told you so.

Its almost impossible to say much as its so off the wall but if it helps, deanos beano and stromness had done their "job" and rum pointer
had had his chance.

As you know my view conflicts with many, so its up to you, but I only use VDW "how i see it".

---

cheers for that Barney, its the going against the crowd that makes the money.

Arrowson deano`s beenos race & epervier d`ors taught me valuable lessons today, at face value both had nearly everything line up to be considered real vdw bets so i put both up on the tipping challenge on friday evening, imagine my discomfort when i looked beyond the numerical picture & looked at the l.t.o.form of both horses i.e. both had hard races & certainly in the case of epervier d`or there was real cause for concern with regards to the race comments & the ratings achieved therin compared to farmer jacks along with the weight cosiderations, had to ask myself after the race which horse between the 2 had most potential to progress given todays race conditions.
Deano`s Beeno was another who was involved in a hard race l.t.o. but against the current champion stayer, i find it difficult to figure out how anyone could have made the winner a vdw bet beforehand, i have read jock binghams findings on the rivage bleu & travado method but how on earth were we to really know that lord transcend was up to the task today? surely not by the consistency rating alone?, we know by the trainers comments after his last races how highly he rates this horse but before today he had not proved on the track that he was anywhere near this standard or class, from now on i will only be having my maximum bets on those horses who have everything lined up or going for them & have either improved in defeat l.t.o. or have won with a degree of comfort hence still some room for improvement GIVEN todays conditions in non-handicaps only. Chaz well done with Farmer Jack today on the tipping challenge i learned a lot from that race.
yours walter .

this has a chance on consistency,you had 14-1,as they would say in my neck of the woods,your a first class bullshitter,your racing certinty got beat and your taking claim for a half mention ,get a grip