Thankyou for that Bream.

I suspect your story of the miserable old git is a familiar one to many others.

A good SOH is no laughing matter, making others smile and laugh is big business but more importantly it is often at the top of a pretty girls wish list for her ideal man.

I`ve often heard or read the rich and famous say "I want him to make me laugh". So in this respect it is a factor in the gene pool from which everything else flows.

What could be more important or serious than that !

111
.

If you can`t laugh at yourself -what else can you laugh at ??

Tc

Basic ""strine" thinking !!

TC

That`s always the best starting point.

111
.

111

No !


Start with -



A bottle of "Red Biddy" !!

No I cann`t find a ref -X`cpt

quote:

---

"a smile and a kind word"

---

"Dutchmen" like the Germans are not noted for their sense of "Humour" and I don`t think that a few years in "Auswitz" would have helped.

His SOH , is not realy relavent to his thoughts !


I think !!


Tc

ANDREW
Nice one with Last Theatre, Friday. Almost missed it.
Regards
Johnd

TC,
I can understand why you feel a SOH is not required to make correct logical decisions,the immigration officials who let you enter the UK had one obviously.
Q.

Thanks Johnd,

Hope you backed Shotgun

I have been watching Herodotus for a while now and note that he is running today at Wolverhampton - never ran here before.

Opposition faced in this race today doesn't look as strong as previous - any thoughts.

BTW did many of you back Quazar on Saturday - by my reading of the methods this looked one to bet on.

SATURDAY'S BIG RACE
Encouraging to see that a number of members expressed their pre-race views on the 'in formness' of a number of runners in this race. As it turned out, 2 out of the first 3 places were filled by horses considered in form by the majority, which augurs well for similar discussion in future.
Not only did the question of 'in formness' prove crucial in this case, but arguably also in the cases of Gunner Welburn (Apologies to Determined),Quazar,Europa, and Got One Too, all of which were there to be backed if one made the right decision. Sounds simple after the result is known, but it does show the need to get to grips with what is a vital consideration in many races.
The jury is still out on how VDW saw this aspect, and it will be a major step forward if we can reach a common consensus. If anyone would like to put up a race for this weekend, or for Cheltenham next week, hopefully we can get a similar response to last week.
Many thanks,
Johnd

P.S. Does anyone else think that Iris Bleu looks a laydown (10/1 yesterday) for the National Hunt H'cap at Cheltenham?

Johnd,

I like you enjoyed the in formness debate and I am keen to continue the exercise this weekend.

In my opinion the obvious but difficult race to tackle is the Imperial Cup. I note Non So who was the subject of much discussion on his last run is declared which adds to the interest.


Iris Bleu - ceratainly marked his card at the weekend on his 3rd run in the past month. A very hard race and I personally do not think he`ll run next week. If he does he`ll be up against, I suspect on average a far better overall class of opposition and will therefoe have to improve again off I believe a 4 lbs higher mark.

Cheers,

Hi,

I have been going over the last few posting re in or out of form. One thing that struck me was Fulham's comment about Stormez....

{Stormez - for me an unusual case, where a horse which has won its last three races is probably appropriately regarded as out of form, given the class of this race and his rivals;}

I know Fulham is otherwise engaged, but have any of you any ideas how he can come to that conclusion? When he excepts Desert Hero as the class/form horse in a previous example. I haven't the form book's that cover that race, but from what I have read DH was well down the list on ability ratings. I also think the class of race he had been competing in was well below the class of the race in the example.

Any thoughts about this, or was Stormez a form horse? Another thought, if weight is such a leveller why didn't it stop many of the top weights this weekend? The going was that bad it should have had a major effect on the higher weighted horses.

Be Lucky

MTOTO
I obviously can't answer for Fulham, but I also posted Stormez as out of form, for the following reasons
His last 3 wins consisted of 2 against lesser horses than those he met on Saturday, both of which he had to work for, ( £8k & £8k ), and a win in a 2 horse race ( £12k ), against a lesser horse.
Compared with his win in a much better race fto,( £34k ), this, in my eyes, made him O.O.F., or if you like, not running like the potential winner of a 58k race.
Having not spent much time studying Desert Hero, all I can tell you is that on his previous run he was 3rd, btn 1l, in a class 13 race, carrying 11 7 against apparently modest opposition; whereas previously he had won a similar race, class 12, by 10l, carrying 11 1.
Lee's recent reply to me on Desert Hero may help shed more light on it.
Hope this helps.

re . - In form - out form.

Now this is the sort of VDW talk that I was hoping for, when I first found "gummy".

I don`t pretend to be realy able to contribute much as yet , but now I am starting to learn, and hope that you will look at any of my future input with "Tolerance" !!

Yours

"In VDW spirit"

Tc

re Imigration -

No they have no "Sense of Humor"-

they are just a bunch of "Jobsworths" who are protecting their own Arses.

Viz the current "Asilum" crisis !!

They should have "Shot" me on arrival !!


"Clearly a Bloody Troublemaker" !!!!



Tc

Determined

OK with me on the Imperial Cup - will post my thoughts as soon as decs are final

Just had a quick look at the entries and can't see past Korelo and Non So at the moment. The race maybe similar to Korelo's last one in that there are only two likely winners.

Mtoto,

I like Johnd took the view that Stormez`s last 3 winning runs in novice company were against far lesser animals than he was to face on Saturday. Also, one further thought, he had already failed miserably in similar class in the Hennessy and nothing in his subsequent winning achievements suggested he had improved enough to take Haydock`s valuable prize.


Weight - the jury is still out for me on this factor. It didn`t stop Shotgun Willy but in my opinion it did stop Chives in the Welsh National.

*** on the subject of weight. How much more weight will Non So be carrying this coming Saturday in comparison to his last run and will it effect the result ?

Cheers,

Johnd/Determined.

Thanks for your replies. I was interested to see your reasons for making him out of form. Could I suggest his last 3 runs was just a clever piece of placing by Pipe, and that the form could not be taken at face value. The runs were not so good because there was little or no pace in the races. I agree the races were novice class, but he had proven himself against handicappers at Cheltenham. I looked at him, and thought about Strombolus, I thought it was very similar.

As I said at the time I thought it was the bad jump at the last that beat Chives, but we will never know. The last thing I will be looking at is the weight when I judge the chance of Non So on Saturday. I am sure that if the Sandown hill stops him, it will be blamed on the weight. not the hill.

Be Lucky

MTOTO
Stormez's biggest win also came in a race run at a steady pace. Even if one does not accept him as out of form, he still had a lot to find in this 0-155.
In his best previous performance, the best horse he had beaten was rated 140, ( Ignoring Shooting Light, who was racing over the wrong distance, and was left in the race to keep Stormez's weight down ).

ALL
In my earlier posting, I may have given the impression that I use race values to appraise a horses previous form. I usually start to look at a race from the O.R. point of view first, and then check ratings, race values, etc., to confirm the findings.
It is a matter of personal preference, but it has long been my firm belief that O.R.s are a better guide than race values nowadays, and I will give a good instance from recent postings of why.
Chicuelo is usually considered as a very good horse by many on this thread, but why?
Because he won a 37k race, he is invariably amongst those regarded as the class horses by those that use ability ratings as a foundation, but an objective look tells a different story.
The race he won was actually a 'Summer jumps job' at Market Rasen?', when all the good horses are out in a field.
In that race, the highest rated horse he beat was rated 136, ( And racing over the wrong distance).
In his next race, he was a short priced favourite, in a proper 0-154 race, and (IMO) HE WAS OUTCLASSED BEFORE HE HAD JUMPED 3 FENCES.
The race after that he won, but the highest rated horse he beat was rated 130, followed by another victory against horses rated no more than 128.
In his last race, a 0-152, he was again accorded the status of one of the class horses in the race, AND WAS AGAIN COMPLETELY OUTCLASSED.
An example bordering on the extreme, but nevertheless, another nail in the coffin of ability ratings as a contemporary tool.
Apologies for the long winded post, but something I have wanted to get off my chest for a while.

[This message was edited by johnd on March 05, 2003 at 02:37 AM.]

JohnD,
A couple of observations re your last post if I may.
I generally apply the ability ratings to a race at the 5 day stage and rate the whole field and in handicaps I don't think that it's coincidence that there is a strong correlation between the ORs and the ARs as you look down the handicap with of course the higher ARs at the top end.Horses like Chicuelo stand out for further investigation and I don't think anyone who posted their views on the day of his last race had him as a form horse.Therefore i think there is a strong similarity between the two but the reason I prefer ARs is that you need to have won a race to get one.
Of course VDW said many times the ability rating was only a guide as of course ORs are in that they are someone's opinion of a horses merit.

All the best

Graham

Good Post Johnd

Graham

Yes OR's are only somebodys opinion But that opinion has a big influence on the outcome of a hcap race
Abilty ratings have no influence on the outcome of a race whatsoever