Guest,

Sorry about the mistake about the weight carried by Tikram, it just goes to show I really don't take any notice of the weight carried.

You ask why have I put the focus on Sunset Christo's last race. That was only because it was the highest weight he carried in his last three runs. If I had use the others, the increase was even bigger. The other reason was it was the highest class race he had run in. I notice Fulham says he won a race carrying 12st +, looking at his age I assume it was a novice chase. I don't use novice form in handicaps, and I don't think VDW did. Not if that form was the best to date anyway.

It would be interesting if you or someone else could list the top 4/5 on ability for the Cheltenham races. If that is possible I would list my top 4/5, so we can compere.

Fulham,

I can only agree Kates Charm wasn't the c/form horse, the way you mean it. I made the mistake of calling my BEST HORSE the class/form horse. I still can't see how it wasn't a form horse the Roushayd way, and form is form. I don't understand why you think all the examples were found using the c/form method. I can see class and form are involved, but isn't there any other way to use these elements? Roushayd was beaten 9 lengths in his last race, isn't it a struggle to make him a form horse? He is the class horse no problem, but to make him a form horse you have to use another method.

Be Lucky

Guest,

Thanks again for the latest stats.


Mtoto,

I will gladly put up the ability ratings throughout Cheltenham.

***** You must have read my mind as I was hoping you would put up your `alternative` to the ability rating.

This week could prove very interesting.

I`ll hopefully have tomorrow`s ratings posted sometime this evening.

Cheers,

Mtoto

The reasons I think VDW found all his selections (with the possible exceptions of the handicap Hurdle method ones and the Best Bet/Next Bet ones, neither set of which I yet fully understand) via the class/form approach are:

1) he himself told us repeatedly that class and form were, for him, "the dominant factors" (he also explained that, tactically, he tried to draw attention to elements of his approach one at a time, so the fact that class, for example, did not emerge as a clear concept for some while does not undermine the basic thesis);

2) the c/f approach not only explains all the VDW examples where he explictly named a c/f, but also all the other examples I've looked at (again, save for the possible exceptions mentioned in my first paragraph). (As you know as well as anyone, several of us have been all over the shop trying satisfactorily to understand the early examples like Prominent King and Rifle Brigade, and various plausible explanations can be found in each case. But the c/f approach cuts through to the heart of these and the other examples where VDW did not explictly name a c/f and provides a consistent and objective basis for these selections.)

Determined wrote:

quote:

---

I will gladly put up the ability ratings throughout Cheltenham.

---

I'm sure having the ability ratings for the entire fields at Cheltenham on the forum will prove a very worthwhile exercise. All the form is available in todays RP, so I don't see why Determined should do all the work. How about a joint exercise where a few of us take responsibility for a race each?

I'll volunteer for the first race (2.00) and will post the ratings later. Anybody else?

crock,

excellent idea

I will do the next

235 c "arkle"

all are rounded down or up as per decimals and in alphabetical order.

adamant approach 162
azertioup 140
farmer jack 68
hand in hand 79
impek 76
isio 46
le roy miguel 54
ricardo 60
stage affair 72

ABILITY RATINGS - 2.00 (TUES)

RACECARD ORDER
ARCH STANTON - 0
BACK IN FRONT - 69
CHAUVINIST - 216
DANGEROUSLY GOOD - 0
DETONATEUR - 0
INCA TRAIL - 37
JABOUNE - 50
JOUEUR D'ESTRUVAL - 50
KELTIC BARD - 86
KICKING KING - 104
LIMERICK BOY - 40
MUTAKARRIM - 100
NORTH POINT - 43
ROSAKER - 124
SUPREME DEVELOPER - 75
THISTHATANDTOTHER - 85
LIRFOX - 97
PRINCE DIMITRI - 32
TRAMANTANO - 67

TOP 6
CHAUVINIST - 216
ROSAKER - 124
KICKING KING - 104
MUTAKARRIM - 100
LIRFOX - 97
KELTIC BARD - 86

To all
Guest has put up some figures for the ability ratings,Here are a few FACTS for the festival for the last 10 years,


Half the winners at the festival in the last 10 years,Ran at kempton,Newbury,Sandown or Warwick in there most recent run.

Over 80% of grade 1 festival winners in the last 10 years finished 1st or 2nd in there most recent start.

be lucky,And have a profitable festival.

I WILL DO QUEEN MOTHER AS WELL

not literally as shes dead.

335C CHAMPION HURDLE.

COPELAND 298
FLAME CREEK 115
HOLY ORDERS 238
HORS LA LOI 371
IBERIOUS 0
IN CONTRAST 121
INTERSKY FALCON 193
LANDING LIGHT 290
LIKE A BUTTERFLY 223
MARBLE ARCH 196
RHINESTONE COWBOY 124
ROOSTER BOOSTER 217
SANTANAY 110
SCOLARDY 207
SCOTTISH MEMORIES 224
SELF DEFENSE 0
WESTENDER 108

Many thanks you guys for posting the Ability Ratings, as I have no way of getting them for the NH - the ISP being so putrid that all I can get is the homedpage of the RP.

Very much appreciated.

Oldtimer

Crock/Barney,
Great idea.
I will do the Stayers and Grand Annual on Thursday ie the 2.35 and 4.35.

Cheers

Graham

5-20 The Pertemps Hc Hdle.
Ballylusky 76
Ballsicyos 41
Carlovent 81
Chopneyev 154
Creon 49
Dubai Seven Stars 25
Farinel 115
Guard Duty 28
Inching Closer 42
Kerrigand 49
Mirjan 83
Miss Fara 45
Moss Harvey 51
No Discount 60
Proper Squire 36
Ravenswood 143
Rostropovich 73
Royal Emperor 65
Rum Pointer 67
Springfield Scally 59
Surprising 57
The Culdee 95
Tribal Venture 42
Tucacas 94

See you soon, Mike.

ABILITY RATINGS - 4.00 (TUES)

RACECARD ORDER
FOXCHAPEL KING - 204
FOLY PLEASANT - 94
ROYAL AUCLAIR - 146
AD HOC - 214
IZNOGOUD - 87
THE BUNNY BOILER - 206
YOULNEVERWALKALONE - 150
CARBURY CROSS - 89
SOUTHERN STAR - 51
GO BALLISTIC - 83
JOSS NAYLOR - 60
MAXIMISE - 127
SATCHMO - 78
BRAMBLEHILL DUKE - 54
FATEHALKHAIR - 44
HAUT CERCY - 45
HISTORG - 65
DJEDDAH - 204

TOP 6
AD HOC - 214
THE BUNNY BOILER - 206
FOXCHAPEL KING - 204
DJEDDAH - 204
YOULNEVERWALKALONE - 150
ROYAL AUCLAIR - 146

Bloody hell chaps. Came straight in from work and worked out the ability ratings. Then come onto the thread to post them and well what can I say.

Thanks to you all.

Best get down to the hard work.

Cheers,

4.40 tomorrow on its way now

4.40 - KIM MUIR

190 Katarino
48 Rathbawn Prince
100 Montifault
62 Royal Pedica
54 Samual Wilderspin
53 Burlu
118 Moor Lane
41 Lord Jack
73 Caryonharry
108 Dorans Gold
60 Ifni Du Luc
73 Montreal
125 Royal de Vassey
35 Skippers Cleugh
83 Rith Dubh
91 Silver Street
62 Mr Baxter Basics
68 Be My Manager
56 Tom Cosalot
78 Northern Sound
52 Lanmire Tower
78 Ibis Rochelais
56 Spinofski
? Whereareyounow

Mtoto - Sunset Cristo had won 4 handicaps on the trot prior to Haydock including a win with 11-11. He also gave weight to the 2nd in two of his other races including Another Captain (a horse VDW said we should note). He also beat Silver Buck, a very high class chaser, when receiving plenty of weight.

At Haydock he was set to carry a lot less weight before the weights went up 19lb overnight. He was getting weight from some horses who were not form horses and nothing further down the scale had significant ability or form. Korelo had won just one handicap when receiving weight from Chopneyev. Had he say won a handicap prior to that in lesser class with 11-10 then I would have been very interested.

As promised my ability horses for the first day of Cheltenham. They are listed in the order of strongest first....

2:00
Thisthatandother
Back To Front
Rosaker
Kicking King

2:35
Impek
Le Roi Miguel
Hand Inn Hand

3:15
Intersky Falcon
Santensay
Rooster Booster
Hors La Loi 111
Landing Light

4:00
Royal Auclair
Foly Pleasant
Ad Hoc
Youlneverwalkalone

5:20
Chopneyev
Rostropovich
Tucacas
Ballylusky

I stick mainly to the top 2, working down looking at the track, distance, etc. I am looking for the winner in the race. Example 3:15 Intersky Falcon is the BEST HORSE in the race, most of his best form has been on flat tracks. Will the hill stop him, he should have won at Sandown? So was it the bump or the hill? I think I would want a better price about the doubt. Santenay may be a better proposition e/w, he was with the winner at the last, and the hill may favour him more than IF.

If you play be lucky

Well, as intended I have returned to posting on the thread in time for Cheltenham. I have already named 2 horses I considered good bets on Sunday with 1 winning at 11/8 and the other running well below it's best. Now it is time for NH racing at it's highest level.

VDW said that he estimated he bet less than 20% of horses he considered should win. That very disciplined approach is the way to 80% plus winners, but it is something that takes a lot of experience I'm sure and given the amount of years VDW was betting I suspect it took him some time to perfect. Personally, I probably bet more horses I think should win than VDW would approve of though the ultimate target of profit is always attained in the long run. VDW had many approaches, but "class" and "form" were always balanced in much the same way. This balancing act still proves very useful when connected to knowledge of the tricks of the game if you like or how racing really ticks. It took me a long time to see just what VDW was getting at and many points were noted. And there is always more to learn, another point he stressed in fact.

So, here are my views on the first day of the festival for 2003.

The principle race is of course the Champion Hurdle for which all horses are raised in actual race class. Ability wise the top 4 are out of sorts mainly and even Landing Lights 2nd last time doesn't rate as form for this race. Previous runs were dismal really after a good early season in 2001/2002. Scottish Memories is not a form horse either, so we come to Like A Butterfly with a rating of 224 following her win in the Irish Champion narrowly from Limestone Lad (2nd fav for the Stayers hurdle later in the week). Whilst clearly in form, the performance doesn't rate well in comparison to other form horses in this race and previous form is less impressive relative to a class 1740 race.

Next on 217 is Rooster Booster, who has improved in these last two seasons and remains unbeaten this year with 4 wins including a handicap on the course with topweight and the Bula back in December. Dropped for a prep run last time, he was made to work hard at long odds on but it didn't show his real ability. Whilst his form using VDWs approach isn't impressive, he has shown good times and performed as the markets suggested he should.

Scolardy and Marble Arch are not form horses, though no doubt Marble Arch may well show more than he has done so far this season.

Intersky Falcon is also unbeaten this season and has improved from 4 to 5 to 6. A winner of a good handicap last season with topweight he started off in Ireland with a win followed by an easy victory at Newcastle. He then went up in class at Kempton 435 beating Satenay and Davenport Milenium both improvers and in form, responding well to a late challenge on ground softer than ideal in the best race he had run in. He also has shown very good times.

The favourite Rhinestone Cowboy is very likely better than he has shown so far, but he has only beaten one horse of any real note and that was a novice with a liking for Wincanton, albeit it a decent novice. He would surely have been better off in the novice event on Tuesday.

So, balancing it all out, to me the horse with the best credentials is Intersky Falcon with the only real danger being Rooster Booster. At the forecast prices, a book with these 2 looks a very good bet to me.

The Arkle Chase has just 9 runners and top rated Adamant Approach has had just 2 chase runs winning only the second of them in a minor race. This is a big step up and whilst he ran a good race in the Supreme Novices hurdle last year, his limited chase form doesn't impress and there are younger more progressive horses in the field. Not a form horse.

The fav Azertyuiop is 2nd rated on 140 and has won all 3 chases as a novice, though again he hasn't beaten anything of much note. Got One Too would be the best he has beaten, but that horse wouldn't figure here. Looking from a speed view, he is top rated, but closely followed by 4th ability rated Impek who has the best chase form so far. Impek went up in class last time at Sandown beating Le Roi Miguel, also in this race and had previously beaten horses such as La Landiere, Vol Solitaire, Palarshan, the latter two on unfavourable terms. Le Roi Miguel was odds on in his first chase in a grade 2 event and then went down to Imek upped in class at Sandown getting a lot of weight.

To me Azertyuiop is possible, but Impek looks to have achieved more over fences. Impek will be a bet for me.

The only other races to hold interest for me after evaluations are the opener in which Back In Front looks a good thing given it's balance of class and form along with Joss Naylor in the handicap chase at 4.00.

So a busy day in contrast to last year with 4 bets worth making in my view. Whilst it would be impossible to note down my full thinking on these races, I hope I have offered a bit more insight into the approach I take when going through form. The ratings part of the method is not just relevant to the race being run today. It is an ongoing process.

Have a good day all.