Barney,

Again with my `novice` head on and bearing in mind all my comments are after the event (hindsight) I feel there was the possibility of highlighting GM as the probable winner in the race.

Am I right in thinking one way to narrow the field is by identifying horses that cannot win ? Many may say doing that is opinion not fact and is therefore not VDW methodology.

Anyway, I immediately ruled out Lord of the River even though there was significant market support all week. I just couldn`t see any horse winning such a tough race after 1074 days off the track.

All horses with ability (not in 1st 6 in f/c) I believe had factors against, primarily out of form.

What of the horses prominent in the f/c ?

Tremalt (14) (90) - unlucky last yr. Loves Kempton. Won (just held on) last time in fast run race. OR today = 137. Never won off this mark. Is he improving at age of 11 ?

Red Striker (11) (78) - won gde 2 last time. 13lbs more today. Also, is going soft enough, ie - will they go too fast on this sharp track ?

Paperising & Occold - not for me !

G McBride (5) (47) - massive step up in class. That said, clearly on the upgrade judging by improvement in OR, Topspeed and Postmark ratings.

Is that enough to justify naming him a probable? For me no ( my opinion ), HOWEVER

To quote VDW and more recently Guest " TRAINER HAS A MAJOR PART TO PLAY IN VDW METHODOLOGY "

Points I feel worth a mention,

a) GM has been favourite on his last 4 runnings
b) GM has been heavily supported all week
c) trainer knows how to win this race
d) trainer had 5 entries orignally
e) jockey riding at 10-03, how often

All those points I feel could have tipped the balance in making GM a probable winner in the race.

NB - the figures in brackets are consistency and ability ratings.

All that said, the massive step up in class may kave led me to the conclusion - no bet.

*** GM has certainly proved he can win in this class and although a massive hike by the H`capper is obvious the future placing of this horse will be of great interest.

Regards,

Determined,
There was no "winner in the race" in the Racing Post chase. So as you point out, while its easy to be clever with hindsight, by not betting on the Racing Post chase you displayed admirable temperament, a quality more than neccessary to come to grips with VDW. For every Gunther McBride or Ideal du bois bleury there are an awful lot of Farmer Jacks. No one ever remembers their Farmer jacks though.
Regards,

determined

gunther mcbride was,in my opinion, A WINNER IN A RACE,not as you point out the winner in a race.but who cares what do i know?

statajack,
your experienc of vdw far outweighs mine,what proportion are the farmer jacks to gunther's??

guest,
with regard to the class of opponent that giocomo ran against,i notice that the winner is now 25/1 in the triumph in places whilst the above is,in places, as low as 10's. with the ease of that victory is there any chance of a reversal??

Comments on recent posts,

MTOTO

I pleased you are reading my posts. I was aware of the `bounce` factor with regards horses running well after a layoff but not in the way you suggest it may have effected SP at Musselburgh. A big thank you for bringing it to my attention. I will certainly be bearing it in mind in the future. I will also be re-reading Nick Mordin`s book on Time as it covers the `bounce` factor.

Am I right in thinking you average a 50% strike rate on your investments. If that is the case especially given the races I believe you consider ( hcaps judging by the winners you listed for evaluation) then I hold my hat out to you. I`ll be striving to achieve that strike rate this coming flat season.

Assessing ability – Guest remains adamant VDW would still use the value of a race to assess ability. I`m certainly not in Guest`s league and I doubt if I ever will be but there must be benefit in also considering many other factors when assessing ability namely the OR of the horses in the race, grade of track, time of race, etc.
Just a thought as I am not sufficiently versed to offer hard opinion.

SWISH

- unlucky with Eau de Cologne

-your comments on speed figures have maintained my determination to use them in my search for winners
- I`m trying to obtain a copy of M Pipe`s biography, any ideas ?

-you have received many encouraging messages from numerous members with regards your continued hard work. I echo all the good things they all say. Thanks.

GUEST

2.00 Kemp` - your comments with regards the conflict to the numerical picture are noted.

2.30 Kemp` - 7 lbs aside I strongly felt the sharp track would suit SR far better than GG. When watching the race SR never jumped a twig despite which he still had every chance 2 out. SR has certainly got an engine but jumping is the name of the game. Your later comments with regards GG previous race and the starting price and the way he won are noted. I have certainly learned something there. Thanks.

Non hcaps – evaluating these races is new to me, ie – spent 20 years trying to sort out hcaps. The more I read the more I become convinced that the 80% winner brigade must be finding the majority of their winners here. Armaturk and Bacchanel being 2 recent eg`s you have named, ie – class/form horses with all the factors going there way.

Hcaps – taking the basic ability and consistency ratings will not I believe isolate the probables. A combination of both Roushayd ( last 3 runs ), ability and consistency maybe the answer. You`ve used the words `trickery` and `illusion` and I couldn`t agree more. I`ve had reasonable success down the years but I hope that success may just be the start.

Final 2 fur`s – certainly not black and white.

Trainer won race before – both P Nicholls and V Williams have recently won the same race again. Trainers are certainly creatures of habit .

Regards,

Determined.

What do you know ? Reading your posts I would say you are alot further on than me with regards understanding VDW.

Regards,

Hi Determined,

You make a very valid point regarding trainers. They are creatures of habit. Think about it most have been in the game for some years and many learnt the craft from their fathers. Look at the winner of most big handicaps and you will find it going to one of the top trainers that take the spoils. Take the Racing Post Chase for instance. Checking the stats for this race form over the course and distance is a very strong pointer and it was not hard to whittle the field down using this one factor alone. Another factor in Gunthers favour was he was highly consistent and could be argued to be in the same vain as Little Nugget in so much as VDW stated that consistent horses have to be respected. I would say that Gunther was the most likely winner but not one that I was prepared to risk my money on, although I did give my father-in-law the "tip" and he put £10 on it and then proceeded to pay for my beer on Saturday night! so not all bad! If you look at many of VDW's selections it becomes obvious that the trainers intention is there for all to see, Prominent King, Rifle Brigade and to a lesser extent Orchestra to name a few. At the end of the day it is all about balancing the factors. I think it was Lee who said that it depends what you want from VDW. Guest has obviously gone to extreme effort in working out VDW's methods others have found success with just one of VDW's methods it really is down to the individual what he or she wants to get out of it. I would say that a solid grasp of just the basics will get you a long way, for instance who can argue that consistent horses consistently win races? VDW showed us areas that are alive with winners and even though you may not get to Guest's level or the 80-90% strike rate, as long as you use commen sense and intelligent jugdement you can not go far wrong

Hi,

The book being refered to is called "Martin Pipe The Champion Trainers Story" by Richard Pitman, published I think in 1992, I'm not sure as I do not have my copy to hand at present. Martin Pipe discusses at length the life of his father David Pipe, a millionaire, many times over, and a regular board bookie all over the West Country circuits. He was renowed as being the shrewdest of businessmen, and a person who knew more about betting and bookmaking than almost anyone. He established, with his son Martin, a chain of 37 betting shops in the West Country, eventually selling out to William Hill for a cool one million in 1972, at least ten million by todays values!! However only 36 shops were sold to Hills, David retaining one shop in Taunton. Pipe senior states in the book that it is far easier to prosper in racing if you have realistic expectations. It is no good hoping to win a fortune every week, though it is not unrealistic to expect to win a regular wage from racing. Wise words indeed and ones that VDW knew only too well and tried to get this point across to us. Unfortunately most punters do not respect money, even though it may have taken them ages to earn it. Peter Scudamore one of the greatest jump jockeys and long time stable jockey for Pipe, in an interview shortly after his retirement, was asked who was the most influential person in the Pipe camp. Without hesitation he stated the name "David Pipe", as he was in Scudamore's opinion, the shrewdest men he had ever met, and one who understood racing and punters, better than racing and punters themselves. For me and I guess most on this board a lot of what has been said about David Pipe would also go to Van der Wheil. For me he was the most influential person I had ever had the good fortune to have come across. Although obviously never in person, through his articles and I will be forever grateful for his words, and inparting his unrivaled knowlegde. I leave you with one of the most important lessons I have learnt in my long racing "career" a lesson I would have probabley never learnt without VDW. Most people are casual punters, they punt. Serious punters see the opportuntity and do everything they can to narrow the field, eliminate the risks they can control, and in process, put the odds in their favour and against the bookmaker.

2 very interesting posts which I have thoruoghly enjoyed reading.

My ambition in life is to live off racing.We can all dream. I`m 38 yrs old therefore there is plenty of time for me to reach my goal.

My work commitments have ruled my life for the past 2 years but no more. I`ve got a life again and all my spare time will be put into seeking the further knowledge I require to help me achieve my goal.

Regards

It may never happen but it will not be through lack of hard work.

Statajack makes a very good point regarding Gunther Mcbride and Farmer Jack. However, with experience it is possible to weed out the "losers" amongst these type of animals. One point to bear in mind is something that VDW said a long time ago and is one of my favourite quotes because it says so much about the way to be thinking. He asked "How many times have you witnessed a so called 'good thing' come unstuck only to find it in the winners enclosure next time when nobody wanted to back it ?". If you look at it another way, here is my own question "How many times have you witnessed a 12/1 shot run into a place in a good race, only to get beaten next time when favourite ?"

This years Racing Post Chase was a very poor renewal. If you refer to last years race where a similiar type to Gunther Mcbride was Struggles Glory, but the race was full of much better animals than this years race. GM was certainly the most likely from the 3 probables with Lord Of The River off far too long and Occold having no chance at all really. GM was not strong enough to bet for me though on some other points.

Barney - The trainer of the horse referred to made note of the fact that his horse was giving significant weight to Saturdays winner last time. Next time they meet, it will be on better terms for his horse, but there will be other factors as always to take into account.

Determined - Continue to observe temperament and you dream will be within reach. Be prepared for a long journey though, because it doesn't happen overnight.

Hi,

Dont give up on your dream, make it a reality. Look at these two quotes below.

"Back in the old days when I first started, all my buddies would go out drinking and partying while I worked. Now their working and I'm the one having fun" RON RICE

"Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life" CONFUCIUS

And I'll leave you with one last thought.

"Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly" ROBERT F KENNEDY

Dear Determined,
Firstly thank you for your kind words.

Regarding EAU DE COLOGNE to me he was the WINNER IN THE RACE. In other words, I believe that when VDW said that phrase, he meant IT IS A WINNER WAITING TO HAPPEN. It might not necessarily win that particular race. I chatted with Barney in chat room last night about this. He said, "Why did it not win then?” I explained that when I picked COPELAND at 16-1 a while back when it came second, it went on to win its next 2 races at 7-2 and 13-2. Also a while back I highlighted NOSHINNANAKIN 2 races later it won at 9-2. Perhaps I am the only one who interprets it like this, but it works for me.

SPEED FIGS
If you don't know how fast the horse can run how can you know whether it has a chance of winning?
It is no good picking a horse that ran in a £50000 race last time and is in a £3000 race today if its best speed fig is 90 and all the rest have scored 110 or more (just an example).

PIPES BOOK
There is a shop in London that specialises in second hand and out of print racing books. I regret I cannot remember the name but surely, failing that you can find it on Internet.
Failing that, you can order any book ever printed from your local library for £2, (although you have to give it back).
The book is called: MARTIN PIPE, THE CHAMPION TRAINERS STORY published by HEADLINE BOOK PUBLISHING PLC in 1992.
While you are at it get THE BETTING MAN by WILLIAM HILL’S brother. I am sorry I have no more details as I have lent my copy to a friend,
Yours
Swish
p.s. this letter was drafted earlier this evening before Much of a Muchness wrote his interesting letters

Morning all,

Absolutely trowing it down with rain here in S****horpe. The going at Donny this weekend I suspect will be heavy ?

GUEST

Was it the Hollies who said `the road is long and winding`? Yes, I am aware of the task I have set myself. Certainly a mountain to climb at the very least. I best get started.

The question you raise; I`ll be giving it alot of thought.

MOM

Some excellent quotes which I like very much. I`ll remember them.

SWISH

As helpful as ever. I`ll be doing my best to obtain both of those 2 books.

Winner in the race = a winner waiting to happen.
Yes I see what you mean.
I used to take it to mean "never invest on a horse unless it has proved it can do what has been asked of it today".
My reading maybe OK for hcaps but it won`t help in a large % of other races.

Regards,

all the 25's has gone there is a bit of 14's left but now jtfav

Good morning,
Just a simple question?

In the article on the VDW pages I notice that the sequence position 111 ( last 3 runs ) gives a 33% hit when followed NTO. Has this over time reduced as a NTO hit rate or has it steadied. Wonder if anyone with a RSB could tell me.
I asked someone a while ago to look at this and although I did not see a printout, they said there was a steady decline.

none

Good morning,
Just a simple question?

In the article on the VDW pages I notice that the sequence position 111 ( last 3 runs ) gives a 33% hit when followed NTO. Has this over time reduced as a NTO hit rate or has it steadied. Wonder if anyone with a RSB could tell me.
I asked someone a while ago to look at this and although I did not see a printout, they said there was a steady decline.
All the best
Paul e.y

none

Any Thoughts on the 3.40 at Lingfield today.
Bank on Him seems to have alot going for him
but what about the others like Chief Cashier.
I think they have chance so i think its one
to leave alone for me.

Maggsy

paul
I think its something like 27% now for last
3 wins now.I posted this about 2 months ago
if you want to check.It may have changed
because horses have their OR raised faster
for winning now .

Maggsy

Hi Maggsy
Ta for the reply

Paul e.y


none

Dear Determined,
It probably means what you said as well,
Yours
Swish