Titus
Watch out for them snakes.

Guest,
Well Done !

Graham

Johnd
Good luck with your 80%ers,I think you may be gambling with the 2yo but that's just my opinion.

I’m in agreement with John here, although I couldn’t back it at the likely price. I would want Evens.

It’s worth noting that like Attraction yesterday, who is a February foal, Kheleyf today is a January foal. He’s only had the one run when well backed and won very easily, and WILL improve. I’d be extremely surprised if this colt does not win today.

Ascot 3.45

Black Sam Bellamy c/f - Mamool 2nd c/f - Mr Dinos 3rd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Pole Star (6), Fight Your Corner (12), Mamool (6), Mr Dinos (7) - 41% (74%)

3 most cons field - as above + Alcazar (4), Savannah Bay (7) - 61%

BSB was caught out against stronger opposition than at the Curragh last time. This is a drop in class but up a mile in trip and he hasn't shown he wants the distance. He doesn't feature in the cons horses either.

Mamool showed very good form fto when overhauling horses such as Warrsan and Bollin Eric at York over 1m 6f. He won at this meeting last year over 2m, leading some way out and holding Mr Dinos in the Queens Vase. He was later dropped back in trip up in class in the Leger with Mr Dinos just behind. Mr Dinos also showed up well fto when winning at Sandown over 2m, but the form isn't exciting.

Mamool looks a good thing and there is every chance it won't even be favourite.

Ascot 3.05

Ocean Silk c/f - Summitville 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Inchberry (8), Ocean Silk (4), Spanish Sun (3) - 47% (58%)

3 most cons field - Moonsprite (5), Ocean Silk (4), Spanish Sun (3) - 51%

Ocean Silk is lightly raced and progressive, though stepping up in class and trip here. The opposition includes Mezzo Soprano who was fav to win at Goodwood having dropped in class from the Guineas and 2nd c/f Summitville who ran very well in the Oaks at 25/1, as did Inchberry at 100/1.

Ocean Silk looks a very probable winner, but there are a couple of factors that don't go in her favour. She is going up in race class and trip and against 2 horses dropping in class and she will be much shorter market wise than last time. One to let run.

Ascot 4.20

Highland Games c/f - Famous Grouse 2nd c/f - Chief Yeoman/Fabulous Jet 3rd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Blythe Knight (7), Etesaal (5), Fantastic Love (5), Chief Yeoman (11), Highland Games (7), Bowing (7) - 30% (64%)

3 most cons field - Risk Taker (7), Blythe Knight (7), Etesaal (5), Famous Grouse (4), Fantastic Love (5), Rahaf (7), Highland Games (7), Cill Droichead (7), Fabulous Jet (5), Bowing (7) - 65%

A chance for a 3 horse book with Highland Games, Chief Yeoman and Fabulous Jet here. Highland Games looks most likely, but I prefer to include his 2 main dangers at the prices.

Ascot 5.30

Chinkara c/f - Self Evident 2nd c/f - Emran 3rd c/f - Jebal Suraaj 4th c/f

3 most cons f/c - Court Masterpiece (7), Jebal Suraaj (4), Chinkara (6) - 17% (43%)

3 most cons field - Jebal Suraaj (4), Pretence (3), Contractor (5) - 21%

Chinkara didn't win at 2 from 5 starts, but has improved at 3 winning 3 times including 2 hcps latterly a better class race at Goodwood at 10/1. His wins have been at Lingfield, Kempton and Goodwood.

I'm surprised little has been said about the draw factor as the first 2 days have clearly shown there is a benefit for good horses racing under the near rail over the straight course. The draw is a factor that I rarely consider if I have found a selection with sufficient class and form to override it. Some courses do have a bias, but the horse has to be good enough in the first place to capitalize. In this race, many of the c/fs and fancied horses are drawn on the far side and few of them make enough appeal on class and form to overcome what could be a disadvantage. At the prices, and still with an eye firmly on class/form and trainers' tricks I have selected 4 to make a book with namely Mujared/Commission/Emran and Court Masterpiece.

Ascot 4.55

Sublimity c/f - Tuning Fork 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Always Esteemed (9), Evolving Tactics (13), Sublimity (6), Tuning Fork (9) - 37% (75%)

3 most cons field - Nopekan (5), Persian Majesty (3), Sublimity (6) - 44%

Sublimity is up in class here and distance, but has shown clear signs that 10f will be very suitable and he is progressive and consistent. Tuning Fork showed very good form for a 2nd run when 2nd in the Dante but flopped badly at Newmarket dropped a long way in class next time. Ironically the winner had also flopped badly at odds on previously after being raised in class and trip. It will be surprising if 19 days is enough to have freshened Tuning Fork up. I make Sublimity a good thing here.

A busy sort of day with 2 single bets and 2 books.

Have a good day all.

Guest

I have the same c/fs as you in the two handicaps, but sadly Chinkara is now a non runner (as indeed is Commission, one of your proposed book). I have New Seeker above Self Evident in the form horse rankings and thus now for me the c/f, though not well drawn.

As regards the 4.20, I have Fantastic Love as the 2nd c/f.

In the 3.45, for what it is worth David Lyons says Mamool is Godolphin's banker of the meeting, but he was also strong on Moon Ballad!

Good luck today.

Guest / Fulham,

Thanks for your thoughts on the days racing and good luck Guest with your bets.

Looks like another losing day for me then as I, EVER THE THE NOVICE, whilst having the same class/form horses have backed the following

Mr Dinos ( Mamool not to stay ?? ) and a book with Emran, Self Evident and Jebal Suraaj. I accept the draw has proved influential this week to date but I hold the view that JS from stall 29 will try to make all on the far rail thus keeping those drawn high well in touch.

Its all about opinions I guess,

Good luck to all,

Guest

Hope you and yours are well and happy.

Well Done with Nayef!

Can I ask, does Nayef fall into the category of good thing which puts in a bad one and is rested? Or was it that LTO SP told the tale? or perhaps both?

All the best
hedgehog

Can I ask the panel why you thought
mamool and sublimity would get the distance.

didnt VDW say back only horses tha thave done it in public

my good thing today was nuit sombre but a rea l bad price.

 RIPON, 19 Jun 2003, 3:55, Ingham & Co And R.L. Davison & Co Handicap (Class C) (3yo,0-90),Winner £9,343.80,1m GD-FM, 8 Runners Handicap

 Nuit Sombre,,..................................Form 6*¬8*¬2*  (16*)  sp lto 12/1 ln 8* Av = 26k** , Ab = 3k  Score=5+0
 100%  91B 10f 2*/½L 9rs**  GF Yor  15K    (5 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 15K to 9.3k,  No improv
 136%  81C 7f 8*/4 16rs  Gd Eps  23K    (13 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 252%  86B 9f 6*/4 12rs  Gd Goo  40K    (30 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (100%) 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Fulham:
Guest

I have the same c/fs as you in the two handicaps, but sadly Chinkara is now a non runner (as indeed is Commission, one of your proposed book). I have New Seeker above Self Evident in the form horse rankings and thus now for me the c/f, though not well drawn.

As regards the 4.20, I have Fantastic Love as the 2nd c/f.

In the 3.45, for what it is worth David Lyons says Mamool is Godolphin's banker of the meeting, but he was also strong on Moon Ballad!

Good luck today.

---

Well done with your New Seeker & Fantastic Love c/f.
I hope u backed em.

Fulham,

Ditto Bio.

I hope you were on both FL and NS.

BT/Determined


Thanks. I only backed them modestly, given the nature of the races, and was very lucky in that the two winners got home by inches.

The two today, coupled with the Hunt Cup yesterday, won by the c/f with the 2nd c/f 3rd, show the power of VDW's approach, of which class/form is the heart. It doesn't work out every time, as the 4.55 on Tuesday demonstrated, with Hazim and Muhareb failing to show when it mattered. But it works out often enough.

Fulham
I'm glad you had a good day.

Fulham,

Pleased you backed them. Modest stakes given the races in question I agree is the sensible way.

With regards the CLASS / FORM approach. If this past 10 days ( based on the class / form horses primarily named by you and Guest )hasn`t satisfied the doubters then I don`t what will.

All I have to do now is strive to reach the standards set by you, Guest and those out there who have have mastered the method`s.

Good luck to you all.

Dr Fulham,

You put your finger on 26pts @ SP.

"The boy done well".

Hedgehog - Various fcators, but those two definitely came into it.

Fulham - Well done today. I agree that I messed up with Fantastic Love who was a form horse and therefore the 2nd c/f horse. New Seeker didn't quite make the cut though even after re-evaluation. He did have class though and showed up the draw factor. My book was decimated by non runners and it taught me a lesson in the process.

On reflection, not a good days evaluations with one risky proposition in particular that should have been well left alone. Sublimity had factors against especially at the price, and should have been left for much the same reasons as Ocean Silk was. The only thing I got right today was to lay the fav in the first.

Still, bet I don't feel as miffed as Fran Ferris.

Investor/Determined/III

Cheers. (And Determined, well done with Mr Dinos. I was with Guest in thinking Mamool a good thing.)


III

If you are still betting at sp, you should seriously consider opening a Betfair account. In these big handicaps horses that are not the subject of major gambles are always points higher on Betfair: this morning New Seeker was freely available at 25.0 (24/1). Even on Fantastic Love, which was a Pricewise selection and thus prone to shorten, 12.5 (11.5/1) was easily available. The downside is that one can't always do as well on the place parts of EW bets, as the place markets on Betfair are very much thinner than the win markets.

Guest

Or as those (fortunately I wasn't one) who backed Ferris's horse. One takes falls, unseatings and brought downs in one's stride, but to "lose" in situations like that must be very hard to stomach. John McCririck talks a lot of rubbish ("you can discount all those drawn above 10 in the Britannia"), but in arguing that the sort of thing Ferris did requires a much more substantial punishment than 21 days he is surely spot on.

Guest or who ever can be botherd.
How many times have I asked a simple question just to be ignored.


if i had a fiver for each time I would have about 20 quid.

go on. a straight questin can I have a sraight answer.
how did you know that those 2 horses mamool and sublimity would get the trip just by reading the form.
because they didnt.
and vdw would not have backed them because there was no form to say that they would get the trip.
so what bit in he form told you theat they would.

thankyou

quote:

---

Originally posted by Nessie:
Guest or who ever can be botherd.
How many times have I asked a simple question just to be ignored.


if i had a fiver for each time I would have about 20 quid.

go on. a straight questin can I have a sraight answer.
how did you know that those 2 horses mamool and sublimity would get the trip just by reading the form.
because they didnt.
and vdw would not have backed them because there was no form to say that they would get the trip.
so what bit in he form told you theat they would.

thankyou

---

Nessie
I personally must admit to thinking Mr.Dinos was a good thing today, as I thought his last race was the best form in the field.I also thought that Sublimitys race was a no bet.I only had a modest stake on Mr Dinos.In summing up though I have had a couple of dodgy bets this week when I should have left the races alone(Desert Destiny+Moon Ballad).
For tomorrow I think my best bet will be man of the moment-Mark Johnstons Shanty Star.He also seems to have a tremendous set of 2 y'olds with many still to run.This weeks Weekender gives you MJ in Straight from the Stable and he names the best of them.An interesting piece of info I gleaned from the article is that his winner today Russian Valour (2 Y'old mind) is 30 kilos heavier than Desert Deer who is huge himself.I read an great piece somewhere saying that big horses had a big advantage over little ones(generally)
so I will follow RV's career with a keen eye as MJ states that he would be unbeaten had he not thrown away 2 races by veering sharply