Does anyone know if Tony Peach,is still writing or taking an interest in racing?After all these years I thought he may have revealed a bit more about vdw.What harm could it possibly do at this stage.

Pipedreamer

Mr Peach is still very much involved and he and his company (Moss Publications) have published several booklets this year (see the "VDW/Moss Publications" section of the Browzers website).

Thanks Fulham,I will,do you know has he referred to vdw in any of these publications.

Pipedreamer

I haven't read any of the newest ones yet, and suppose I should, in case (as with "The Silver Lining"), there turns out to be something important in amongst the reprints and "interpretations". But I think the answer must be yes. When you access the Browsers site, see for example the details of the booklet entitled "Sad Ken", which is about VDW and sfs.

Thanks Fulham,for that,I will try and check it out.

Fulham et al,

Had a look and found this....

quote:

---

MARVEX. BETTING FOR PROFIT. [5987]

42pp. Booklet. £8.00

The first book on betting written on 1948 by Marvex, an accountant with a penchant for getting to the nitty-gritty in an interesting and absorbing way. Similar in many respects to the Van der Wheil style of writing. In this book he gives his thoughts on all the important aspects of winner finding and even the widest-read punter will find at least one other slant on racing matters that still matter!

---

Have you read these ?
Any view on the VDW reference .

cheers IMP

IMP

No, I've never read anything by Marvex, so can't offer any sort of comment on content. At a guess, I would think the VDW reference is to try to sell some otherwise undistinguished, and now rather elderly, booklets.

it's more likely that's where the Handicap Book got the idea from when they invented VDW,

now that would be really funny

Precisely !!




tc

A dog barks,the wind blows and the caravan moves on.

This thread goes around in circles,and we keep ending up in the same place.

TC,

It has been a little while since you offered to bring this thread back to life. What's happened, have you decided against the project, or realised it is too big a task?

EC,

I notice on another message board you state the method of judging class in VDW is flawed. I was wondering if you have any thoughts on showing us a better method? I have to admit I'm not that happy with the method for the same reasons. Do you realise VDW gave an other method? The trouble is it is very easy to say that's flawed the whole thing must be flawed. Ok how do you judge class, purely on speed?

What part of VDW don't you like? Is it the selection of good consistent horse, with proven ability, running in good class races? I find it hard to believe it could be that.

Is it the fact that at times it flies in the face of normal thinking? Fulham pointed out to you a horse that had won it's last 3 races wasn't a form horse (a fact he mentioned on a thread on this forum before the race, I think). Have you had a look at the horse again to find out why it wasn't a form horse in VDW and Fulham's eyes?

Today I had Azertyuiop as a non form horse and he was dropping in class the VDW way, and of course he had won his last 3 races.

It is obvious you know your way around the form book. It would be interesting to engage you in some dialogue on your real thoughts on VDW. All I ask is you don't just say it's b*****s because it isn't. Ok I think some of the thinking is outdated, but the basics are sound. This is horse racing and there will always be different opinions, you think weight is important, I don't even look at the weight to be carried. So we disagree on that, but I think we both make money.

Hope you see this as I won't post on that other board.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Surely class is judging how close up the runners are behind the winner waste of time backing a horse just because it ran in a high class race if it only finished down the field beaten 30 lnths there are a lot of other reasons not to back a horse that ran in a higher class race check the rest of the runners that were near the class.

have fun

No - to either !

The problem is, that tho I use and respect VDW principles, I dont use "Class/Form" at the "Sharp End", -

There are many more factors which alert me to a Race, mostly revolving around "Trainers Intentions" (was that a VDW phrase?), - and the Class/Form aspect, is usualy tagged on at the end of the evaluation.

Many of the factors that I use have been refered to in VDWs writing, but they seem to be dismissed as irrelevent by the "Class/Form" brigade, and any attempt to introduce them, is met with aggresion.

I would love to try and propound what I believe is a "real"- VDW approach to analising a race,but I fear it is doomed on this thread, without constructive input, - I see few members prepared to do that !

OK -

The last thing that I do the Night - before - I go to bed

is to print out a set of Massey Ratings -

Shock Horror !! what has this to do with VDW ??

Quote - "I use two sets of Ratings- compiled on different lines"

tc

TC,

I have to agree there has been little input apart from the established contributors. I can't agree about any ideas being meet with aggression, at the worse indifference. I feel that has been because most of the ideas have been based on one element/factor of the teachings. VDW said on many occasions no one factor by it's self is strong enough.

I think the explaining of the c/form factor has/will take the thinking to another level, and show the people that tried before to just use the bare rating it is not enough.

The only problem I can see with using the AM ratings is the fact that you don't know what factors are used to formulate them, and they could change or be withdrawn at any time.

The trouble with trying to gauge trainers intentions is has the horse proven he has the class to win the targeted race, or is it all pie in the sky? I can understand on occasions a horse is run at an unsuitable track or over the wrong distance, but with some trainers it seems to happen to often. They can't be continually hiding the form, I do think in some case they just don't know.

Michael,

I can only agree with you, but why use the last race only? The only time VDW uses the last race only to judge class is the Roushayd method. There the horse has to improve and then be dropped in class. Do you think prize money is the best way to judge class? Do you think only winning is a fair reference to a horses class? I agree winning is the name of the game, but does this ability rating ensure you really are on the horse with the strongest will to win? VDW said it was an easy way to judge a horses ability not the only way.

Be Lucky

Mtoto sayd....

quote:

---

The only problem I can see with using the AM ratings is the fact that you don't know what factors are used to formulate them

---

quote:

---

The computer program works by analysing each previous performance of each horse in a race. It assigns a rating to each of these previous performances. These ratings are then used to generate a rating for the current race. The ratings are then sorted into order, to give the predicted finishing order for the race.
The program has been developed by analysing thousands of actual results from previous seasons. This has allowed the formula used to generate the ratings to be refined continually.

I have been working on the program for about 10 years now (I am actually a computer programmer by profession). I started by concentrating on a small subset of all horse races (flat races for 2-year-old horses). When I had developed a program which worked for these races, I gradually extended it. I now predict all types of horse races (both flat races and national hunt races). In fact, I have hardly changed the program in the last 5 years.

I maintain a database of all previous horse races results. The ratings are based entirely on previous race course performances and conditions of the race being predicted (i.e.. distance, weights, draw ...). The program does not use anything like my opinion or any trainer's or jockey's opinion. All I do to generate the ratings is to input details of the race to be predicted and run the program.

Note that I am not willing to give away any more details about how the program works. Everything else is a secret. The program is not for sale.

---

from his website .

cheers IMP

"VDW" -

"Quote" - "I use 2 sets of Ratings compiled on "Different Basis" -"

0k - so Massey is not the "Be all - and - end all " of _Ratings - !

so - !

I am playing with a number of others ! -

How about something simple like - the D Mail ratings !!

Certainly , I take them into account !!

Dot 78 when it is miles clear, is a good pointer !



VDW - to my mind is not about a "Formula" - but about an approuch, and "ALL" the writings need to be read, - giving weight, to all his - "Suggestions" -

Where the "emphasis" is placed is a matter for - "Debate"

tc

alternative "Ratings" -

Clearly "VDW" - made use of "Speed" Ratings -

see "Rouyshard" - "Improving Horse" -

I see them, - as a - "Third" Rating,- to take into account !!



tc

ps,

Sorry, - But I can't find a "Link" - to "Rouyshard" - anybody ???



[This message was edited by Tuppenycat on November 06, 2003 at 08:02 PM.]

TC,

I wasn't having a go at AM's ratings. I was just trying to point out if you follow VDW's lead, and use 2 ratings compiled on different lines how do you do that if you don't know how the ratings are formulated? I agree Formcast are also a very good rating, but how many of the same factors are used by both? More importantly exactly what factors are used?

VDW used his own ratings so he knew exactly what was involved. I am 100% sure one of the ratings was speed based, but I don't think it was just the bare s/f.

Yes, VDW is an approach to a race, but he also gave us a formula to work to. Using that formula helps us to be methodical, and balance all the factors. Not placing more emphasis on any one element, but looking at them all.

The only place I have seen the Roushayd method explained is in his literature. It is rather long to expect anyone to type it out though.

Be Lucky

TC
I agree with you about it being an approach to guide you in the right direction and what to look out for what might be hidden in the race use the tools at hand what ever they are be it ratings, tipsters, or racing papers with the amount of things around now you can take your pick.

Mtoto
I only look at the last race to see what class it was running in because it may have been out classed by being in a grade to high if it ran well i put it on a short list to double check and assess against any others i have put down,
with ref to prize money being a good guide i would say yes as the owners want the money and if the best horses win then that adds value to them at stud some times it can look straight forward and other times not keep an eye open for improving types from good trainers see if they have won the race before and with what kind of horse as they say some trainers make a b line for some races i think that's what VDW
mean't when he said see how they place their horses.

have fun

Hi Mtoto

Why don't you like the other board?..lol

Yes I think prize money won is flawed. because it is not tied in to class or you would have handicappers that are rated 80 looking better horses than 110 rated horses if the 80 horse wins a £30k+ handicap carrying 8-00 and the 110 horse wins a £15k class B stakes race. There is no way that the handicapper is a classier or better horse..it's nonsensical really.

WEIGHT

Two horses finish in a dead heat, one is carrying 2 stone more than the other, which horse wins next time at levels?

If weight doesn't matter why do trainers use apprentices to take weight off horses. Why don't you ever see K Fallon riding 14lb's overweight in handicaps? surely if weight is not relevant you might as well always use the best jockey available. In fact why do apprentices get weight allowances if they are irrelevant.

Why does AP McCoy starve himself for one week to do 10 stone in a big race when he could just let his weight balloon to 12 stone..because weight doesn't matter?

Are all these trainers/jockeys wrong, it's one hell of a lot of time and effort spent for no reason?

CLASS/FORM

One way of giving a "class" rating would be to use the best horse in a race as the marker. In a handicap class D worth £5k you might have the best horse rated 85 and in a race of the same value another day it may only have the best horse rated 78. Both races are classed as D and have the same £ value but one race has better horses competing in it.

An idea I posted on RSUK was a recent class/form rating based on the last 3 races, this could be used based on all a horses form if necessary or the last 12 months or whatever takes your fancy.

eg

HORSE A
last 3 runs
1) 2nd of 10 in a race where the best horse was 85 rated
2) 3rd of 9 in a race where the best horse was rated 80
1st of 10 in a race where the best horse was rated 83

In Race 1) it beat 8 of it's 9 opponents or 88% of them. The best horse in the race was rated 85 so we give Horse A a rating of 88% of 85 = 75

In Race 2) it beat 6 of 8 opponents or 75% of them. The best horse in the race was rated 80 so we give horse A a rating of 75% of 80 = 60

In Race 3) it beat all 9 of it's opponents or 100% of them. The best horse in the race was rated 83 so we give horse A a rating of 100% of 83 = 83

So Horse A has a best recent class/form rating of 83.

This could be used to compare it to it's overall form or just used as a stand alone rating but represents a numerical view of what the horse has recently done and to me is far more representative of class/form than juggling around with £'s. Do it with a horse for each 12 month period of it's form and you have a way of keeping a track of whether a horse is progressive or regressive.

You could rate all horses in a race like this and then narrow it down to study the top 3 or 4 with whatever form method you wanted.


VDW

No such person, he was invented to liven up the then flagging systems forum in the Handicap Book.

The ideas weren't original either as they used Earnings Per Start in America years before, EPS is actually a better way of measuring class and consistency than the watered down version of wins/£ put forward by VDW method.

In the US EPS is not used as much now as purse values differ to much from one state to the next.

It's time people forgot all this nostalgia for the early 80's and realised that VDW utterings were nothing special and can be improved upon in giant leaps with a little bit of logical thought.

Time to move on from old fashioned, flawed methods that belong in the era of Night Nurse and co..and they never worked then either except after the race had been run..cherry picking is what the whole thing is based on.