The 3.50 at Punchestown could be a very interesting race for VDW'ers. There are 3 horses with the form figures 111, and "only one chance in a hundred that the winner will come from elsewhere".
Brave Inca is the clear class horse, won in the highest class lto, is improving, in form, and is probably a stand-out bet for many who think that is where the appraisal finishes. However, it doesn't (IMO), and I think he may be found wanting.

Brave Inca just got home by the narrowest of margins. It is no coincidence that the first 3 places were filled by the 3 horses with the 111 form figures.

quote:

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Originally posted by johnd:
The 3.50 at Punchestown could be a very interesting race for VDW'ers. There are 3 horses with the form figures 111, and "only one chance in a hundred that the winner will come from elsewhere".

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If ever there was one bit of VDW which was a fallacy then that was it.

Rob

Rob
There is far more wisdom in that statement than many ever realise, but that is also true of much of VDW's work.
Maybe it would help the doubters to reason out why he went to such lengths to stress the importance of consistency. If they ever figure out that part of his method, they may begin to appreciate the beautifully simple logic behind his whole approach.

JIB
Our old friend Somnus runs tomorrow (3.00 York, RP f/c 14/1), and he is the clear class horse. All we need now is a little rain.

Why did vdw reason that Roushayd was at concert pitch for the Old Newton Cup?.He thought the horse was a certainty?.Why did he make such a big play about this horse?.

Walter
Glad you brought that up, as Roushayd epitomises much of VDW's work, simple in concept, yet deadly in execution.
I won't give you the whole story, not least because there are still members of the 'secret society' on here who may pass it on to their as yet unenlightened colleagues, but hopefully I will show enough to prove that Roushayd was indeed a good thing.
Firstly consistency, Roushayd was a highly consistent horse, but it should be noted that "he needs a race or two before coming to the boil". Those who think consistency is just about adding up form figures should ponder that sentence carefully, not only may they find the answer to other VDW examples,they might also begin to realise there is much more substance to his understanding of form than such as Clive Holt's. ( A ridiculous comparison).
Secondly ability, Roushayd had shown form in much higher class than this race, culminating in a win in class 641 the previous season, ( ONC class 170), showing that today's class was no problem if he was on song.
Thirdly capability, all his 3 previous wins had been in similar circumstances to today's so course,distance, and going, held no terrors for him.
Fourthly probability, in his previous race he had shown that he was running into form; although beaten 9l it should be noted that he was ridden from off the pace, had been thrown wide by the quirky Epsom course, and was meeting much better opposition than in the ONC. His s/f also confirmed that this was an improved run. He was also dropped in class for today's race.
Lastly, the hard work was simply a matter of applying the above criteria to the opposition, and thus eliminating them.

The reason he made such a big play about this example was that it extended much of what he had previously written about his method, and also gave a greater insight into how he read and understood form.
For those who doubt the present day efficacy of his approach, I will give some recent examples.
Gatwick (w 11/2 Sat), very much a Roushayd type, and an outstanding bet even for those with only an elementary knowledge of his approach.
Powerscourt (w 0/3 Sunday) A little more subtle this, but many aspects of Roushayd, and, given the prize, fitness could be reasonably guaranteed.
Barolo (w 7/1 Thursday) even more subtle, but the fact remains that from the first 6 in the betting, the only horse at the races.
All winners after the race, and all therefore open to question as pre-race selections, but all eminently checkable against the above criteria, and in that respect, (IMO), far more useful as a guide than ploughing through 25 year old examples.
Is there any wonder that I get frustrated by the apparent lack of interest on this thread?

Apparent lack of interest on this thread.

john - as I suggested yesterday on the fineform thread - I think the problem is that among the current crop of members - there are few who have even heard of VDW, let alone read his writings !!

Come on and prove me wrong folks !!

I agree that the thread should be transfered to the open forum, as I don't think that it can be revived "in house".

Hello Tuppenycat,
I have made the VDW thread open to all members and put a notice on the front page of the website so we will see what happens.

Gummy

I have to admit to have never have heard of VDW. Reading through the posts now though. its going take a while

TC/GUMMY
It's good to see that this thread has been opened up a little, and hopefully it will have the desired effect. One thing is certain, it would never have grown to the proportions it did if members had found no value in it.
PILLY
To read all the way through this thread would be a mammoth task, much like reading through the old form books and checking his examples to try and understand his method,
As one who has done both in the past, may I suggest that it is not only unnecessary, but it may also lead you to a false conclusion, as it has with many others.
Far better to begin by accepting what VDW said, that the answer is simple, and to proceed with that in mind at all times.
Initially all you should need is the 'VDW Spells It All Out' letter from The Golden Years Of VDW, and a copy of his Roushayd example. Both are available on the internet, and I will try and put the links on here in the next few days, my technological incompetence allowing.
Once you have read and understood those, apply what you have learned to the 3 examples in my earlier post, and hopefully it will become apparent why they were 3 very comfortable winners.
There IS gold in understanding VDW, but, fortunately, there are many more who fail to understand its worth.
Good luck,
Johnd

Another link - Not the best - But - a Good Starting Point !!

http://racetipsuk.tripod.com/van_der_wheil_method.htm#Van%20Der%20Wheil%20Method


nb.

for some reason it appears, then gets stuck behind all the other windows - you will have to close windows to find it !!

tc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

JIB -

We only resurected this bloody thread - because we recognised that you were suffering from severe - "Withdrawal Symptoms" !!!

Get stuck in !!!

For anyone interested,in my opinion Midnight Ballard has been placed by his trainer to win today at Lingfield 3.20,using one of vdw methods.

Thanks Pipedreamer,

It is indeed refreshing for someone to post a VDW selection BEFORE race time.

JohnD,

I read with interest when you say there is no need to study the old examples, when you have gone into some detail re Roushayd. Surely the only way to get to grips with VDW is to take the old races apart. These are the examples given by VDW, and HIS selections.

I agree Gatwick is a probable VDW selection, but we can only guess. The same can be said for Mine. The fact is we will never know for sure, so isn't better to stick to the selections we are sure of? While you may disagree with much of this thread, there are plenty of ideas, and a fair bit of good sense to be thought about. I have to say on reading some of the posts again. The people you have a go at have written and gone into far more detail than any of your posts. Because of this you can disagree with them, but I do think anyone would be a bit foolish to reject their thinking out of hand.

While I agree with you others may be over complicating things, I don't think it can be described as a simple method. If it is wouldn't more people have solved the problems by now?

With Roushayd you say the course was ok. Could you explain why you think this? He had won at Bath, Goodwood, and Ascot. None are flat galloping tracks. If he was ridden in a different way how would you know if you don't read the form book? I'm happy with Roushayd even though I have him going UP in class, but as he is the best horse in this race it counts as a drop. Something to do with the class of the horse is different to the class of the race.

I must admit I had to smile when you say you won't share your knowledge/thoughts with folk who have spent many hours studying VDW. But you expect THEM to share with people who have done nothing in the way of study.

Finally you say VDW was the only/first person to combine the factors of class, pace, and what they do in the final furlong. May I suggest when you meet Ralph you ask him about a book called Horse Sense written by Paul Major? This was written before VDW wrote his first letters, but I have to admit VDW went into more/better detail. As JIB says VDW did come up with a very interesting idea about s/f, and I think this is the key to VDW

Be Lucky

"This can quickly and easily be done by considering the prize money won to date in hundreds of pounds and dividing it by the number of races won. For example a horse has won eight races worth a total of £20,000 (200 hundreds) so to find it's ability rating divide 200 by 8 which equals 25."

I'm assuming this means only count the money at races where the horse won and ignore any place money won. Is this assumption correct?

Unlucky Pipedreamer - why/how did you come to select this horse?

To be fair Johnd and Rob have both posted selections before the off.

TC good link, works fine on my computer. Saves much wheat and chaff sorting.

Hello everyone,
Has this message board been down? I have been unable to access this forum for months. It is very pleasing to find that it is now working again. I must state that of the numerous boards that encapsulate a proportion of VDW material, the mountains of silver in this hat make it one of, if not the best around.
Johnd,
Some very interesting interpretations of form from the post above, I can see that you have put in a decent amount of hard work. May I add to that list of horses Attraction, which I am sure that anyone who considers himself or herself an adept student of VDW would have found? More recently the trainers of Steel Blue and Free Trip saw fit to give their charges a good chance.
Trojan,
It is not correct to state that Pre-race selections have not been freely posted on this forum. Why only recently, before the enforced absence due to the forum being down, I posted two VDW selections some four or five days before the horses actually competed, no surprise that they both won.


PKBOY