When is it classed as "aftertiming" and when is it simply discussing a race in light of the result? In the end everyone's got to live with what they back and telling porkies on a website does nowt for your bank balance.

Truth is not too many winners go by that don't satisfy at least one of VDW's criteria, at least not in higher class races. The trick is waiting for the ones which feel "right". BM WAS one of the most consistent in the forecast, I'd also agree with anyone who pointed out that the "classic" VDW low consistency figure isn't always the greatest indicator in a handicap.

In the end this was a very competetive race and, as mathematician pointed out, it was possible to view a number of the field as "laid out" for it. Definitely a no bet race for me but I repeat congratulations to those who backed BM.

Regards

Carlos.

Anyone going to take on North Light?

Jib
In short No,I wouldn't oppose North Light.Looks to have the full bag o mashings the way i calculate the race.But set to carry 9.3,Not proven above 9.0 and at the price i won't be backing him but neither would i lay him.

Bet Michael Stoute can't sleep nights worrying whether his Derby winner can carry an extra 3lb?

johnd
I wish you luck,I just hope you don't end up in a pile of shit.

Investor: other than not back or not lay, can you recommend any Investment strategies?

LOL

Epi
I will gladly give you an investment strategy for the future,It's called watch and learn it will always stand you in good stead.And judging by your selections you obviously watch but have learnt **** all .

Epi
Here you are.8.20 San Self Respect.Lay it if youuv'e got the bollocks,2.96 B.f

For my money North Light should win tonight but I dont' like backing G1 horses in lower class warm up events. Stiff 10f at Sandown should suit and his entries are interesting, looks like Stoute thinks he may be better at the 1 1/4 mile trip.

Investor, I have to ask what's Epi supposed to learn, the art of mud slinging? Considered argument's what I joined this forum for, if you're serious about promoting VDW's methods surely it might help if your own attitude was more positive / constructive.

Just a thought

Carlos

Carlos
LOL,I suggest you look back over the past 3/4 years and you might realise that i would begrudge posters like epi the steam of my shit.If epi lays that horse he might just make enough money for his next fix.While i'm here and so you understand the situation i have made it perfectly clear that i don't care a damn about this forum.And i would also like to say to you personally that there are probably 2 posters who have any idea of vdw's methods that come on this forum and not very regularly.So if you want to learn or share your knowledge your on a hiding to nothing with most on here.But good luck nevertheless.

Investor,

So you come on here why???

JohnD..I liked the 3lb comment

Investor, nice to see you back chap

I'm backing MUBTAKER tonight, he is a proper G3/G2 horse who will readied for this prize as Group 1's are just beyond him up to press. North Light will probably be looking for Group 1's so it may be a stepping stone.

MUBTAKER has a good first time out record and when he faces fields of 7 or less runners on Good or Good/Firm his record reads

112- 1- 11-

4.9 on betfair is major value imho

it'll do me chaps

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo, May 31, 2005 06:18 PM

Calos
To give an opinion on a horse/race and get stupid comments like the one from Epi.If you don't like the tone of my posts scroll by them.Becaue i will always spit venom at those that mock.

Investor

You are welcome to lay Self Respect ..I presume you think it won't like the going, too early in it's career to make a definate judgement imho..sire gets winners on all goings. The form of the last win is strong, the 3rd horse was well handicapped and still got hammered 8 lengths by the first two. The time suggests the first two are in front of the handicap as well. Only 5lb higher tonight.

Good luck with the lay because this race is not any more difficult. I wouldn't want to be laying it anyway

Investor

How did your posting get timed at 6.02 and mine is before it but timed at 6.03..bizarre

Ectoo
The ground does not come into it for me.Horses with this kind of profile lose on more occasions than they win it's a small field but at 2.96 i feel the horse represents a decent lay opportunity.Freak occurence was laid this afternoon so if he wins there's not a great deal lost.

hope you aren't aftertiming with freak occ to help soften the blow later

how did your post appear before mine??? 6.03

Investor,

Fair play fella, the scroll wheel it is. Be it venom, aftertimed self congratulation or a meaningful pre-race evaluation (unlikely), I don't think I'll be missing too much.

Ectoo,

Like you I like taking on G1 horses going for a cobweb duster. In this case I'd worry that Mubtaker might lack the speed for 10f against a 90%-100% fit NL. His records better at further however Sandown is stiff. He is also entered up himself over the coming month, including in the Eclipse (as is NL), interesting....

Good Luck

Carlos

A listed winner wins in the end, hard to make a case even in retrospect, though I'm sure someone will