Cheers George, good on you.

George J

Thanks for the info on Park Express' win. I take it you don't know the date of this win although logically it would have been before her form book debut in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.
Something you may not be aware of is Park Express recorded a speed figure of 51 in the Pretty Polly Stakes the same as her previous race the Ribblesdale. This is calculated from Sigym in the end of season speed figure list. So no improvement speed-figure-wise.

Garston

Yes, I'm afraid I don't know the date of the win.

Mtoto

The rating is introduced, and suddenly there are 4 winning selections, all top rated on the same day. All gaining the certainty tag, also introduced at the same time. Have to say all this does nothing to convince me about the use of the rating or phrases. It just shows me there is a change of practice and some carefully chosen examples being used to show the "worth" of this rating.

Were they also 'carefully chosen examples' when he analysed every viable race on March 7, 1981? I think not, and you'd be hard pressed to choose any other day's racing where this was possible.

Garston/G/Johns

P/Express won on sat 5/4/86, carried 8 07lb by 4 lts, very easly.

Trypod

Trypod

Thanks. According to the Life form section, that win would have been Park Express's first run of the 1986 season and she then ran again, finishing 3rd, before the Irish 1000 Guineas. If you happen to have any details of that run, I'd be interested to know the race class and how far she was beaten, please.

George,



These are the only details I have for that race.



19-04-86 Phoenix Pk....Group 3.....£15,425....7 furs....heavy....evens fav

3rd /10 no speed figure



Be Lucky

Mtoto

Thanks. Helps make sense of her subsequent performances.

Were they also 'carefully chosen examples' when he analysed every viable race on March 7, 1981? I think not, and you'd be hard pressed to choose any other day's racing where this was possible.

JohnD,

I think ALL the races that had any detail shown where very carefully chosen. All of them need to be read very carefully, and then studied equally carefully. There are different lessons to be learnt from everyone of them, this tells me they are not selected randomly.

Be Lucky

quote:

By VDW;
Once you find it, you wonder how on earth you could miss it.

quote:

By Mtoto
I think ALL the races that had any detail shown where very carefully chosen. All of them need to be read very carefully, and then studied equally carefully. There are different lessons to be learnt from everyone of them, this tells me they are not selected randomly.

Ho hum!

JohnD,

The reply seems to be suggesting there is a contradiction between the two quotes. Perhaps you would like to enlighten me as to where it is?

Mtoto

VDW says it's simple.
You suggest it's endlessly complicated and needs studying in the minutest detail.

And you have the nerve to call me stupid?

Johnd

Just to check, am I right in thinking the "once you find it ..." quote comes from Van der Wheil's article of 13 April 1985 in "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune", please?

HI EVERYBODY

The (ONCE YOU FIND IT) quote, is this suposed to be criptic. Does the word (ONCE) mean (WHEN YOU FIND IT) or does it mean (ON THE ONE OCCASION when you find it)

Look forward to your opinion's

Paul im sure it means that once you find `IT` you will be sorted as far as finding winners the vdw way is concerned and will be enjoying quite a high strike rate at all types of odds.Do you know anyone that comes remotely close proofed pre- race?.

Hi folks
if its that simple why are tony peach and the browzers chap still flogging the books
they should be well off
best of luck
jim

WALTER
I have seen on 2 occasions, a list of 3 horse's from 6 or 7 races on the day given before racing . From memory i think one list was from a guy called bubbles ( also known as pro and investor) and i think this was on the tony peach web site and a guy called formbook on Fulham's web site . The horses that were listed i think were all consistent from the betting , but has far as i no they never repeated the exercise , but anybody can hit a 70% + strike rate in a day or a week, even i have put 3 horses up on Fulham's site for various races but i can not susstain a very long wining run. The longest i have achieved is approx 3 months but that was just betting in maiden hurdle and chases.

I think also from memory im sure that sombody confirmed that Mtoto had a very high srike rate i think around 70% and that Mtoto generally only puts' 1 horse forward and not 3. All though i have only ever seen a few of Mtoto horses put forward i have no reason to disbelieve as what Mtoto write's comes across as being genuine .

May be Mtoto can put you right on his strike rate.

Page 19 TUWOF

"READ WHAT WAS THERE... It is there for you to see and it was not covered up... Once you find it..."

VDW is referring to the SIAO article.

Surely this article is not so long and complex that the point could be missed. So what points are discussed?

Temerament.
Odds.
Class.
Ratings.
Form.
Form figures.
Consistency.
Narrowing the field.
The prize.
Ability rating.
Race selection.
Conflict (in figures).
False favourites.

As far as I'm concerned, these points are all explained. So are there any statements that seem to carry meaning?

Page 43: "To confirm what the figures say, it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most importantly, how they performed in the later stages of each race".

Page 44: "...and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it, Silver Buck, Another captain etc.

Can anyone see anything else in the article that could contain "it"?

Note: A second numerical platform is set out on page 10 of "Betting the VDW way" under the title "The myth of the missing link". Call me old fashioned, but there might be a clue in the title. This article seems to focus on class.

The article concludes "CLASS and CONSISTENT FORM are vital factors and this often confounds those who rely upon handicap or ratings alone.

BUT THE GREATEST ASSET OF ALL IS TO BE MASTER OF YOURSELF!"

Good hunting!

quote:

Originally posted by George Johns:
Johnd

Just to check, am I right in thinking the "once you find it ..." quote comes from Van der Wheil's article of 13 April 1985 in "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune", please?

Indeed it does GJ.

Paul

Very little of what VDW wrote is cryptic.
Just plain straight forward common sense; any hidden meanings being the necessary invention of those who deem themselves intellectual. Hence the years of study and the endless purchase of ancient form books.

The "class in which they ran", (which can also be confirmed by "what it had behind it"), would be my odds-on favour-it.