Member
|
Walter
Having read through Guest's posts and seen his selections, he clearly has a good idea of how Van der Wheil worked but not, I think, of how Van der Wheil selected those class/form horses to back and those to leave.
His (Guest's) strike rate seems to be in the 30%s which is well below the 80%+ Van der Wheil said was possible. I accept Johnd's point about sacrificing strike rate for more bets and greater overall profits, but unless one is only interested in longer priced horses (which Guest clearly wasn't when he was posting) one can't drop the strike rate too far.
|
| |
|
Jolly Swagman
Member
|
Galeota was Gummy's horse of the day, and if you look on his website, you will see that he put up a very nice analysis of the selection.  tc |
| |
|
Member
|
talking of ratings earlier were does PROFITS FROM WEIGHTS RIIGHT COME IN looks as if its part of vdw set but not spoken of? and if used without weight a good way to follow class movment
This message has been edited. Last edited by: les henderson,
September 10, 2008 04:48 PM
|
| |
|
Member
|
ye aw hyped up fur the game wattie
|
| |
|
Member
|
Walter
Yes, they are proving a useful crosscheck on whether a strong looking Van der Wheil selection is as strong as it looks.
Given that they seem to work quite well and I've just found out that Superform ceased trading a couple of months ago, I'm not sure there is much mileage in exploring whether one of Van der Wheil's was based on them. Even if it was, they won't be available for current races, which is what really matters.
|
| |
|
Member
|
EC, well-picked! Galeota 1st. Walt, well done with your ratings! Slugger was a good price. Meanwhile, the SRs were all to bollix (again). |
| |
|
Member
|
george remember mr spiers used speed plus when he got his yankee up in the letter to vdw i,ve been looking at speed plus in the raceform you could have a wee look at them
|
| |
|
Member
|
look to be some great racing coming up on saturday hope the weather does,nt waste it
|
| |
|
Member
|
aye Galotea..didn't bet it..but am amazed that the fav benbaum ran and was still the fav...was never going to run to his best on this going..would have layed all day on that. Andy Many thanks for your kind offer...but I have many of the VDW articles. I have said before..I have not a problem with the basics..it's generalised "mentions" that I don't think much to. In fact...if you remove all the crazy dumbass's surrounding it I think people can discuss it quite nicely this thread is very pleasant..obviously we have one sad posting as is expected from such as JohnD...who has constantly misused this forum over a number of years...given nothing...except abuse...and taken owt on offer...a human parasite imo. He does hold the tipping record on here...1/30 I believe..showing a loss of 25points LSP...ouch. but as a few of you are his mate  ..I'll say no more...but it is interesting that his sole post since "leaving"..is full of the normal hatred and bile I've had to endure from the bullying twat since day one on here. it's a shame that he has so little to offer...bar laying tips |
| |
|
Member
|
Les quote: george remember mr spiers used speed plus when he got his yankee up in the letter to vdw i,ve been looking at speed plus in the raceform you could have a wee look at them
I've seen the letter by Mr Spiers that is reprinted as item 37 of "The Golden Years" and Van der Wheil's letter to Mr Spiers reprinted in "VDW The Silver Lining", but I don't think I've seen the letter to which you refer. Can you please tell me where it is? |
| |
|
Member
|
sorry george wrong way round but i still think his winners that day were all speed plus
|
| |
|
Member
|
Paul
The reason speed figures are not measured in mph is because the difference between the figures is too small. Ratings do not have decimal points in them so a speed of say 36.36mph would be expressed as 36mph. Therefore you could have a field of say 8 runners where they all had a best speed rating of 36mph, which is no help to anyone. The same field using speed figures in pounds weight could show a difference of 10lb which is just over 3 lengths. Look at the illustration below:
Thu Sep 4, Sali 4,50 5f
______________________Topspeed
Horse__________Wght___best_adj__speed mph
Bold Argument____9-2____79__89___38
Matterofact______9-2____77__87___37
Night Prospector_8-13__101__116__38
Blessed Place____8-13___75___90__37
Joss Stick_______9-3____65__76___37
Azygous _________8-13___88__103__39
The speed is the average speed of the horse calculated from the winning time of the race and distance beaten in the race where it achieved its best TS figure. The figures are rounded up or down to the nearest whole figure. As you can see there is only 2 mph difference between the fastest and slowest. Matterofact and Joss Stick have run the same best speed yet Matterofact at the weights is 11lb superior which is about 3 or 4 lengths. The actual speed calculated is Joss Stick 37.49 mph and Matterofact 36.69 mph. Azygous has the fastest speed because his best TS figure was achieved at Epsom over 5f. This is the fastest sprint course in the country if not the world.
If Horse A runs a mile at 36mph and Horse B at 35mph, Horse B will be beaten about 14 lengths which is near enough 40lbs.
|
| |
|
Member
|
Theo! Theo! Theo! |
| |
|
Member
|
WALTER
Well done again, did you win another 1K
|
| |
|
Member
|
I make DIJEERR a 10 star VDW [my way of using it] bet tomorrow in the 3.30 at Sandown.
|
| |
|
Member
|
quote: Originally posted by garstonf:
Paul
The reason speed figures are not measured in mph is because the difference between the figures is too small. Ratings do not have decimal points in them so a speed of say 36.36mph would be expressed as 36mph. Therefore you could have a field of say 8 runners where they all had a best speed rating of 36mph, which is no help to anyone. The same field using speed figures in pounds weight could show a difference of 10lb which is just over 3 lengths. Look at the illustration below:
Thu Sep 4, Sali 4,50 5f
______________________Topspeed
Horse__________Wght___best_adj__speed mph
Bold Argument____9-2____79__89___38
Matterofact______9-2____77__87___37
Night Prospector_8-13__101__116__38
Blessed Place____8-13___75___90__37
Joss Stick_______9-3____65__76___37
Azygous _________8-13___88__103__39
The speed is the average speed of the horse calculated from the winning time of the race and distance beaten in the race where it achieved its best TS figure. The figures are rounded up or down to the nearest whole figure. As you can see there is only 2 mph difference between the fastest and slowest. Matterofact and Joss Stick have run the same best speed yet Matterofact at the weights is 11lb superior which is about 3 or 4 lengths. The actual speed calculated is Joss Stick 37.49 mph and Matterofact 36.69 mph. Azygous has the fastest speed because his best TS figure was achieved at Epsom over 5f. This is the fastest sprint course in the country if not the world.
If Horse A runs a mile at 36mph and Horse B at 35mph, Horse B will be beaten about 14 lengths which is near enough 40lbs.
GARSTONF Thank you for your reply. The race you refer to, i note the winner Bold Argument as 3rd best topspeed, when messed about with and adjusted by top speed is 4th best, using mph joint 2nd best. Im not saying the horse with highest mph or highest s/f is always going to win, but i think a few more eyebrows would be raised if horses who were noted to be 1 or 2 mph quicker than the rest of the field they was racing and then geting beaten by considerably slower animals.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: paul,
September 10, 2008 10:48 PM
|
| |
|
Member
|
please walter remember who you are ken  |
| |
|
Member
|
Good luck with Dijeerr if your betting it EC,Its a bit short for me,Floristry fc 14/1 could be a good EW bet
|
| |
|
Member
|
Your going well wi the betting Wattie |
| |
|
Member
|
ectoo looks good top speed plus and split secound but not improved speed figures going against
|
| |
|
© Gummy Racing 2008.
