Hi Everyone,
Although it is unlikely that there will be any jumps racing tomorrow I have had a look at the national trial at Uttoxeter to sort out the form horses to further test my understanding of this important aspect of VDW Methodology.
I have four form horses being Mini Sensation,Bobby Grant Ardent Scout and Frosty Canyon. Historg was border line but I left him out.
This makes the top two Mini Sensation and Bobby Grant. Mini has strong claims and I certainly would not oppose him but the extra weight ( a stone extra compared to LTO) and the fact that he never runs two races the same put me off.
So no bet again and one can now begin to understand the part temperament plays.
Cheers

Graham

Consistency is a very tricky subject.

ASk yourself is it the horse OR the trainer? I have lost count of the number of trainers who won't let their horses win twice on the trot. Some come under such scrutiny as there are not many options left.

VDW ignored many horses with chances, in favour of consistency, its just one way of the trainer telling you that they are really out to win.

Epiglotis

We both know that I can't write a sentence that you don't pour over in the hope of finding some inconsistency or aspect with which you can take issue. But we also both know that with me your usual dilettante approach doesn't work, because my posts are grounded in careful study of, and reflection on, the source material.

I know how painful you find this, and I don't want to add to your difficulties, so I won't initiate any more posts addressed to you. But that doesn't mean I won't respond to any you initiate, whether addressed to me or not. Take care.

Thanks for the reply. I'm pleased to see that you've graduated to making assumptions and having the confidence to voice an opinion based on assumption. Keep plugging away and hopefully one day you'll wake up fully.

Epiglotis

It is interesting to see that it took you precisely four minutes to confirm my main point which, like my comments on VDW's approach, was based on the by now considerable [clinical] evidence available.

Have a nice day.

I will and hope you do too.

JIB

I doubt you are looking for a serious answer, but neverthless I'll give you one. The answer is yes, within limits.

Don't under-estimate the amount of material available in postings: Epiglotis, for example, has made over 1,300.

By way of illustration, and to move the focus away from Epiglotis, consider the various postings about Investor after he briefly left the board and reportedly made critical comments on another forum about fellow (but, as I understand it, un-named) members of this one. Surely one doesn't need to be psycho-analytically orientated to be clear about the psychopathic character of one or two of the posters, shown by the violent and sustained nature of their pursuit of Investor.

And of course it is not just marked psycho-pathology one can identify from posts. Elliott Jaques, who is arguably THE expert in understanding and assessing human capability, regards engrossed argument (in text, or oral, transcribed, form) as the best material from which to assess capability. (The approach is described in, among other books, Jaques and Cason's "Human Capability", 1994, still, I'm sure, in print.) As a member of Jaques' research institute at Brunel for years, it is quite easy for me to make a confident assessment of Epiglotis's level of capability from the exchanges we've had.

I remember last week Statajack put up 3 horses that came through the process,And were winners in the race.Today i think MINI SENSATION was one of them that if you follow the process through will show up as a good bet,But has you quite rightly say with the weight being a factor against,This is one of them occasions when Temperement comes to the fore.

When confidence drifts into arrogance the overlap is filled by ignorance. Being well read is a poor substitute for the ability to think. When I mentioned Barney's taste for the passive side of slavery I was alluding to excessive respect for perceived authority. Do you believe what you see on television?

I remember the last time TARXIEN ran,You mentioned it shouldn't be backed.I shared your view on that day today was a different race and different circumstances.And he was certainly the winner in the race the way i see it,And a good bet ta boot.Some might say his last race was a downturn in form,I don't share that view i think it was a prep race to induce a bit more stamina ready for today.

Investor,
just zit youzelf down in a comfotible vay on zer couch unt auntie Fulham vil zort all your problems out.
Your dreams vil all come true if you believe,now repeat zlowly efferyone,
VDW,VDW,VDW iz zer anzwer.

JIB

I would ask you to acknowledge that I have not made any comment about Epiglotis and drugs. If you check you will find that was another poster.

For the rest, you asked a question, and I gave you a professional answer. Perhaps it would have been better if I hadn't, but then you would probably have complained that I was being impolite by ignoring you.

I suggest that we'd all be better off if we confined ourselves to racing matters. In the end we had a fullish and rather high quality afternoon's programme, and virtually no discussion of it, pre or post racing, which is a pity.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Fulham, surely the key fact about Rifle Brigade is that it won an 8F race as a two year old. Not the minimum 5F or even 6F but 8F. RB had shown it was capable of a feat of stamina at 2.

VDW highlighted this factor in his discussions of To-Agori-Mou and speed figures when he pointed out TAM had recorded a SF of 81 over 7F while Mattaboy had recorded the same SF over 6F.

Does this match with your understanding of the race?

All the best
hedgehog

The most unfortunate thing is,Jib isn't interested in vdw and never will be.What he is trying to do is dirupt the thread,I sincerely hope that yourself and others who have gone a long way towards understanding the methods,Don't let the type of posts that have been put up of late,Stop you from posting.That would be a sad day,Unfortunately that's what i feel there trying to do.DON'T let it happen.

Hedgehog

For me, the key fact about Rifle Brigade was that he was the only form horse (and therefore the c/f) in the race. But it very likely that VDW would have been less interested had RB's later 2yo runs all have been over 5f or 6f.

My purpose in mentioning the example in response to posts from Mike and Epiglotis was to make the point that there was nothing merely "mechanical" about VDW's approach. Jock Bingham provides a good contrast. In his "Be A Winner", Bingham wrote "I do not rate any horse that has not won over the distance". VDW thought more deeply about matters and, in the right circumstances, was prepared to back a horse which had never run over the distance, let alone won over it.


Investor

What determines the worth of this thread is the quality of contribution by members interested in furthering their understanding of VDW's work. Scepticism from others is to be expected and, like you, I would be disappointed if the genuinely interested let it (or the sometimes less-than-civil manner in which it is expressed) put them off. It certainly won't deter me from posting when I think I have something to contribute.

[This message was edited by Fulham on February 01, 2003 at 09:57 PM.]

Will all those who feel the compulsion to hit another door,please go and sit under the stairs and cool down for a moment.

Q

Or, more positively, try another thread that better reflects their interests/temperaments?

Whose side are you on.

"Posters such as yourself JIB ePIGLOTIS THREELEGS JIMMY infact anybody can come on here and say what they want

Think carefully investor, you are taking my name in vain. Do you really want me to get involved with this?

Wait