Viewing the posts regarding the Roseberry objectively, (or trying to, anyway) it appears to me that people seem to be trying to find/make a case for the winner of the race instead of whether there was a winner in the race. But I would say that though wouldnt I? However, does anyone else agree?
regards,

Statajack

Does it not occur to you that your post is a contradiction in terms? You are viewing the posts from your perspective which is (like everyone else's) intrinsically subjective.

Statajack
I remember Fulham once saying to me that it's easy to find the winner after the race (hindsight), But i think there is now a better understanding of the methods,Which is quite evident in recent posts by various stalwarts of this thread,And it's good to see these posts and understand them from a vdw perspective.

While not trying to be cynical,had the Roseberry been run yesterday,and Parasol's race been run on Saturday,how would Adiemus have been viewed,in terms of the Roseberry then.

If Goblet of Fire,had won the Roseberry (hypothetical I know),would he have been touted as a good thing post race?

VDW did say only 85/90 % won,didn't he.

I am not trying to be negative here,but just trying to learn more.

Barney
Pecadillo's or not when a horses form is quite evident and they go off at prices like 8/1 or in the case of spirit leader 14/1 and 7/1 were laughing all the way to the bank.

Fulham,
Yes, point taken and I alluded to that in my post, but after reading all the posts it seemed to me that people were trying to build cases for various horses whereas had there been a winner in the race, its chance (and its alone) would have been obvious to all.
regards,

Investor,
Agreed, but VDW can only lead us to good betting opportunities. It cant find the winner in every big race. Some races are a bit too hard to tackle with any certainty.
regards,

Statajack

You are, of course, fully entitled to use what aspects of VDW you find most useful, but some of us are not satisfied to wait for those (usually short priced) winners at are "obvious to all". As VDW amply demonstrated, he often found longer priced winners which were far from self-evident, and the Rosebery offered a useful opportunity to explore a race where such a winner might (and I emphasise might) have been found.

It seems to me that, leaving Muhareb to one side, those who have commented on the race on the thread, and to me privately, believe that this apparently tricky and competitive handicap could be reduced to three probables, the case against one of which, on capability grounds, was in part posted by Raffingora before the off. Now that seems to me to be a useful exercise, and based on the facts in the Form Book. It could then be said to have been franked by two of the three horses taking first and second place.


Pipedreamer

In my view the issue with Adiemus was essentially how one should evaluate his run in the Lincoln. I'm not clear why Parasol's win yesterday, when the clear c/f dropped in class, would have had any bearing on that matter had that race been before the Rosebery, but would be interested to know why you do.

Had Goblet of Fire won, two facts would remain: (1) there were one/two higher ability-rated form horses in the field and (2) he had never previously demonstrated he could manage the weight. Except as part of a conservative book, backing GoF was going against the odds.

As I understand it VDW's 85-90% is of the 20% worth backing, put another way 17-18% from the races he recommended looking at.

JIB,
Nice to see you restricting your comments to simple personal abuse. Your recent posts on this thread concerning cocks and scat respectively are making people think you have some kind of unhealthy fixation.

Evening all,

Tomorrow`s City and Surbaban H`cap looks another opportunity to discuss the matter of in formness.

For starters the top 8 ability ratings are

183 Kuster
160 Cape Town
151 Dumaran
118 Brilliant Red
110 Lingo
101 F.Warrior
81 D.on the Top
80 Burgundy

Just about to get my teeth into it and the RP website is down.

Determined


The rest are, on my calculations,

Dance on the Top - 81
Parisien Star - 73
Persian King - 64
The Glen - 57
Light Scent - 50
Persian Lass - 47
Danelor - 43
Northern Lodge - 43
Eton - 43

(I also make Brilliant Red a bit higher than you, at 131. But they will all need checking when we pick up our Posts.)

I agree with you that the race may well generate interesting discussion both as to the form horses, and specifically the c/f.


JIB

You may think this thread ridiculous, but there is a not insignificant number of members trying to engage in serious discuss and your posts add nothing. You clearly have an obsession with Statajack, which is your problem, not his. Go play with your coconuts, and cut out the personal abuse.

Fulham / all,

In my opinion the top 2 namely Kuster and Cape Town are very quickly ruled out.

The difficulties then start when one considers Dumaran, a horse I have looked at on several occasions in the recent past due to Guest and, I believe yourself naming him for his Newbury win last backend.

The weight aspect for tomorrow with the very good apprentice taking off the 3 lbs is not in doubt but is the Lincoln 6th considered in form.

I make his Lincoln running when receiving only 6 lbs from Pablo and beating Adiemus, the 1st and 2nd on class/form for that race as an in form run and thus Dumaran is 1st on class/form for tomorrow`s race.

That doesn`t of course make `D` a betting proposition at this stage.

JIB

So that you don't think I'm going behind your back, I have drawn Gummy's attention to your recent posts and invited him to consider whether they are within the proper bounds of thread debate or, as I see them, amount to unacceptable personal abuse.

City & Surbaban,

Sadly due to other pressures I have been unable to put as much time into this race as I`d liked.

I`m already late for work this morning but very quickly,

Form horses with my NOVICE head on are Dumaran, Lingo, Faithful Warrior and Danelor.

Class/form horses are Dumaran and Lingo.

Both proven on the course and the latter has done the distance.

Both prefer easier going which is a concern.

With doubts about the distance for `D` I make Lingo the most probable winner but I will not be having a bet as a full evaluation cannot be done.

NB - I`m very interested in Dubian Gift today.

Bye now,

Determined

You were right about Brilliant Red's AR - I'd missed his last win.

If the Post is right, Northside Lodge's rating is 41. The 43 I posted last night was derived from "Racehorse Record Flat 2003" which misses out the win in June 2002 at Lingfield.

255e

Well what a dogs breakfast this race is, total conflict amongst the horses with proven ability but not at the trip, versus horses with less ability but proven form at the trip.

I am not wasting time on the race as its obviouse there is no bet in it.

MY Three against the field would be Eaton, Northside lodge and Persian lass

Determined,

I find myself in agreement with you about the form horses, interesting as I come at a race from a different angle to you (I think). For me all the consistent horses are out gunned, so it's down to the improvers.

Dumaran, unlike you I'm not worried about the distance. Course should suit. going is the worry for me.

Lingo, has a lot going for it. In fact the only negative is it MAY be overbacked and have little or no value. A slight rise in class, but I think this is a weak race.

Faithful Warrior, improved in a slightly better race than this. Early wins suggest he could handle a step up in distance, don't quite understand why it has taken this long to try. Can handle firm but seems better on good.

Danelor, much the same as FW, (in last race) but this one has been tried over 10f in lower company and failed. Trainer seems to be struggling to find right trip, a BIG negative with a clever trainer like this.

So for once I find myself agreeing with Barney, not a race that appeals. A passing thought, maybe Meehan chose the wrong race for Goblet Of Fire!

Be Lucky

As usual all personal and offensive postings will be removed.
I do keep an eye on all of the forums.