determined
I like them prices 33/1 ,14/1 and 12/1 if only Lol.

Investor,

I can find them every year but winners like that are no good if

a) you back too many losers in between

b) your stakes are all to cock.

I will eventually find the right balance and hopefully make sufficient money to really start reaping the rewards for the hard work.

**** was Parasol a bet for you today ?

Numerical picture wise he looked good but when really studying his form could one be sure he`d turn around the beating he suffered at the hands of IH last backend.

Also, was his form any better than that of Nysaean ?

No bet for me = conflict.

Cheers,

Broadway Score. This could get interesting!

Fulham, if I may. Your last few postings raise some interesting points. Do you now think BS is a form horse, in fact the class/form horse? If you had come to that conclusion before the race would you have backed him? You say the disagreement about the race will add fuel, because of it. I don't worry about people coming to different conclusions about the final decision, to back or not. It's the decisions about whether a horse is in form, that are the worry. I have to agree with the friend that said BS's form wasn't strong enough to warrant a bet, but I can't quite understand how GOF is out of form, or the form isn't good enough. Yesterday, I highlighted the horses that passed the first filter (consistency). When I assess a race, I also check the other main filter (improvement) and that added two horses to the list, Broadway Score, and Adiemus. Adiemus was immediately rejected because I agreed with Raffingora and others about the track, (and other reasons) BS because the form wasn't strong enough. I think this is were the c/form filter comes in, when the field has been narrowed to a short list. I haven't seen all of Desert Hero's form, but would you have backed him on the strength of just his last 3 runs?

Determined.

I think you were right about Greenslades, I don't think he was ever put into the race. Just a nice easy pipe opener, with little or no pressure applied. Clever trainer, who was out of form last year. Definitely one to watch!

Be Lucky

Determined
i must be honest,I thought the racing today was rubbish.I can fully undestand why you considered nysean a threat,i didn't put my hand in my pocket at all today,in the days when vdw started all this Lingfield was quite a poor trackEven today it's quoted G4,On the evidence that was available and taking all other factors into consideration,The only possible option was to dutch parasol/island light.

Going on to broadway score,I think that had Vdw been around today this particular horse may well have fell into Best/next best bet category,It seemed to have a lot in it's favour.

Rosebery,

I totally agree with Mtoto that Goblet Of Fire had to be a form horse yesterday.

His last 2 runs were the best of his career, the sign of an improving horse and look at the horses he beat at Lingfield = Kirovski and Adiemus to name but two.

B.Score = I had as out of form but as Fulham pointed out earlier if taking his Pontefract run in relation to yesterdays opposition then yes it was in hindsight good enough to make him a form horse and having a higher ability rating than GOF the 1st on class/form.

** Adiemus of course has to BE out of form to come to this conclusion **

Now this is where I differ from Mtoto and Fulham`s friend, ie - in my opinion there were clear factors against all those rated higher on ability and I was confident none of them could win yesterday.

Having such a strong view on those that couldn`t win then surely a winning bet was lost, ie - a book on BS and GOF.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.


MTOTO,

Greenslades - that very good judge of many years standing namely Marten Julian ( his website ) has been advised by the trainer that he considers `G` well h`capped.

Without been clever I have been of that opinion for sometime. Also, Julian has been very well informed within that yard for years.

island house,

surely no one can have seriously considered this horse a threat today?


Hes bloody seven, funny he didnt turn up with a zimmer frame and a teasmade.....untill he comes round a bit.

Barney,

Parasol was good thing for you then ?

I was reasonbly confident IH would not have conditions to suit and for that reason Parasol was favoured over him.

Nyseaen was a worry for me hence = no bet.

Barney,

Could I ask your thoughts on the Rosebery, ie -how many form horses did you have in the race ?

Barney
Maybe vdw would have discarded Island house on the basis that he needs a run or 2,But the evidence in the form book suggested that he had to be respected.

Determined,

from the forcast area

Adiemus
Muharreb
Broadway score
Goblet of fire


From a betting point of view all were worthy of support, that is why there are books to be made.

From my point of view it broke down as follows

Adiemus, c/f, an outstanding bet and virtual certainty.

Muhareb, fto, distance wrong.

Broadway score, too much on his plate.

goblet of fire, nothing to suggest a reversal.

My two bets in that race were Adiemus and lay of the maiden Barolo. A very frustrating draw.

If i look back I come to the conclusion that of the four Muhareb and GOF could not possibly win.

Investor,

with those two horses approach the problem how VDW instructed us too.

"I assess all horses from 2yo"

I will do parasol for you,

Came out and won his maiden first time of asking at 4/1 , and was then well placed in listed class next time, was upped and upped throughout the season culminating in a 3 1/4lgth defeat by rock of gibraltar in a group one.

LIghtly raced as 3 yr old coming out in the 2000 guineees where performed as expected, was then dropped to collect at 1/7. given no further runs until a suprise outing in november where defeated when a likely winner.

Mtoto

Determined started the ball rolling re the Rosebery by stating that, for him, Adiemus was the c/f and Goblet of Fire the 2nd c/f. That implies that ten of the 12 highest on ability rating in the field were not form horses. Subsequently, I have suggested that Broadway Score, too, was a form horse and Barney has put up Muhareb.

If we look at the six with the lowest ability ratings, for me a case can only be made for Skylarker and Barolo.

On the above basis, the field of 18 is reduced to six "possibles", as follows:

Adiemus - 161
Muhareb - 79
Broadway Score - 64
Goblet of Fire - 61
Skylarker - 42
Barolo - 0

Adiemus. Had he gone straight to the Rosebery from his penultimate run there would have been no room for doubt: a form horse and c/f. But he didn't, and we have to evaluate his performance in the Lincoln. Should we perhaps "excuse" the race on the ground of over-facing (as VDW did with a race of Gaye Chance's)? If not, how are we to evaluate the performance - clearly a higher class race, but Adiemus was beaten 6l getting 6lb from the winner. On Saturday morning I took a negative view of this run, but I learnt later that someone I respect took a more positive view.

Muhareb. To my mind there is not the slightest doubt that his last run was regressive and thus I did not, and do not, regard him as a form horse.

Broadway Score. There is equally no doubt in my mind that BS was a form horse, and I have alluded in a previous post to the reason I missed him on Saturday morning.

Goblet of Fire. On the face of it, a form horse, but there is a weight issue. On Saturday morning, following Guest's advice to the effect that, in handicaps, VDW was ruthless in assessing in-formness, I took the view that he wasn't a form horse. However, someone whose views I respect reached the opposite conclusion. Nevertheless, I am bound to note that GoF did EXACTLY what my Saturday morning assumption implied - ran well but was run out of it at the death, the weight (in my view) being the reason.

Skylarker. The form can be seen as progressive, but given that (in my view) at least one of the horses with markedly higher ability ratings was a form horse, relatively speaking not a form horse in the context of Saturday's race.

Barolo. An argument can be made that his form, too, was progressive. If that argument is accepted (and that is not an insignificant if) what applies re Skylarker also applies to Barolo.

So, where do I stand today? Basically I'm still far from sure. I can see a case for regarding Adiemus as a form horse, but I'm not wholly convinced by it. Ditto Goblet of Fire, but I'm even less convinced by that.

As regards betting, I take the view (which I have expressed before on this thread) that, where there is a doubt about a horse's in-formness, one should assume he is a form horse.

On that basis, the need would be to evaluate Adiemus and Broadway Score from the perspective of capability.

You and others have raised question marks about Adiemus from this perspective, and a glance at his record certainly suggests he is a better horse on the AW than on turf. On the other hand, I recall from post-Lincoln discussions on the thread that some felt he would be better suited by further than a mile.

BS has won over the distance on turf, and on the g/f encountered on Saturday, and had shown he could manage the weight.

On the judgements I now make as regards in-formness, the logical bet would have been to back Broadway Score, with a stake-saver on Adiemus. But of course it is unreal to make these judgements after the event, as one cannot help but sub-consciously be influenced by knowledge of how the race worked out.

I would not, however, say that Broadway Score was a strong bet, and the comparison is perhaps best made with Spirit Leader in his last two runs. For SL was both a form horse and had "good consistent form". BS was the former, but lacked the latter, and thus I fully understand my friend's position that he could not envisage backing it.

But there is a broader issue here. Guest has said, and VDW's comments support him, that about 70% of races are won by form horses. Against this background, when a seemingly competitive handicap can reasonably readily be reduced to two or three possibles, backing the most likely at the kind of odds that were available hardly seems reckless. After all, a non-discriminating book on the only three with serious claims (Adiemus, Broadway Score and Goblet of Fire) would have paid 2/1 at sps.

Finally, you refer to Desert Hero and I think are saying that, while he had consistent form, it was comparatively in such low class events compared to the Imperial Cup that he was not a credible proposition.

In that 16 runner race, DH was co-12th highest of four on an ability rating of 11, ie there was only one horse in the race with a lower ability rating. BUT he was the only form horse in the field, was comfortable over the distance, had even won on the course, was unlikely to be inconvenienced by good ground and was carrying only 9.08. Yes, he was a very good bet indeed.

Barney
i understand the point your'e trying to make,But let's not forget Parasol went down by 5 lgths to island house.I know that the horse has come on a lot since that beating,I remember reading "the first element of doubt should stop you from betting" thery'll be others.

Fulham
Excellent post,Do you mean 2/1 the book if the shortest priced had won.

Fulham
I don't know if youv'e done much research into best bet/next best bet,I'm not quite sure wether this method was aimed solely at N/h or wether it could be used on the flat,Any idea.

Investor,

you are absolutely right, why only yesterday temperament prevented me from gambling on 4 other horses which I thought should win, I was proved right which was very satisfying as only 2 won.

Fulham,

you are probably right,but have you checked? I am being a bit too soft, I took the view it was the end of a busy season.

Adiemus was four wins, two fast finising sceonds and two running on thirds from eight runs at the trip though, alltold beaten less than fourlengths in defeat.

Adiemus is still a form horse though, even now.

Investor

By a non-discrimating book I mean the sort VDW showed us in "Systematic Betting" where one places variable amounts on each horse, depending on price available, and is indifferent to which member of the book wins, because the return is the same. It was that kind of book that would have paid 2/1 on the Rosebery. By contrast, if one has a view that one horse is more likely than one, two or three others, but that they cannot be discounted, one can stake so as to ensure that if the preferred horse wins, one gets a good return, but makes a little, or at least covers stakes, if one of the others wins.

I have not yet seriously researched the Best Bet/Next Best method - in my present state of uncertainty about always getting the c/f right, that would count as running before I can walk. But from a post of Guest's re Birjand, I would suspect it is an approach applicable to the Flat as well as the NH.


Barney

re Muhareb, I can't off-hand think of an example where VDW "excused" a run because it was at the end of a season and the horse might be thought to have been over-raced.

As to Adiemus, I would respectfully suggest that the kind of comment you've made - it is a form horse even now - is misconceived. The whole point about in-formness is that it is race-specific, and can only be assessed against the class of the race and of the other runners. Were Adiemus to run next in a modest handicap, you might be right. If he was to run in a competitive Group 1 or 2, you'd almost certainly be wrong.

Fulham,

My view makes adiemus and goblet of fire form horses along with perhaps being overcautious with muhareb.Though I still say that at the conditions of saturday's race he is in form.I would not have had him in form at 12f though.

You cannot take away the fact that the horse adiemus is in form.

Dependant on his placement, which then will in my view, show him to be either in or out of form for the race.

To be honest I will stick with my way, which is the catch all, rather than miss glaring form horses.

Since you mention Birjand, the approach is consistent to muhareb.

Barney
I don't think your'e a million miles away with the comparison of Muhareb/Birjand,But i feel that B's form was more consistent.

Investor,

It would indeed be very nice if all form was there on a plate for all to see.

Luckily VDW showed us how to spot these pecadillo's.