hi,in which chase did dark n sharp have conflict was it his first chase where he was`nt fluent & indeed fell or his second & first completed chase where he was a beaten fav?.

Hi IMP,

AND THAT AS WELL

i should have backed it ah well

good morning mate..not long got back,got some catching up to do,are you doing this for a living yet..cheers investor

got the money, got the bank, got a new job, not got the experience yet maybee next year!!

only thing is last job i could read paper for 4 hours everyday, new one i can only snatch an hour before i go, makes me concentrate on the right races though!!

good luck

morning novices..i personally feel that for us just starting out,we must reform our ways and not go against the odds and then that elusive pot of gold,will be within our grasp..keep smiling

good morning..i totally agree with your comments,regarding CLASSIFIED another good example of taking the odds,funny thing them odds are..cheers investor

morning all..i understand the temperemant issue,but don,t you sometimes feel you are wasting good betting opportunities,i mean you could have had a field day at aintree with multiples..cheers investor

Investor,
You are only wasting good betting opportunities if you bet in fivers or tenners. Otherwise you want to make sure everything is right before going in.
Multiple bets only look nice in hindsight. Where would a double on Westender and Classified have got you? Or maybe Young Joker and castle gandalfo? Need I say more?

good afternoon..i don,t think i explained myself properly,i mean if you evaluate a race and no clear selection emerges dutch em that,s what i was trying to get at or make a book as the great man said..cheers investor

Investor,

As VDW stated there are many races, almost on a daily basis, where a book can be made and in doing so you can cover almost all eventualities. However, it isn’t as easy in reality. Personally, I don’t back at the odds that VDW felt were acceptable. I will now and then invest in order to profit the equivalent of odds-on, but of course the likely result has to reflect this.

On the whole I prefer backing single horses to win, but will make a book, when the odds are worthwhile.

good afternoon..just curious what do you consider a satisfactory margin,when making a book and do you also use the s.plan as per the literature..cheers investor

Investor,

You have to be extremely cautious when backing odds-on chances whichever way you go about it. To strike below even money when backing more than one horse in a race there has to be virtually no opposition left to spoil things. Likewise, when backing odds-on about a single selection EVERY last factor has to line up before the money goes down. As to what I deem to be a satisfactory margin, it all depends on the strength and depth of the opposition. A cut off point for me though is 50% ROI.

I don’t use the staking plan that was given by VDW, but instead one that was given to me years ago. It’s nothing special but it is basically geared around achieving a set amount of points (ten) per sequence of bets, at which point the sequence starts again. The length of a sequence depends on how successful you are at a given time. I know from month to month, broadly speaking of course, what to expect which is a good aid. During the summer I can complete many sequences during a month, unlike October and January where they take a lot longer, purely down to the number of bets.

thanks for your reply,i suppose the staking plan is for your eyes only? iv,e been using 10% rolling,but i,m thinking of trying fibonacci..cheers investor

Investor,

Like I say, the method of staking that I use is nothing special, and it must be recognised that any staking plan is only as successful as the method used to make the selections. I must add though that unlike many forums of punters this one sets itself apart in that I believe the majority on here do actually recognise this major fact.

It is not for my eyes-only as the staking plan is I’m sure the most dispensable part of anyone’s armoury in betting. What it does is enhance profits in comparison to level stakes, and there are many ways to do this, but again, only with a consistent method of selecting enough winners at a price that is high enough. I’ll set it out on here in due course.

i,ll look forward to seeing your s.plan..cheers mate investor

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

JIB - My view on Systematic Betting is similar to Bensams. I think VDW was using speed figures long before he published a Winner in a Race. I think his methods would have been refined over time rather than drastically altered.

I think that what is going on with a Winner in a Race is not so much VDW altering his approach rather than him presenting the public with a simpler method.

In VDW spells it out, VDW presented a method that was 85% - 90% successful in both types of racing but his readership found it difficult to grasp, as do I.

In Systematic Betting VDW is recognising this fact by providing another method based on speed figures and class. Information on both of which were , I believe, readily available at the time to his readership.

VDW was recognising that his readership were just not up to his speed and providing a tool which could be used at the level of skill the vast majority of his readership possessed. He was tailoring his material to the level of competence of his audience. Were his audience showed a weakness in form reading he provided another means, speed figures, to bolster that weakness.

The act of a true master of his trade and a skillful teacher.

VDW in Systematic Betting mentions other methods which were not included in the book. I believe the chapters on Form Class Evaluation and Speed Figures were there not only to teach the basis for Winner in a Race but also to raise the level of form awareness of his audience to a point were he would have been able to present his other methods in a concise form. The chapters were there to teach us how to read form, the bedrock on which his methods stood.

Anyway thats my view.

All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog,

You are, I believe correct with regards to the Class Form evaluation that VDW gave in example of Roushayd.

It should be apparent that VDW gave this example not just to point out how an improving speed figure when raised in class is a good indication of improving form but also to give us an example how he evaluated class and form.

In it he makes comment about many horses and the races in which they ran. He makes comment about pace, how horses performed from the distance and much more. He makes comment of the horses that were deemed to be the most likely winners, but left un-backed. Why?

Shimshek ran in a slow race AND THE HORSE DID NOTHING FROM THE DISTANCE …….. Falique was second to Billet last time but had been dropped in class a long way and had not got enough from the distance……….Vouchsafe who was behind Roushayd in the Northern Dancer, where he showed improvement, and was dropped in class last time out to collect. Every horse in practice gets the same attention.

There is so much in the Class/Form evaluation that if people cared to look it would keep them busy for a good time, and as VDW stated later in ‘the final story’ to Tony Peach “it would seem the object of the exercise was lost, which is a pity and a waste of my efforts – because had it been understood it would have carried your readers a long way.

I think that say’s it all.

I've tried to email you regarding the staking method, but it has been returned?