After a moribund weeks' racing, in which my understanding of the method produced only three selections ( Two didn't run, yesterday, and the other won, Thursday, at a modest price,) I am further convinced that I am on the right track.
As each week goes by, more comes to light to re-inforce my initial thinking on this approach, and I am now confident enough, ( or brash enough, depends how you view it), to feel that 80%+ winners is well within my grasp, and in the not too distant future. Not only do I now know how the method operates ( IMO ), but more importantly, WHY it works! The only problem I can foresee would be in my application of the method, ( Wise words those; "No element of gamble should be allowed to creep in"), and I will be taking Fulhams advice on this, and treading very softly for the time being.
I am sure this post will attract its share of cynicism,I have no ego to massage, so I can live with that; As it stands members will make their own choice, and I wish them well, whatever.
I have recently restricted my postings in the belief that I had given away too much, subsequent postings seem to show that I was being unnecessarily cautious. For those that think I may have something, (From a purely selfish point of view, the fewer, the better), I would humbly suggest that they re-read my recent postings, and try to understand exactly where I am coming from!
Must go now, as the boss is calling.

Luck to all

Thanks for the reply,I found the passage you refer to.
I'm wondering is there anywhere I can get the numerical picture,for Stray Shot and Zamandra, eg consistency,betting forecast,previous runs etc,the RP website doesn't go back far enough,as I would like to study these examples,
Hope somebody can help,

Pipedreamer

You've two main options: either to get hold of the relevant Form Books (Janet Carter, 01638 717619; Greg Way, 01638 507217; or John Pickering, 01439 770931) are your best bets, or check them out from the Sporting Life, back copies of which, on microfilm, are kept in the British Library's Newspaper Library, at Colindale, North London.

JohnD - As I said in my reply to you a few days ago, I do consider myself to be open minded and as I have also said before, I don't claim to have all the answers.

From your recent posts it seems you are convinced that you have spotted what may or may not be the missing link. Now I cannot possibly tell from your posts if your new approach is in any way the same as the one I discovered. You have,however, said you don't think research is the answer so I can only assume it is not the same factors I came to use.

Obviously, like myself, you do not want to broadcast your further thinking in public. So it seems our debate or discussion can go little further on the board, but perhaps it could in private via email. I have already posted my email address on the board for anyone to contact me and I have always answered as best I can without giving vital factors clean away. Let me know either way via email or the board.

Hopefully nobody piled into Al Capone today. The other factors were bang on with that one.

Hello Barney,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Thanks for the response. To be honest I didn't look closely enough at AS last race.

All the best
hedgehog

Thanks Fulham,will do.

Did anybody consider Ballycassidy a good thing today,Ludlow 3.20?

OOF

Pipedreamer

On reflection, I think it can be misleading to work solely from the Sporting Life form sections - there are omissions such as the error re Bonny Gold that Guest has pointed out.

Where the Sporting Life material is a helpful addition to the Form Books is (a) it carries the betting forecasts and (b) (provided there are no errors) it offers a much quicker way of deriving ability ratings (with NH horses, in particular, a horse's career will sometimes cover six or more years of the Form Book).

Guest,

One thing I have been wondering about is why does VDW's formula start with the words consistent form? When the class/form horse worked your way can be in form based on 1 run. I may have that wrong, can a horse be the c/form horse by being in form only on it's last run? That is the impression I have by looking at some of your c/form horses.

I don't think you are mad for backing Keen Leader. I just don't understand the thinking of backing any novice at odds on. That holds true of any bet at odds on, single, dutched or otherwise. I agree a lot of nonsense is talked on the Racing Channels, but isn't that true of most walks of life? Full of instant experts only believing what falls in to line with their beliefs. One of these being weight makes a big difference to the result of a race, no matter how many times they watch the weight turn around not work. A beats B, there is a weight turn around, B beats A the weight is responsible. How many times could it have been down to tactics, course, fitness, and half a dozen other factors? No, it's down to the weight, nothing to do with pace and class. Can anyone explain why most handicaps are won by horses at the top of the weights?

Fulham,
A few years ago the best races were worth the most money, that is often not true now. I can't see how something as important, and complicated as class can be judged on 1 figure based on an outdated fact. I think to get an even half accurate idea of class you need at least 2 reference points. If they can be from independent sources, so much the better. I can't find the quote but it goes something like this The class of the horse, and the class of the race are not the same thing. I may be missing something, but isn't that a strange thing to say? If you are taking the class of the race as the class of the horse.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

You say "A few years ago the best races were worth the most money, that is often not true now". I think your statement would have been more accurate had you substituted "sometimes" for "often". Whether the "sometimes" is more frequent these days is an empirical matter, and in the absence of data it is not something about which I have any real feel.

I would emphasise again that the VDW ability rating is a point of departure. It has a technical function, but it does not of itself lead to a decision either as to whether there is a probable winner in a race, or whether a bet should be made. The application of other aspects of VDW's approach will confirm whether the ability rating significantly over- or under-states the true situation.

have you done the 225 at sedgefield?

Barney,

I haven't gone in depth with any races as yet, but I'll post any thoughts I have when I've looked.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

I've had a look at the 2.25 Sedgefield but think I've got it wrong.

2.25 Sedgefield Nov Ch 2M 5F class 83
Consistent
Jungle Jinks(6), Sallys Twins(6), Extra Cache(9), Sea Drifting(9), Mr Cospector(10)

C/F list
Mr Cospector(88), Jungle Jinks(35), Sea Drifting(24)

Mr Cospector - Distance, course and going should be okay. Is in form. Not a first time out winner and its last run it ran out early so didn't get a run really. Also seems to need more of a challenge its only win being at Haydock in the heavy. No but must be respected.

Jungle Jinks - Not really a race this horse should win. At touch out of its league. Going should be okay but it seems to want further. In form. No.

Sea Drifting - Distance, course and going okay. In form. Has been running in much better class than others. Again didn't really get a run LTO. Has won FTO though. Yes.

Selection - Sea Drifting. I see Mr Cospector as the only real danger but at a forecast 7-2 the odds take care of that.

What do you think?
All the best
hedgehog

is there a non runner in "lord jack"?

I agree that Sea Drifting is the best in the race but I dont rate it a bet.

Barney,

Sally Twins is a non runner. There's nothing of any interest in there for me though.

re Sea Drifting

I don't think that VDW would have selected a horse that fell on it's chasing debut.

Nothing much of any great note today. Took me about 5 minutes to decide not to bother.

thankfully the standard of racing improves from tomorrow with the Hennessy Meeting on Friday and Saturday giving us plenty of races to investigate.

Rob

Hello Barney,

I don't consider LJ to be in form. However considering that I had 3 2nd's yesterday and each time was stuffed by a horse I considered out of form you can't go by what I say!

All the best
hedgehog

i think

lay lord jack

Jungle jinks to win with a small stake on sea drifting to cover bet

Mtoto - Two horses VDW gave as clear class/form horses, his way, were Castle Warden and Bonny Gold (forget about the numerical error with this one for now, let's just take it as it appeared in VDWs paper).

Neither horse was one of the consistent horses and add to this that Burrough Hill Lad in the 85 KG Chase was a consistent horse, but not a form horse and it should be clear to anyone that consistency is not form and vice versa.

Both Castle Warden and Bonny Gold showed an improvement in form on their last runs after both running twice that season. The form was relative to the races being run on Boxing Day though. You cannot, in the main, take a horses last 3 runs and say it is a form horse or not without knowing the class of race it is about to compete in.

Anyone really giving a lot of thought to the above should at least be able to see the angle VDW was coming at regarding form and class. He also said that nothing works in isolation. I would add, as I so often have, it is all relative all of the time.

This is why when questions are asked about two hypothetical horses form, it is impossible to give a useful answer without knowing all of the facts concerning a race being run.

As to weight, in my view it does affect the outcome given other considerations. Studies that just list horses re opposing on different weight terms prove nothing in isolation. Everything is connected in form in some way or another.

A classic case is when a horse wins a decent class handicap with a low weight, but then fails to land lesser class handicaps with bigger weights. Or fails to land better races with more weight. It has to be related to the class of race and the class/form of those opposing.