Has anyone got any thoughts on the two big h/c's today in relation to the chances of DISTINCTION 2.45 and ROYAL STORM in the 3.55 ?
The 3.55 looks especially interesting and the f/c fav Master Robbie does have a very good chance after last weeks wide margin win but at the prices (and the draw)Royal Storm has to be the bet.

NESSIE

If you are checking the 2.45 be careful with your 100% because its last three have been over hurdles.If we are thinking along the same lines you will most likely have Distinction around 90%.Coming up with this one my way I have it around 8lb's well in.

It goes without saying that the best horse is suited by the conditions, that is primarily what makes it the best horse.

Epiglotis

That begs one of the fundamental questions. In today's 2.45 at Goodwood, for example, Miss Fara has by far the highest ability rating (266 compared with the 2nd highest of 201), and is undoubtedly a form horse from a VDW perspective and thus the class/form horse. But those facts, in themselves, don't mean that she will win.

fulham,

in view of the negatives with miss fara and VDW's views on Shimshek will you go any further with race?

Miss Fara needs further

Max, is the PP thread closed de facto?

Barney

Don't forget that Shimshek came second. When I last looked, 32.0 was available on Betfair for Miss Fara, though whether one could get 8.0 for the place I didn't check.


Max

You are probably right, in the sense that 2m or 2m+ would suit better. But at today's ostensible class, Miss Fara has run well enough over shorter within the recent past to suggest that, should she lose today, distance alone won't be the explanation.

2.45 Good RIYADH This comes out at 3 1/4 times the prize money for todays race,has won 3/8 GF 1/5 G,Train+ jock ?
Yesterday as Max said Banjo Bay was 100% or 6 times the prize money,
A race last week on which Landing Light won it was 8 times the prize money on offer,
How often does the above happen,Just taking the average of the last 3 runs and compairing it to todays race,
Good luck,Rab

max,

had a look at the other handicap and would not be prepared to back against ile michel

RAB
You are right about RIYADH but it is not in form is it?
Roughly looking at it from Nessies angle you get

RIYADH 100%
CANADA 80% (n/h rating)
DISTINCTION 60%
FLOWNAWAY 56%
ROMANY PRINCE 56%

I overlooked RIYADH in my earlier post,which led me to believe DISTINCTION came out second.

If you take it one stage further and allow percentage reduction to determine the sort of form they are in the picture changes (this is how I saw it when posting earlier)

CANADA 100% (But again its n/h form,so whats it worth ?)
DISTINCTION 90%
MISS FARA 90%
FLOWNAWAY 75%
ROMANY PRINCE 50%

Interesting to note Chester Barnes rates Canada a small e/w chance at best and whatever the Pipe camp think about Miss Fara they wont convince me the distance is right today.Which leaves DISTINCTION clear.Before I even looked at Nessies way of sorting them I had this one clear of the field and the one that worries me is Theatre who at a bigger price is better than it has shown so far.

111
Will get back to you about that.I am not in a position to post there at the moment.

Max
I'm interested that you mentioned Theatre, that's the only horse that caught my eye at Goodwood today.

Hi Max,
Could you please tell me on what scale you use for a percentage reduction on Nessie's Tables.

Many Thanks
Ginger

EPI

The way I fiddle with the p/m's puts Distinction in front but Theatre's lto run earned it a conservative p/m in my opinion and could very well be a step ahead of the handicapper.This observation is supported by Theatre's o/r of 81 and lto's run which was a good few pounds ahead of what was expected.The thing that puts me off backing it is the step up in class which is put into perspective when comparing it with my fancy.

Max
Thanks for the further explanation. I haven't decided what to do myself yet.

GINGER

First average out the last three runs prize money,lets say the y were 6k,7k,8k giving a 7k average.Now most folks would take the above into account and compare with the rest of the field but this in my opinion is flawed because it does not give you a true picture of just how well they ran.Its all well and good having a big average but if they were beaten out of sight or stone cold last it wont highlight this.You could have an inform horse running in three 10k races thus giving you a 10k average and then find yourself comparing it with a horse beaten out of sight in three 20k races with a 20k average.On paper you know which one looks best.What i suggest is after averaging out the prizemoney you should do the same thing with the last three places,again lets say 5th,6th and 4th giving a 5 average.Then using a sliding 10% scale simply subtract the placing average from the prizemoney average as follows

av placing
1st = 100% of av prize noney
2nd = 90% "
3rd = 80 "
4th = 70% "
5th = 60% "
6th = 50% "
7th = 40% "
8th = 30% "
9th = 20% "
10th= 10% "

So if a horse has won its last three races and has an average prizemoney of 10k it keeps all of it for the purpose of race evaluation.At the other end of the scale if a horse with the same prizemoney average has a 10 last three placing average it only keeps 10%.This shows up just how well a horse is running and in what class.

Note
Any horse running unplaced (denoted with a 0)counts as 10th

I don't care what they say about a low draw not being a problem, I still wouldn't back Royal Storm from there. Otherwise I think he would have won, but not from draw 2, SURELY???

Will Vintage Premium become a listed winner today? I reckon he will.

CHAZ

re-the draw for that race

last 7 winners

7/18
6/17
2/17
6/18
8/11
4/15
5/16

Max,

I know all about that, but it still doesn't alter the bias at Goodwood when the whole picture is viewed. What makes the running of this race any different? Surely it would be wiser to take the draw statistics over all 7f races that have been run there, rather than just 7 races. You'll know there is a big advantage in handicaps over 7f when drawn in the top part of the draw, and that's how I'll be viewing this race.

I'd rather watch with no financial interest with this one.

Hi Max.agian you are right. I put in the tables VDW consitency and I try to balance the figs.

100% top rated is not always the 100% horse.

have not got the figs for 245 and 355 g/w yet.

Thanks for the help.