Thanks JIB, you've made my day. Your command of the English language is somewhat lacking it seems.

It does show though how JIB has managed to misunderstand my last posting about consistency, and it seems all of vdw's method(s).

I thought I might learn something here. I was wrong. I can find any amount of winners after the race (for God's sake my nipper can, he knows little about WW2 but decided before he knew the facts, that attacking Monte Casino was "..not very clever..") - with the exceptions of the few (read anything pipedreamer has posted I do think he knows, and Lee, though I learnt nothing from Lee - other than he knows his onions), sorry TC I know you're trying to open the thread, if I were you I'd give up while I was behind, despite your best efforts - there may well be good stuff in this thread, it just isn't worth the effort to find it.

As an after thought, most of the followers talk of VDW as a real person, rather than the figment of one persons imagination - somebody that committed suicide!

It all appears to be cloak and dagger - if anybody knows what VDW (GH) was on about just post it up and stand or fall by it - none of the bollocks about ooooh this and aaaah that, tell us for God's sake.

I don't mind working at gaining ANY information (the best info gained), but when it is so convoluted and contradictory and up it's own arse - what's the point?

Just going to write some letters!

Yes, Nofinepix, I have to agree that it is a bit of a slog trawling or raking thru all this shit to try find the odd gemstone.

Par for the course on racing message boards, I guess; there's always personality clash/jealousy/human bias that inevitably occur.

VDW and Kelly seem to be the two subjects that really get us buzzing.

Accepting that "conflict is life", I do feel that, overall, it is worth a look.
I just thank **** that other people are doing all the work!

nfpx -

thanks for the visit - contribution from one of our more rational members is very welcome.

I admit that I am well behind - but don't want to quit just yet - lets see what the response is to the present day results figures - analysis

I think that part of the problem may be that many of our newer generation of members may not even have read VDWs letters, and thus may not be in a position to discuss the issues !

I hope that my attempt to stimulate positive dicussion of the propositions presented in the first of his letters - will help revive the thread.

re your penultimate paragraph - I too am reminded of the Ouzalum bird which continued to fly in the same pointless circles before finaly dissapearing up its own arse and thus becoming extinct !

VDW is in danger of suffering the same fate - if it cannot bring itself to examine new paths - relevent to the modern game ! - 'cept we won' even get - the "Puff of Smoke and Cloud of Feathers" !!

Almost all new inventions and innovations - have as their basis - "That which has gone before "

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Tuesday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.

B 2:00 d 322- W
B 2:30 e 004- L not in 1st 5 in the betting
B 3:00 d 483- L not in 1st 5
B 3:30 g 059- W
B 4:00 e 470- L not in 1st 5
B 4:30 f 276- L not in 1st 5
B 5:00 f 550- L not in 1st 5
Y 2:15 g 718- L not in 1st 5
Y 2:45 d 777- L not in 1st 5
Y 3:15 d 606- L 4 runner race but not in 1st 3 betting
Y 3:45 a 215- L not in 1st 5
Y 4:15 e 023- W 5 runner race
Y 4:45 e 113- W
P 5:45 e 301- W 5 runner race
P 6:15 d 344- L
P 6:45 g 922- W
P 7:15 d 131- W
P 7:45 d 581- L
P 8:15 e 447- W 5 runner race
W 5:30 f 085- L
W 6:00 e 133- W
W 6:30 e 132- W 3 runner race
W 7:00 c 151- W
W 8:30 d 311- W
W 8:00 e 666- L not in 1st 5 in the betting


11 VDW winners from 25 races

10 races won by a horse not in the first 5 in the betting

Well thats it for the moment - we have reached 400+ races, and you must be going cross eyed looking a "Lists of Results" - I am!!

First and most obvious statistic -


408 races listed

234 wins are from one of the 3 most consistent horses - 57%

88 wins were from a horse not in the 1st 5 in the betting - 21%


First conclusion - from this sample - the Methodmaker and VDW concensus of 83% within the 1st 5 - is not far away !!

We experienced 79% !!

Were it not for the atrocious weather on some days it may have gone higher.


Next step is to try and make some sense of the 57% of winners - clearly "Blind" betting on the 3 most consistent - is a road to the "Poorhouse"



My first step is going to be to break down the races into varios catagories -

eg

Grade of race

Number of runners

Handicap vs Stakes

N.Hunt vs Flat

Amateur races

Sellers

Novices

Maidens

then


I hope to look at some of these catagories -examining the consistency figures of the entries in the various races.

Suggestions as to what to try and extract - Most Welcome !

tc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Tc
Thanks for all the hard work - much appreciated.
Could I suggest that you test the current veracity of a couple of VDW statements; if that is possible?
1.
Horses from the first 5/6 in the f/c that have the form figures 111 should win 33% of the races in which they feature, ( 66% if there are 2, 99% if there are 3).Also a comparison of how the favourite performed in those same races.

2.
The percentage of winners that came from the first 3 in the betting where the agregate form figures of the first 3 was 15 or below. Again, a comparison of how the favourites fared in those races.
There are other avenues to explore, but the above should give some indication of the value or otherwise of the percentages in the letters.
It will also be interesting to hear how Massey has performed from the same stats.
Once again, many thanks.
Johnd

Dont know if anyone has seen the new format in this mornings Raceform Update, but it now gives total average prize money for each horse, and average prize money for a horses last three races.

At first glance it looks like who ever has put this new format together, has done so with the basics of V.D.W. in mind.

Alan

Tuppenycat: If it's no bother could you give average field sizes per race class (simple A,B,C type stuff) separately for flat, hurdles and chases, please.

tc,
you deserve a big well done for your work

Yes, well done tuppenycat.

I feel that we'll all benefit from the analysis.

TC - you deserve a big pat on the back for all the work you have put in on this thread.

quote:

---

"Suggestions as to what to try and extract - Most Welcome !

---

You are very welcome to extract the P out of me anytime

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Trojan,

Alan - Good observation !

Be interested to see if - this is still a factor !!

Please keep us posted !!

What I do like at the moment - are some of the RP'S - new - "graphical " presentations " - Improving horses - etc !


tc

Average win & place prize-money or just average win prizemoney?.Place prize-money is gained by horses who have lost in that class.

P.S. Sure Nessie works along similar lines.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

Average Win Prize Money.

Looks very V.D.W. user friendly.

Alan.

M 4:30 Roxanne Mill

johnd - you started all this - so you get first bite at the cherry !

Factor 1 - horses with 111 form figures.

I have split these into 2 groups - those with genuine 111 form figs - and those with projected form figs - eg --1, or -11.

-

Horses with 111 form figs

WINS 3

9 aug - 111
8.30 thr ---f 3-14-16 f win -winner 111 7/2

14 aug - 111
3.25 new ---f 3-13-13 f win -winner 111 3/1

18 aug - 111
2.25 yor -2f 3-10-9 f loss -winner 111 6/1

LOSSES 8

12 aug - 111
4.15 sal --f 3-5-18 f loss -winner 044 3/1

15 aug - 111
3.30 ba not f 3-7-9 f loss -winner 192 20/1

17 aug - 111
3.00 yor --f 3-5-5 f loss -winner 423 3/1

19 aug - 2 horses 111 + 111 neither f
4.30 yor --- 3-3-4 f win -winner 542 3/1

20 aug - 111
3.25 ayr -2f 3-4-11 f win -winner 121 4/6

21 aug - 111
2.40 ch --f 3-9-13 f loss -winner 037 8/1

22 aug - 111
3.10 na -2f 3-4-4 f loss -winner 121 5/1

24 aug - 111
3.45 yor --f 3-6-8 f loss winner 2-1-5 10/1


11 races gives 3 winners and 8 loosers


-----------


Horses with projected form figures

WINS 4

8 aug - 4 horses --1 + --1 + --1 + -11 _ 7 runner race
3.30 win --f 3-3-3 f win -winner --1 11/10

9 aug -11
6.45 win -2f 3-7-15 f loss -winner -11 11/4

14 aug --1
2.15 new -2f 3-4-6 f loss -winner --1 6/1

17 aug - 2 horses - --1 + --1
3.35 yor --f 3-3-5 f loss -winner --1 5/2



LOSSES 14

9 aug --1
5.15 so --f 3-12-10 f loss -winner 631 14/1

11 aug --1
6.25 ha not f 3-4-16 f won -winner -21 4/6

11aug --1
6.40 sa jtf 3-4-6 cof won -winner 711 6/4

11 aug --1
4.00 sa not f 3-8-9 f loss -winner 145 6/4

13 aug --1
5.45 new jtf 3-14-18 cof won -winner 734 4/1

14 aug --1
2.10 ri not f 3-5-7 f won -winner 282 9/4

14 aug --1
5.05 new --f 3-6-11 f loss -winner 632 13/2

16 aug --1
4.15 not not f 3-5-6 f won -winner -31 7/2

18 aug - 2 horses --1 + -11 neither f
1.50 yor --- 3-3-4 f loss -winner 145 16/1

19 aug --1
5.25 fon --f 3- 15-21 f loss -winner 000 10/1

20 aug -11
2.10 ch --f 3-5-7 f loss -winner 656 10/1

21 aug --1
6.20 lin --f 3-5-10 f loss winner 415 20/1

21 aug --1
2.50 sa -2f 3-6-11 f loss -winner 800 33/1

21 aug - 2 horses -11 + -11
2.15 san --f 3-3-5 f loss -winner 411 9/2


18 races gives 4 winners and 14 loosers

---------

Summing all of the - 111s - (both genuine and projected -


There are a total of 29 races - giving -


7 WINS and 22 LOOSERS

24% Winners


comments ??

tc

johnd -

re factor 2 -

The percentage of winners that came from the first 5/6 in the betting where the agregate form figures of the first 3 was 15 or below. Again, a comparison of how the favourites fared in those races.


The races which included 111 form horses are obviously shown above - but the following races also feature in this catagory -


18 aug
3.00 yor - 5-4-5 f loss -winner 2f 113 7/2


17 aug
4.10 yor - 4-4-6 f loss -winner 333 13/2



thus we have 13 qualifiers

8 aug 3-3-3 win
14 aug 3-4-6 win
17 aug 3-3-5 win
18 aug 5-4-5 win
22 aug 4-4-3 win

11 aug 3-5-4 loss
14 aug 3-7-5 loss
17 aug 4-4-6 loss
17 aug 3-5-5 loss
18 aug 3-3-4 loss
19 aug 3-3-4 loss
20 aug 3-5-7 loss
21 aug 3-3-5 loss

of the 13 qualifying races

5 Winners - 8 Loosers

38% winners

???

tc

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Tc
Brilliant work
Will need time to assimilate but will reply when I have had a good look.
The 2nd set of figures look way out from his percentages.
You are a star!