You posted as I was writing my reply to Fulham. Thank you for correcting me on my assumptions, I find it strange that nobody had previously done so and I'm now puzzled by your post of a few weeks ago in which you said that if one were only to bet on horses proven at the distance one wouldn't be able to bet in the Derby etal. What did you mean by that? So far nobody has given me any reason to think that the Derby is a particularly good betting opportunity.

Epiglotis

This is, of course, pure speculation, but it is my view that, when he was posting evaluations etc pre racing, and often for numerous races (see, for example, Cheltenham 2002), Guest made mistakes, as we are all prone to do when rushing. Indeed, I've pointed out one or two (re ability rating calculations) on the thread as I've gone along.

I have every reason to believe that Guest's strike rate is what he says it is; that as he says, like us all he still has some way to go before consistently hitting 80%+; and that, from the point of view of his personal performance, cutting down on his posts, especially pre racing, was the right thing to do, even if it deprives the likes of Determined, Investor and me of some benchmarks against which to cross-check our own selections.

On a more general point, why on earth do you think that people like Guest and me put in all the hours we've spent researching VDW if the pay-off isn't there?

You have just said that Guest chose the correct horse in the Derby so how was he rushing it? You have not said that he made incorrect choices in the National yet none of his three selections were even placed. Are you really incapable of drawing any conclusions from this?

Editing on here is a bit Awkward!!

To Answer your second sentence a BIG yes but should not a “winner in the race” Have that attribute anyway?


Your 3rd sentance
Stray Shot was a beaten Fav but What was it beaten by?

Havent a clue about the Erin
Apart from he slung out BL by saying Ratings showed him well out of it
And the Erin was only one race on the day not as on boxing day when he said you only back these 2 because of this reason


5th sentence

Is exactly what I said

Lol

Epiglotis

First, I did not say that Guest chose the correct horse in the Derby. Rather, I said:

(a) that, from the three most popular in the market prior to yesterday, he sorted out the one that finished (well) ahead of the others and, in so doing, did, as I'd expect, better than those with either a less sure, or downright wrong, grip on VDW's approach;

(b) that, with Kris Kin, it was impossible, from a VDW perspective, to prefer him to Alamshar, and in the Derby, as in other races, the unpredictable, from a VDW perspective, happens from time to time.

Second, the fact that, in the Grand National, things didn't work out with Guest's book was unfortunate, but these things happen. Even someone who does regularly sustain a 80%+ strike rate is going to have up to 20% losers. With Guest's strike rate, approx. one in three of his bets will lose. But with a range of prices (he's pre-posted individual winners, not part of books, on this thread at 8/1 and 7/1, as well as some at much shorter prices), and the fact that he has said he utilises a variation on the staking plan VDW showed us, I have no doubt that he is a major and consistent winner.

JIB

It's not a question of contributing to the downfall of William Hill. As Guest has again posted, it's (or at least was 'til the advent of betting exchanges) a question of relatively modest investments carefully placed so as not to arouse undue attention. What can be a decent income, or supplement to other income, for the individual is trivial to the bookmakers, given the huge number of gamblers around, provided they don't notice.

Yesterday, as I pre-posted, I arbed Jazz Messenger, which meant laying on Betfair (no problems there with amounts), and backing with Ladbrokes, mainly in betting shops.

As we went around yesterday afternoon, collecting the £325 a time return to the £50 maximum Ladbrokes will take on a well backed early price horse, staff in some shops commented on "the big win" - and that was only £325! If you win regularly, getting serious money on with the bookmakers, whether account or shops, takes organisation and discretion if one wants to be able to continue to back unnoticed and unhindered. I just hope that the next successful Pricewise selection is best priced at Hills or Corals, as that is now two Saturdays running we've had to do the Ladbrokes loop locally.

That's a good one but exactly which of the recent posts do you find the funniest?

Boozer
What's occuring your getting all vdw'ified,I hope that you have seen the merits of the methods or have you always known there what was to gain, once a few things fell into place.

Did Guest get it right in VDW terms in the Derby? Why is VDW methodology incapable of dealing with Kris Kin? Did Guest get it right with all 3 of his choices in the National? Why is Guest's strike rate so extraordinarily reduced in these big meetings? You can carry on like this answering with hollow excuses or you can see the shortcomings in your results, address the problem of where you're going wrong and try to improve your performance, which of these two behavioural paths would most benefit you? How did you get to be so devoid of vim? Is it too much Prozak? Open your ****ing eyes, people are trying to help you.
When you answer this throw out the diversionary bullshit and just address the issues, your posts are over verbose and wander from the point, it's taken 3 pages and several hours to get this far so I will shortly be off to the pub.

Hi Epi,
I would say there's to many to remember,And everyone to their own to what ones they find funny,

Fulham and others who have found the missing link

Why is there a problem on posting the missing link up on the board,
Would it not help the people struggling to come to terms with what VDW wrote,
Maybe even stop the arguments,Well some of them on what is meant to be the class/form horse,
And maybe just stop most of the arguments on this thread,
Good luck,Rab

Epiglotis

You are right, in that all this is taking up too much time with no real benefit. Enjoy the pub.


Rab

The answer to your question, I assume, is that it is not in the interests of those who think they've found it for it to be in the public domain, which is not to say that some, Guest most notably, aren't prepared to give helpful clues to those prepared to put in the time and effort.

I take your reply to indicate a reluctance to review your progress.

Epiglotis

Take it any way you like.

Johnd
Thanks for your reply the other day.There is obviously more than one way to skin a cat.

I considered yesterday quite difficult,but my interpretation of vdw showed Nysean as a bet today,whether it is vdw or not,someone might enlighten me.

Guest,
Glad to see you back posting,hope you continue to.Would you mind giving one what you would consider classic,(excuse the pun), vdw type that has run this flat season.I know you have given some in the past,but one from this flat season would be appreciated,just to see how I'm going.

I like it when you blow your cool, your humanity peeks through.

Epiglotis
It has been said time and again that certain individuals have done a lot of research into these methods,And have found some common denominators that will seperate horse A from horse B so to speak.Why is it so difficult to accept this,You say to Fulham that you are trying to help,HOW, Have you researched all the horse that vdw gave,Do you have the relevant form books to back up the assumptions you make and lastly do you possess the books that contain the articles,And of course we all know the answer to that.So that brings us to the question how can you criticise,You only answer i can come up with is,You can't.

I'm not criticising, I'm offering helpfull suggestions. Why are you idiots so alienated?

Fulham

Thanks for your reply,
Many on this forum dont believe the missing link exists,I myself is undecided,
Would you and the others who have this info be prepared to say give the info to a third party and then they could post up if they think it exists,
I cant speak for the man i have in mind but im sure everybody would listen to him and give him respect that he did not need to tell what it is,
My thinking on the matter is more people might listen and try to learn if there is an answer to solving racing
Good luck,Rab

Epiglotis
How can you offer helpful suggestions,When you don't have the slightest idea of how these methods work,And also the hours and hours of study people have put into these methods.That said there can only be one idiot on this thread at the moment.