Not "bookies use tissues 'cause they're a bunch of wankers"?

Didn't you have a link to the -

"Spells it all out" article" ???


tc

A bit of info. Teletext.co.uk fc are same as Daily mail.

Also now the Racingpost keeps previuous cards on pdf starting 25/9/03 which is v. handy.


But question stil remains. Odds compiliers get it right most of the time - first3 in betting etc etc. So what critera do they use?

All the systems out there 90% use forcast in a chosen paper.so why not just use the forecast any way. so often we look for value. that means to me to try an d pick a horse that should be a shorter price. But the forecast is right 80% of the time.WHo has a better strike rate than that.
Could this be the 80% VDw talked about.Prices where better back then so his prices reflectd that. Today vdw would still be backing thge head of themarket wouldnt he. but his proces would be much shorter.

The more Ithink of it this really must be the answer. Pick the 1st 3 that are well clear of the rest on fc. Compare the form using his methods and back as many as possible.

Feck me its a pot of gold.

That sound like 111s level - epi !!!!

tc

hardly a polemical debate tho !

so look at the odds look at the opposition look at the capabilty ability probalty stuff put it throgh the pc and we get for today..

 2:40 - 103.98%   5 run
  Sponsor At Ludlow Beginners' Chase (Class E) (5yo+)  Winner £3,347.50
Betting Forecast, 4/6 Burning Truth, 9/4 Rainbow Dance, 13/2 Doberman ( 16/1 Beedulup)

1  7825 Beedulup 32  P Wegmann  8 11-0v1 W Marston  75 - 94 
2  3F22 Burning Truth 7   M Sheppard  9 11-0 T J Murphy  112 99 129 
3  2333 Doberman 2  P D Evans  8 11-0v Antony Evans(5)  99 17 106 
4  4F42 Rainbow Dance 5   Jonjo O´Neill  7 11-0tb A P McCoy  103 69 121  

back as many as poss.

if only it was as easy as that.

TISSUE PRICES
Have just called a friend who is an on-course bookie, and this is what he told me;
There were 3 people, in different regions, who supplied and sold their forecasts to bookies in their region.
A number of bookies, surprisingly, used to do their own, including my mate's father; Some just took the prices from the racing press.
Now, however, things have changed,and with the advent of a lot of a lot of new blood, owing to the ability to sell their pitches, the majority now use Betfair, and pitch their prices inside those. Quite a number of bookies have Betfair on throughout the day, for laying, and for prices.
Hope this helps.

BT

I am replying to your post on the "JIB/Swish" thread here, because that thread had, when I tried a moment ago, no "reply" facility. Whether that is because it is being closed, there is a fault on the board, or at my end I don't know.

Your point about me being self-contradictory is a simple mis-reading on your part. When I worked with a very limited interpretation of VDW, courtesy of Jock Bingham's work, I found relatively few bets. But, with a broader understanding, courtesy of Guest and a great deal of work on my part, for the last year or so I've been finding many more. Indeed, as I've come, very cautiously, to lay clear VDW losers as well as backing what I think are likely winners, my number of bets has more or less trebled even over the last two months.

These days, on the occasions I have both the time and inclination to study all the races I think are worth consideration, it is unusual not to find either one to back or lay. And I know from elsewhere that other VDWers, also in to laying as well as backing, and no doubt both more skillful and focused on the day's cards than me, are placing many times the number of bets than I am. Indeed, I would be confident that some are placing more in a week than I used to place in a year.

And its anothr winner for VDW. BurningTruth at 2/5.

Im on my way!

Epi

Far from it the bookmakers are just the middle men who redistribute the wealth from the mugs to the shrewdies, taking a cut on the way for the service.
Remember that in the long run we don't win off the bookmakers, we win off the other backers.

Rob

So, the superduper hotshot VDW'ers on the private thread are now reduced to laying horses at meagre prices on Betfair. So much for their intimate understanding of the method which produces so many winners.
You deserve each other!

re ---- VDW "Spells it all out"

or (alternativly)

Van der Wheil Method (clik!)

VDW stated, that because many readers were unable to follow his pattern of working, he condensed it down to a simple formula -
(which occurs on a number of occasions in his writings) :--

Consistant form + Ability + Capability + Hard Work = Winners.


In the "spells it all out" article, he discussed each of these "elements" in turn, and - logicaly he did so in the order in which they occured in the formula !

The "Consistant form" and "Ability" elements are pretty obvious, and I have suggested that the "Probability" element is presented at the end of the article.

But where you ask is the "Capability" element ??


Those of you looking for "The Missing Link", "Quick Fix" or "Holy Grail" etc - are going to be Dissapointed !!

As "Deep Thought" (clik!) said "You are not going to like this". (and the answer is not 42!)


The answer lies in two short paragraphs in the middle of the article.

quote:

---

At this stage do not make any automatic assumptions. The required data has been put together and it is now necessary to establish if any of the three portable's have good claims for support. Always start appraisal by looking at the horse with the highest ability rating and check how it balances with the other data.

In this race everything is straightforward . Little Owl has the highest ability rating and there is nothing in the other elements to suggest any upset, indeed all evidence shows it ought to be a good thing . To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned,

""taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stages of each race.""

---

I'm sorry, but that is the "Hard Work" element - and if you don't like it - then VDW is not for you !!

I suggest that the element "Capability" is that which has been most neglected on this thread in the past, and that it is the area, which has the most potential for "New" input and discussion.

Who wants to "Throw me to the Lions"


tc



A "Proper" VDW bet must include "ALL" elements of the formula !!!

[This message was edited by Tuppenycat on October 09, 2003 at 04:54 PM.]

tc

Your "silver" seems to consist entirely of re-cycling other people's posts and extracts from VDW's letters. When are we going to see something ORIGINAL - as rather suggested by your claim as a lateral thinker?



Johnd

Not reduced. Simply utilising developments since "the VDW years" to find more bets and make more money. It's an addition, not a reduction, and the marvellous thing is that both kinds of bet come from, literally, precisely the same hard work: a case of two birds with one stone.

VDW in it's entirety consists of rehashing someone else's thoughts and words. Are you trying to pick another fight Fulham? Certainly no way to encourage a poster with an interest in VDW and considering that you've been posting the same empty message for more than a year you're in no position to criticise along these lines.

FULHAM
You don't get it do you?
You and Guest have blagged your way along this thread for a considerable time, trying to convince everyone that you really understand VDW, and that your appproach is bringing in winner after winner.
If that were anything like the case, then you wouldn't even have to consider backing a string of odds-on shots by laying on Betfair.
Oh, the price of vanity!

No fulham

I was not trying to be "Original" in that Post !

There has to be a starting piont for a discusion , and I was suggesting that this was an area which offered opportunities for members.

(particularly VDW enthuthiasts such as your self)

to contribute "New and original" thoughts to the debate !)

quote:

---

I suggest that the element "Capability" is that which has been most neglected on this thread in the past, and that it is the area, which has the most potential for "New" input and discussion

---

I included a "link" for the benifit of those who

"Do not have the Books"

in order that as many as possible might participate

If you choose to try and destroy any discussion before it starts -

then it says a lot about your motives for remaining on this thread !!



tc

Nessie

"Pionts" ispelt that way deliberatly - your input is most wecome !

Johnd

The whole point of VDW is to make as much money as possible via the correct evaluation of horse races. We now have two options, when in VDW's day there was, realistically, only one. You'd have to be insane not to take advantage of the "won't win" evaluations as well as the "a probable winner" ones.


tc

My mistake. Do be sure to let us know when you post something you regard as original: I would hate to miss it.

Johnd,

In your post re tissues you said the bookies had changed their method of working. Would we not be foolish to do the same? These bookies have been making good money over the years so why change?

I have to admit it is down to my son that I have started laying. Out of the mouths of babies is the expression. I was going through a race and said that can't win. Next thing he had laid it for big money (well big for me). I still can't except laying out £100 to win the same amount if you stand the chance of losing far more than that. So I stick to the odds on shots, and if I think they can't win I will lay them up to evens. Now I except I can't make big money like that, but it does provide the stake for my next bet. So most of the bets are without using my money.

TC,

I can't understand why you think capability is the least used category, to be honest I think it is the hard work that is used the least. So many people want the easy life, pick up the paper have a quick scan apply a few rules and away you go. I do feel you are starting to fall into the trap. Fulham is one of the most helpful people you could meet when it comes to VDW.

I agree many of the VDW ideas had been around for years. VDW was the first person that started to show us how to use them. We are being told we have been doing it wrong. To have a discussion surely the best way is by starting to explain how we are wrong. Then to explain how the factors can be put to better use. If you change the basics it won't be VDW.

Be Lucky

Thanks for the reply -

No I agree with you !

That was the point that I was trying to highlight -

without a lot of "Hard Work" the punter is not going to be able to "Crack" the "Capability" element of the formula.

He needs to go beyond the "Daily Paper" and look at recent performances of the "Selected" - 3 or 4 - to try and find a "Performance" that "Stands Out" only then can he say -- " This Horse has the "Capability" to "Win" this Race "

Hard Work is The "Key"



tc



That was one reason that I Highlighted in "Bold" - VDWs Comment "Most Importantly"

tc

We (all) agree about something! Red letter day.

tc