Thanks for posting that. It almost seems too obvious to say but as it seems Guest and the like cant get it: it's impossible for a horse to take a drop in class by running in the highest class race.

You are correct looking at it in the conventional way

Leaving aside ability ratings and thinking of the term drop in class

A horse is engaged for 2 races
He is coming from a £10,000 handicap Lto where he has run well showing improvement

Race 1
Is a £6000 handicap where he has to shoulder top weight

Race 2 is a £12000 handicap where he has 6 horses above him in the handicap carrying more weight and based on OR’s are higher class horses
But in this race the 6 higher class horses above him are out of form, and/or not in the first 6 in the betting forecast etc etc in other words based on the metholodology they might as well not bother turning up

What is the difference?

More importantly if the above is correct, which is the best scenario for the horse
Bearing in mind that in the second race the weight burden is taken off his back by out of form horses
Similar is it not to a trainer leaving a top weight in a race so another animal from the same stable doesn’t have to carry as much in physical weight.

Mtoto
Can you argue with the above looking at it from your thoughts on the weight angle

Thanks, a completely clear explanation of a reasonable idea.

Epi, arrogant fool that you are, try reading one of the books and whether you think VDW really did back the examples he gave, he clearly says they were bets or is that just too simple for you to understand.

As I said this morning, I am sick to the back teeth of the arguing on this thread especially with people who haven't even read the material being discussed. Others can vouch that far from the bigger the meeting the bigger loss scenario, the exact opposite is the case and my post on Sunday stated that exact point.

So my final two words on here are mainly directed at you Epi and JohnD.

UP YOURS

That's all very well but I dont believe everything I read, I have a well developed critical faculty. I'll ask you again: if you're looking at suitable races, why are your results so poor? This isn't about personalities, I'm not trying to 'get at' you, I'm not after your position on the thread, I'm just trying to get you to recognise an area in which you are causing yourself to fail. Once you can deal with that reality we can set about co-operatively trying to make the thing work.

VDW intended to give something back.

Sightly further on down the line.

Che Van der Wheil used many lines of investigation and evaluation because each race individual race presented different problems for him to solve.Hotform was right in his assumtion that the analysis of race 2871 last season was different to the method that adopted Ability/Consistency ratings as a platform to see if there is a winner in a race.However, both methods aim to identify the class/form horse. If after exhausting all methods and you still cannot find a winner in a race, then dont bet.(Temperament).
Let`s look at the method Hotform mentioned.
Concentrate on the first five in the betting forecast (Racing Post).

Race 3465 (Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham March17)

B/F/C : 11/4 Istabraq 6/1 Dato Star 6/1 Im Supposin 7/1 Shadow Leader 14/1 Pridwell.

Consistency :Istabraq (3) Dato Star (6) Im Supposin (10) Shadow Leader (5) Pridwell (5).

Ability/Class :Istabraq (236) Dato Star (76) Im Supposin (86) Shadowc Leader (171) Pridwell (67).

Highest Class :Istabraq (341) Dato Star (123) Im Supposin (188) Shadow Leader (No wins this season) Pridwell (154)

Istabraq is super consistent has the highest class rating and has also achieved the highest class win this season.
Result Istabraq won 3/1.
.............................................

Race 3496 (Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle,Cheltenham March 18.

B/F/C : 7/4 French Holly 7/1 Erintante 7/1 Foxchapel King 9/1 Cloone Bridge 12/1 Torboy.

Consistency : French Holly (3) Erintante (9) Foxchapel King (8) Cloone Bridge (10) Torboy (11).

Ability/Class : French Holly (54) Erintante (35)
Foxchapel King (32) Cloone Bridge (33) Torboy (28).

Highest Class : French Holly (159) Erintante (69) Foxchapel King (40) Cloone Bridge (40) Torboy (28).

French Holly is again super consistent, has the highest class rating and has also achieved the highest class win this season

Result French Holly won 2/1.

..............................................

At the time of writing, I have just read `Close Encounters of the VDW Kind`. The author may find the the analysis of race 4148 enlightening and increase profitability of his selection method. I would ask the question why move from the original platform?.By coincidence, race 4148 was the next engagement for Stanton Harcourt. To save space, I have reduced the original field to the main contenders.

Race 4148 (Class 135) One Mile Handicap, Doncaster Sept 13th 1997.

Horses : Restructure, Stanton Harcourt, Yorkie George, Jo Mell, Al Azhar, Russian Music, Pomona.

Previous Race & Distance : Restructure (98/7f) Stanto Harcourt (171/1m) Yorkie George (482/6f) Jo Mell (235/7f202yds) Al Azhar (97/1m1f) Russian Music (235/7f202yds) Pomona (47/1m)

Restructure, Al Azhar and Pomona can be discarded as they are all raised in class. Pomona achieved a decent speed figure last time, but note the course was Windsor Doncaster is a different proposition.
Yorkie George ran in the highest class, but could only finish 17th, hardly the kind of form to win this race.Jo Mell ran in the same race as Russian Music and is not weighted to reverse the placing.
Stanton Harcourt is again dropping in class, but showed a downturn in form judged by the speed figure achieved. Also has not raced for 55 days.Why?

In race 3051 (class 123) Russian Music recorded a SF of 51. Next pushed up in class to 225, recorded a season best of 78, giving an indication that the horse is being primed to win.Now being dropped in class for this race and set to carry 1lb less having shown improved form and is shown to be a probable winner in the race.

Result Russin Music won 8/1.

...........................................

To bring the reader more up-to-date, take a look at the following, which I evaluated on the day of the race.Most of the the contestants have not run since last season. However, the analysis demonstates how reliable class/form can be.

Race 485 Doncaster 3.40 March 28,1998. 6f (listed).

Horses : Tedburrow, Monaasib, Carranita, Brave Edge, Classy Cleo, Patsy Grimes, Cretan Gift, Superior Premium, Selhurstpark Flyer.

previous Race Class: Tedburrow (182) Monassib (594) Carranita (109) Brave Edge (109) Classy Cleo (55) Patsy Grimes (49) Cretan Gift (55) Superior Premium (109) Selhurstpark Flyer (499).

Last Speed Figure : Tedburrow (47) Monassib (99) Carranita (4) Brave Edge (8) Classy Cleo (36) Patsy Grimes (38) Cretan Gift (78) Superior Premium (58) Selhurstpark Flyer (54).

Last Placing : Tedburrow (10th) Monassib (2nd) Carranita (11th) Brave Edge (12th) Classy Cleo (9th) Patsy Grimes (10th) Cretan Gift (1st) Superior Premium (4th) Selhurstpark Flyer (21st).

The probable winner in a race is Monassib. Note last season Monassib won a group 3 event in Germany and broke the course record in doing so .Also, the last race of the season for Monassib was a group 2 event at Ascot.He achieved an SF in the highest class race, 21lbs better than the nearest rival.Now set to take a massive drop in class.
Although Monassib has not raced raced since last season, the horse won its first four races last year and appears to run well when fresh.Also `On The Gallops` (Raceform Issue 766) reported monassib, who has a Cammidge Trophy entry on saturday, looked well when going past National wish in a strong piece of work.

Result Monassib won 9/4.

.......................................

It is my understanding that VDW intended to give something back. This he did free of charge, by placing signposts on the pages of Sports Forum.
Classform.

Again these races are easily accessable on the racing post website Happy Hunting .

GUEST
Would you kindly save your abuse for the private thread as some on here are very sensitive?

[This message was edited by johnd on October 07, 2003 at 02:35 PM.]

Hi Boozer,

Interesting scenario, you ask me what race would be the easiest for him to win.

Before I can answer that I would need a few more details, but I will try. First I must say weight doesn't come into it at ANY stage for me it is all down to CLASS. The class of the horse against the class of the opposition. Weight is used to bring the horse to the same level. I think the theory is weight uses energy, so will slow the horse down, but will less weight speed it up? For me the question is does weight use more energy than a faster run race? The higher the class the better the horses, the better the horses the better the pace. I don't think it's the weight that stops them it's the class.

In your example you use prize money as the guide for class. What if the £10,000 races is restricted to horses rated 95. The £12,000 races is for horses rated 105, and the £6,000 is rated for horses 85.

Your horse has proven he can hold is own with horses rated up to 100. Will he be able to hold his own in the higher grade? I understand the higher rated horses are out of form, but form in this class or weaker? These out of form horses, are they out of form because they have been running against better class animals? Although out of form are they getting better? Will your horse be able to go the faster pace the improvement in class will need? If he went for the £6,000 race he is the best horse running against weaker horses. He has proven he can go a faster pace than will be need to win this.

I would say the lower class race would be the easiest for him to win. A lot more factors would have to be looked at, the most important (to me) would be the courses involved. Then other factors like the style of running, this would also involve the competitions style as well.

Hope some of this makes sense to you, I find it hard to put thoughts into words.

Be Lucky

Race 4148

Missing data.

Placing lto: Restructure (4th) Stanton Harcourt (1st) Yorkie George (17th) Jo Mell (7th) Al Azhar (2nd) Russian Music (3rd) Pomona (1st).

Last Speed Figure : Restructure (59) Stanton Harcourt (63) Yorkie George (63) Jo Mell (47) Al Azhar (66) Russian Music (78) Pomona (71).

Last RHR : Restructure (110) Stanton Harcourt (104) Yorkie George (98) Jo Mell (75) Al Azhar (99) Russian Music (111) Pomona (91).

GUMMY
If you take a look at the RSUK board, you will see that Fulham, (Alan B), has now started trawling on there for members for his private thread.
The man really has no scruples. Isn't it time you kicked him off, before he does any more damage to this board?
Johnd.

I realy have to support johnd 's comments !

The irreverent humour of 111s,- the informed comment from Jimmy ,- and not least - the erudite input from "JIB" are sorely missed on this forum !!

They all recognised the "Private Members / High Priests" - for what they are, - and to be left with this bunch of bloody w******'s - is bloody annoying !!

Only you can retrieve the situation !!!!



tc

Johnd

1) "his" board - not at all, as (literally) a score or more of Gummy members know;

2) even if I was trawling for members for the VDW board on RSUK - which most emphatically I am not - it is difficult for me to see how that would have any relevance whatsoever to this thread.

You really are a sad fellow.

Not related to "Blair" or "Campbell" by chance - are you ???

Your ability to "obfuscate" is at certainly - On their level !!!



tc

tc

The other day, you promised to make a positive contribution to this thread. I'm sure I'm not the only one eagerly waiting. There again, male contraceptives apart, our Australian friends have never been major contributors to the world's intellectual life, so perhaps my hopes will prove misplaced.

April 2nd 1983 - Ultimate wheil of Fortune !!

--

quote:

---

Using the methods as intended when all the methods come into balance is a force to be respected and those who select just parts , or fail to understand the concept as a whole , will not succeed. It is all too easy to go astray and start blaming the method when all the time the fault lies with yourself

---

---

Why do you and the rest of the "High Priests " still continue to -"Select Just Parts" and "Ignore the Concept as a Whole" !!

Start to look at - "Capability and Probabilty - giving them the same Weight as your "bloody - Class/ Form "

Take some interest in other folks "input" and you might just "Get somewhere" !!!


tc

tc

Thanks for confirming my expectations of Australian intellectual prowess. If you re-read my longish post of a few days ago, I was saying essentially the same thing. Ability + Form get one on the right path, but it is reasonable to assume that it is only when Capability and Probability are properly tackled that one will achieve what VDW achieved.

Now, if you'd had anything fresh to say about Probability, that would have been interesting.

TC,

Why do you think Capability and Probability haven't been taken into account when the c/form (best horse) is announced? The fact that everyone doesn't use the same data in these categories doesn't mean they haven't tried.

Some put weight into the form column, others use it in the capability. The floor is all yours, they are doing it all wrong, it doesn't work. All you have to do is come up with something constructive, and show us how it works.

You mentioned the trainer, how do you select which trainer/horse to follow? You highlighted Chivalry, what has he done to make you think he could win the race. I know I don't have to remind you VDW said it's what they do on the track that counts. Far Lane had also run the race the year before why not select him? He was backed from 14/1 into 9/1 on the course were as Chivalry was 8-9/1 in the morning and drifted to 14/1. If Far Lane had won would he have been the horse chosen to highlight we should be following trainers?

The floors all yours (and Johnd's) bring this thread back to life. You at least have the books. All I ask is at least a few of the ideas marry up to the selections given by VDW. After all it is HIS ideas we are trying to solve.

Be Very Lucky

Fulham you bloody fool ! -

re -read "Spells it all out" --

Probability is "All about" -- "Odds" !!!!

VDW says

quote:

---

if someone offers you 6/4 aginst a 3-1 on shot - then take it !!

---

quote:

---

Why ?, go back to the begining and you will find it all tied up with temperament and odds

---

!!!

Am I and VDW - wrong ???



tc

Sorry

"Chivalry" is not realy pure VDW nor is my previos example in the Amature Race - that I Quoted !

However "Dutching" is pure "VDW" and in fields of this size then he admits to "Backing" up to 5 horses!!! - I think "Chivalry" would have been one of them - given Prescotts reputation - the consistancy of the horse and Prescotts previose attempts to win this Race !! - Not "VDW" as we presently know it !!!

They are just examples of a - "Bee in my Bonnet" that I currently have about - Trainer - and Trainer/Jockey statistics ! -- Ignore them - untill I post those thoughts on another Thread !!

tc




Weight ??

yus !!

it involves "Trainer Intentions" -- But as yet I have nothing "Positive" to contribute in this area - Am still thinking about it !

Jimmy and Johnd and yourself probably have more insight into this area than I have at the moment ! -- Would wecome some pointers as to your thinking !!!

tc

[This message was edited by Tuppenycat on October 07, 2003 at 10:21 PM.]

If you are confused as to what this "Spat" is all about then ---

Get an "intro" to VDW - "Here"

tc