Epi
The assumption of a 'pattern' in Millenary's form, is yours, not mine!
I am no vet, but it isn't unreasonable to surmise that older horses are like older people, in that they take longer to get fit.
In his first race of the season, a relatively low class affair, he was beaten 29l. Two weeks later he showed significant improvement to win a higher class race by a comfortable 3l.
He then went missing for 3 months, for whatever reason, it was unlikely to have beeen part of his training schedule.
He reappeared in a decent class race, where he ran well, but below the form of his previous win.
Given his earlier form this season, it was not unreasonable to expect him to improve again. Add to that that he was the only gp1 winner in the race, and Darasim apart (Whose lto form was questionable), had the best form this season, and the signs were there to see.
I will say it again; it is wrong to assume that every horse in every race is trained to the minute, and trainers do some strange things with their charges, but the clues are there in the form book.
I didn't back Millenary because of the presence of Darasim, as it turned out he ran a poor race, the signs again were there in his form, but in his case I misinterpreted them.

Barney
That was of course the answer i expected,Any comments on t other races.

What do people think about the fact that Millenary was racing over 4f further than he'd won over before, and 2f further than LTO?

(Epi has suggested that this would make him a no bet in VDW terms, which I would agree with).

And JIB,
" Kasthari looked well out of it on a form basis but if the horse was yours wouldnt you have had a conversation with the trainer reminding him that it was time for a bit of silverware? The price was v short for a horse whose previous wins were only two class E Nov Hdls"
As witnessed, the trainer had obviously done a good job with him! But however good they think the horse is, to expect to put him up against Millenary and High Accolade etc. and win would be too much to ask most horses on most occasions.

Don't we need methods that rely on the horse having some past form? When I was a little boy, I'd listen to my old aunts gather around the b&w tv picking their horses out, then one of them would trundle down to the bookmaker to put their two bob (or whatever it was) on. I would join in by using the only selection method at my disposal - Lester Piggott or Jeff Lewis!

I dont know how you end up with yoshka.

Barney
If you read the post again i said "The one that interests me"

Barney
Iv'e just heard Mc criric say that That in the mallard 13 of the 16 have been won by a 3yold so maybe Yoshka has a better chance than you think.

Luckily though vdw told us to use cold unemotional logic, so we are not swayed by such clap trap.

Barney
Yoshka went lame,What age was the winner.And a form horse.

yes but yoshka was the third c/f from the consitent horses.

iceman to lose now and ive got a double whammy

Barney
I wouldn't have backed Yoshka or the winner with your money.And as for iceman iv'e given reasons why he could win and iv'e also given the negatives.But at least i have given an example to look at,Have you?If he loses so be it but my money isn't down so there isn't a problem.

going nowhere this

but surely you will concede that your "interests" should be based AT LEAST in the fundamentals of VDW so as not to confuse. Red Fort is the only good thing today but not at the price.

Barney
Stop trying to be little my contributions to this thread,I know that Yoshka wasn't the c/f horse I just made a comment that it would be interesting to see how he ran.Like you i have the boks and i have also got the form books,Are you telling me that iceman doesn't have a lt of the factors that are evident in the examples.because if you are i'm stunned into silence.As for confusing You put f all up so there's no chance of you confusing anybody.All you seem to want to do these days is be little or degrade others interpretaions.Let me ask you one final thing,Are you achieving 80% if you are put up,If not shut the f up.

yeh, and dont sell em yet! You want to keep looking for a bit longer.

Iceman is miles off, sure it has a couple of things, not a vdw type selection as long as he had a hole in his arse.

sorry to see you have turned into a know all as well.

Garstonf there goes another down the pan! keep looking.

investor -

Bloody well done !!

You were absolutly right about the 5lbs -

as Gosden said, he felt it was too much - and was worth 2 lengths - he suggestet that 3lb would have been fairer - and that would just have sqeeked it !!

You getting - and deserve respect on this thread -

I wish that a certain other member would get the message !

Barney
i gave an evaluation of the,Iceman was giving away 5lbs to the rest of the field that is equivalent to 2 lgs which is a lot,He went down by 0.5 of a length i rate that a very good pemance considering So i was justified in my decision not to back the horse.I am not a know all i'm just trying to put what i have seen in the form books into some kind of context on this thread.You want to do the same and maybe you wouldn't be treated like the wanker that you have turned out to be.You were exactly the same on a thread that was purely vdw.As soon as anybody got to close to the bone the shutters came down.I have learnt enough through the form books and if jib wants them he can have them.Or even you because the form books you have must be different to mine.Now go and have a nice game of golf but don't piss in the wind,Fourrr .

mine are different, they are a full set in matched cream calfskin leather.

luckily for some, unfortunate for these nice people here, you arnt putting VDW's methods into any kind of context at all.

Language Timothy!

Barney
I didn't know you was into kinky lingerie,OOOH er.

and swimsuits as well........ Pamela Anderson..........red bikini......... I'm going for a lie down quick.

Barney
This is my last post on the subject.You say that Iceman wouldn't have won as long as it had an hole in it's arse,It was giving 5lb all round and js got touched off,Get real chap.I will continue to peddle my trash,Being as that is what you think it to be.And i may go in more depth and to be quite honest i dt give a tom tit what you think,Because you will never change,You ought to go on countdown Conundrum man.

T.C
Hopefully in the coming months i can give more positive vibes rather than the negative ones.