Mr Holland - has done my bank - no good at all -

He might have picked another day to catch "secunditus" !!!

Epi
Another pice of the jigsaw
"the class in which a horse runs is not the same as it competes"

1. how did Prominent king fair in the erin the year previous to winning

2.How many times did relkeel win the bula.

3.how many times had Halmehera won the same race up to yesterday.

4.How many times has best mate won the king george

Would you say they had shown form in this class or even in these races.And it goes on,Look at all the possibilities and of course consistent form + ability + capability + probability + hard work = winners.

Epi
Again i must re-iterate this is my interpretation but is based on what i have seen with my own eyes through the writings and the form books,When a goody comes along i will put it up can't be fairer than that.

epi.
my lists are not vdw orientated but vdw did talk about lists that is why im asking on here,usually on my list are well handicapped horses who have not had their ideal conditions,it was on the genaral thread,didnt have enough time to keep up with it really,probably had about 5 runs out of all of them and it had a 14/1-9/1 winner and a 13/2 winner,isnt it also finding a winner in a race not a winner of a race,which i think vdw said?
why not lists?,please explain?

Investor: I only know the answer to number 3, perhaps you can fill me in on the others. About number 3; as far as I recall you didn't mention Halmahera in your summing up of the race yet you now say this is a double meaning in the idea of the consistency rating, how many other ways does the consistency rating work and what chance is there that a horse will be indicated by all (consistency) ratings simultaneously and still available at a sensible price (remember that even about what was described as a certainty, better than evens was specified in the VDW literature).

Greg: Lists are fine, I just dont see the necessity and I dont want to trawl through the runners' index or rely on a remind service.

Epi
Mephisto is fairly recent won at 6/1

Relkeel 3 times

Best mate 2

Halmahera 2

Prominent king 4th carrying 11.11

I didn't mention Halmahera because i didn't play in the race but the form was there to be seen.

investor,
this is not a pop in any way,but why didnt you bet in that race if the form was there to be seen?

quote:

---

Originally posted by epiglotis:
Millenary won it's race before last yet didn't win it's last race despite a drop in class according to the VDW concept of class. The conspicuous difference between those races was that the second was over two furlongs further, as today's race was yet another two furlongs further and equivalent "class" to the previous race I would be interested in hearing how Millenary could have been a "VDW" selection, ie no element of a gamble.

---

Epi
Didn't have a bet in the race, but there was another conspicuous difference.
Millenary's win in his penultimate race came 15 days after he had had a warm up race (his seasonal debut). He was then off for 3 months until he reappeared 23 days ago. Draw your own conclusions.

Barney
I would be interested to know how you considered Attraction a good thing for the Guineas when even her trainer didn't know if she would stay the extra 2f?

Johnd: Was Millenary the only horse in the race with such a pattern and if not how many others shared it? (If you didn't investigate this I'll look tomorrow.)

Thank you to everyone for the contributions.

This evening's conclusions:

VDW appears complex and mysterious to me as someone who hasn't studied it in depth.

VDW ideas about picking the class races seems to be a good enough way of narrowing the selection base (my interpretation, that is).

The idea, that class of previous races is important, ties in, I feel, with JIB's ideas on trainer strategy; for it is the trainer who made the race entries in the first place.
Hopefully, these entries were part of a plan based on expectations.

In a way, this leads on to lists.
On another thread (under tipsters) I have listed some free selections published in the RP. These are by a pro-tipster who goes on the value of race entries made by trainers that he respects as good placers of runners.

I agree that checking lists daily is a bit of a chore, but we can get free help by e-mail if necessary.

To save a lot of time and work, what's wrong with using the top three in the betbetter ratings on the selected races?

In many cases there is an overlap with the top three in the betting, so we can use Boozer's idea and try pinpoint one from three.

Check back and you'll see results have been quite good.

If we really cannot narrow down to one selection, perhaps it would be worth dutching two or even three?

One final test to use on our shortlist could be to note the three highest "best RPRs".

For instance, today, we had
Tillerman 135 unplaced
Court Masterpiece 131 placed
Pastoral Pursuits 130 won.

Millenary 131 won d/h
Dancing Bay 132
High Accolade 136.

OK, that's plenty to be going on with!

Johnd,

That was for Garstonf, and related to one of the problems that he is having, the reply was relative to his problem, and nowhere did I state it was good thing.

If I remember correctly my evaluation highlighted Red Bloom as the likely winner with Sundrop as a danger, but there is a lot of water under the bridge since then.
Fair play to you if you have a look though and find something of worth.

seanrua - re Dutching - touchy subject on this thread !

We are assured by no less an Authority - than barmy himself - that YDW only later in his writings - advocated Dutching because no one understood - what he was "On About" - in the first place !!

greg
fair question,Iwas too busy looking at the other races and because the field was so big i didn't get round to it or couldn't be bothered ( more fool me ) after racing i look through the racing post and look at certain things or even after the race it wasn't until it was mentioned on the t.v that halmahera had won for the third time that i looked at the race and gave myself a severe telling off.Iv'e missed them before and i'll miss them again.I'm still not convinced that millenary should have been left but that's gone now.

Seanrua
it's simple really mate if nothing stands out we don't bet end of story otherwise your gambling aren't you.There are of course times when 2 will fi the bill then fair enough we dutch but otherwise it's that famous word TEMPEREMENT.

Greg
To add insult to injury Halmahera was 2nd top ability rated in the field and was coming out of the 2nd highest race class lto.

Interesting, Investor.

I suppose this means that there is seldom a VDW bet.

Would you say that one bet a month would be the norm?

Seanrua
Not from the way i see it,There were some decent bets over the months North Light (Derby) Raccoon,Chorist,Ouija board, Attraction,Sendintank,Mephisto,Satchem,Gulf,Lochbuie,Top Dirham,Barolo.And there have been losers the last one being that o,brien thing in ireland on sunday,Having said that the horse that beat it had done so before,But everything looked good for that race,Christ knows why they blew Kinane out in favour of that dick.

Wrong way round -

Kinane - blew - "that dick" - O'Brien out !!

He sussed that he was a "Prat" who has being living of the Connections that his Father Built up !!

The - other "Prat" - H.Cecil did exactly the same !!!

Owners - Eventualy - "Get the Message" tho !!!

D'yno - I have been looking at todays SPs and wondering - just why we "Bother" !!

8/1
5/1
14/1
12/1
20/1
15/2
25/1
4/1
9/4
8/1
15/2
16/1
20/1
40/1
8/11
3/1
20/1
9/1
4/5
5/1