Nice to see that certain ratings had the winner in the top three once again!

I think tomorrow it will be worth making our own simple totting up ratings:

3 for top
2 foe 2nd
1 for 3rd.

Today, that would have given

Distinction 12 points
Compton Bolter 10 points

The rest not within 5 of these.

Just in case anybody is interested in real-life racing, Distinction won and Compton came second.

I'm still waiting for some criticism - adverse or constructive, I don't care which.

Seanrua - think your post got lost under yet another VDW "spat" !

They may be entertaining (in small doses) - but when a member is trying to pursue a theme - they don't half get in the way !

Personaly I welcome your search for a decent set of ratings (or more) - VDW seemed to set store by "Speed Ratings" - and if you could come up with a decent source - that would be helpful ( to me at least ) !

tc

JIB -

Get well soon !

Hi Tuppenycat,

The speed figures I use (and, apparently, they ARE flawed) are

Latest Topspeed in the Racing Post paper

and, free from the front page of bestofthebets.
the "Turf Speed figures" (in the side column on left of page.

It seems that selecting the right race is a big part of the battle for success.

As for spats, don't be worrying; I've kids and grandkids of my own; I've spent years in bookies' shops (asylums), been in riots, etc etc, and still aim to crack this game!

Shit is just par for the course.

Barney,
Interesting comments regarding Red Fort.I also viewed him as a good thing,but did my money.

This is an aspect of vdw that I have had problems with,eg a good thing but not at the odds,this occurred in some of vdw's examples.Lee also mentioned it in regard to Kalaman.

However he also stated that odds on shots could be good things,I have an idea but the odds on shots really throw me.

Pipedreamer
Red Fort's defeat had nothing to do with his price!
An improving horse, whose previous form was a close up run in a 93k race, he is off for 2 months, and then reappears in an 11k conditions race.WHY???????
If you still doubt it, check out the way he was ridden today as opposed to his 4 previous good runs this season.
VDW advised us to treat these races with caution, and for a very good reason. Might I also suggest that you apply similar caution to Barney's edicts?

Red Fort -

TV Commentary -

Went to Post - Like a Woman in a tight skirt !!!

Barney put up a pre-race selection, I think that point shouldn't be overlooked and should be appreciated.
There's a tendency to decide after the race and more or less by the result whether or not a selection that had been posted was a genuine "VDW" selection, this is really quite unproductive. One needs to be able to say before the off which horses are VDW selections as the reality might be that such selections only win, for example, 30% of the time. There also need to actually be some genuine VDW selections, I would say three a week is a reasonable minimum number of bets until the mean price and strike rate are established.

Headmaster

Try these two:

Grey Swallow
Quiff

epi,

dont trouble yourself with minor Facts, people dont want to see, alchoholics can only get better when they admit they have a problem, I have yet to meet any in horse racing who have a problem. Everyone is absolutely ****ing brilliant at it but they want to get a bit better, mostly grudgingly kicking and screaming. then what thanks do you get? IWILL TELL YOU, SWEET **** ALL. THIS I KNOW TO BE TRUE.

Investor who has at least jumped the first couple of fences totally misses the point by his bloody minded ness, I said that Iceman would not be a VDW selection as long as he had a hole in arse, but he twists it and turns it to fit his own thoughts on what was written until he convinces himself that I said the horse could not win. If that can happen over one small comment just imagine the complexity of sorting out the plethora of VDW's writings. That is why its important to get the books and the form books and form "ONES OWN VIEW" only then will words of advice3 indeed the entirety of the thread will mean anything, even then its possible that you will see what you want to see, as I have, as investor has, as Mtoto has, as JOhnd has, as fulham has, note they are all different. as will be yours.

If you think I will post three evaluations a week so you can evaluate their mean strike rate and price you are living in cloud cuckoo land. There are any number of know all on here and they are ****ing about with this and that, nobody is laying out the race's as vdw instructed and evaluating the probables and any other contenders, people are too lazy they want "ratings" to do the work on their behalf. VDW stated that success does not come from this quater and hes absolutly ****ing right. Nothing has changed. In fact more and more of the up and coming trainers are having to use his blueprints for winners otherwise they dont get em in when they want, and the old stalwarts have been doing it for years and will carry on so, How do they get to the top? luck?

if there are a number of analysis with plenty of contribution FROM ALL INTERSTED PARTIES i will of course join in but all this ****ing about with massey and speed figures etc, is not worth a wank as far VDW's winner finding techniques are concerned.

not my type,

regal kingsize and a parting down the middle, and good stout brogues, unless its raining.

I don't think anybody will spell it all out.Why should they,it took me a lot of time and work,and still does,and mistakes are still made.vdw did state that there were numerous ways of arriving at the same selection,which obviously is true.I have good friends who know nothing of vdw,and often times our selections are the same,but derived from a different way of addressing a race.

A lot of water has passed under the bridge,since this thread started,and since vdw started writing.I feel at this stage putting up post race examples is of absolutely no benefit to anyone.Why,because there is a danger of looking at things from the wrong starting point.I have been guilty in the past of doing just that,but in the past I felt it may have been beneficial to others,but I know this was not the case.

How many people would have selected Prominent King,pre race.I admit I struggled with it,for a long time.

Today if anybody is interested,I shall be backing Bonecrusher,as a vdw selection.Win or lose,it is one I consider to be a good wager.However I will not be anymore specific than that,the FORM is there for all to see.

Well, like I said last night, following yet another winner in the top three, we'll carry on with this messing about with ratings (all costing about a tenner a week inc RP, Gummy sub, BT phone line, electricity, internet and computer but not my Labor).

Here we go:

Race is the 315 Doncaster St Leger £240K A1.
Any VDW objections?

RP Betting Forecast

Rule of Law 2/1 3ptd
Quiff 3/1 2 pts
Let the Lion Roar 5/1 1 pt

Alright, VDW says first six; I'm doing first 3.

OR
ROL 120 3pts
Q 119 2pts
Lion 118 1pt


Best RPR
Q 139 3pts
ROL 136 2pts
Lion 135 1pt

Earnings/race (not strictly VDW but similar idea)
ROL 3pts
Quiff 2pts
Lion 1pt

Latest Topspeed
Mikado 111 3pts
Quiff 110 2 pts
Maraahel 1pt

Turf Speed figs
Maraahel 3pts
Mikado 2pts
Quiff 1pt

Massey (aaagh!)
Maraahel 3pts
ROL 2pts
Mikado 1pt

Draw?
Lion 3pts
Quiff 2pts
Rule 1pt

Right, that will do. You can work out "consistency" yourselves, bc I can't.

So, the totals are:

Dead-heat

Quiff 14 points
Rule of Law 14 points
Let the Lion Roar 7 points

There you go! No opinion of mine is involved at all.
If dutching isn't allowed, I guess it's no bet with this little method.

I'll let betbetter be the tie-breaker if Rico puts up the figures.

Pipedreamer: thanks, I'm certainly not asking you to spell it out, after all VDW already did that didn't he(?) I'll keep track of these for the moment but I need to know the date, time and meeting, just the horse's name isn't much use. Johnd: the same applies to your Grey Swallow, unless I'm contradicted I'll take the liberty of assuming that "Quiff" refers to the race discussed by Seanrua.

epi - no problem in finding that - just go to R.Post site and search for the horse - LHS - then click on entries on the top bar

Epi

Epi Doncaster 2.05

2.05 Doncaster

VDW or no - this looks a tough one !

However - Fallon is a very rare booking for Vaughan - but the results are good - 3 from 3 - also Stoute has a runner but has let Fallon take the other ride !

Mind you that may simply be because Fallon can't make the weight.


Colisay - dutched with Roehampton ( dropped into a handicap for the first time)

Epi

I take your point, but I assumed anyone with an interest would have known where those 2 are running.
Briefly, Quiff is consistent,the only gp1 winner in the field, (Only a fillies race, but won it very well) is coming from the highest lto class apart from Tycoon, beaten 44l, and the c/d & going shouldn't be a problem.
Grey Swallow also has a lot in his favour, but the trainer says in the RP this morning that his main target is the Arc in 3 weeks time.
No element of gamble, so not a bet.

Barney,

I found your post interesting, but strange. Strange because I can't quite see why you think folk asking about the use of ratings want the ratings to do the work for them.

Yes, VDW said ratings are not the be all of the methods. However he did take the time and trouble to formulate his own, why if he didn't think they would serve a purpose? In SIAO, he explained how to use the rating and gave reasons why horses were rejected, on more than one occasion it was because the RATINGS didn't confirm the basic findings. They are not the be all, but they are a major factor in the methods. I can see no way there can be any dispute about that fact.

You say Investor is bloody minded, but that cuts both ways. YOU don't rate or use s/f, fair enough. To say they have nothing to do with VDW is pure bloody mindedness. They have nothing to do with it in YOUR opinion. VDW used them in MANY ways for many things. To say different is as perverse as JIB trying to say consistency is not an important factor. I can understand his thinking re Group races, but how does he explain the amount of consistent horses that win the big handicaps? Again consistency is just one factor and must be confirmed using the other factors. Ratings are one of those factors.

Another factor that has been raised on this thread recently is the need to be proven over the distance. Many VDW selections had NOT been distance winners, so where does this thinking come from? Many are saying trainers intentions should be studied. If we think enough of the intention, why don't we trust his knowledge about the distance? Why would he enter and train a horse for a particular race if he wasn't as sure as he can be about the distance? In saying this it is the main reason I stick to the top class races.

In the big one today 4 of the 8 runners haven't won at the distance. The trainers must be reasonably happy they will/can perform at the distance, and I'm sure they will all be trying to win when they enter the stalls. (apart from the pacemaker) I can't have Doyen at the price. I have Azamour a very close 2nd on the ratings and he is my selection.

Be Lucky