Saturday, October 9.

The VDW Race of the Day.

340 York, £19.5K, C1 hcp, 6f.

A terrible betting medium in my opinion, but we'll press on:

My idea of the VDW selection is

Jonny Ebeneezer.



My own bets in this big field sprint would be

PIC UP STICKS EW
Zilch ew
Bonus ew or the three dutched.

Sean
Sorry just seen your post re Racecourses
I started backing dropped in class horses in 1974
I got the idea from a book I read
The author used racecourse groups to signify a drop in class
After I had mapped out a full flat season form book with the Lto racourse written over the top of the first 6 in the betting
It became apparent that prizemoney was the most influential factor

The wife and I mapped out a further 5 flat seasons form books with the value of the lto race over the first 6 in the betting

It was a good excersize and a big eye opener
All you have to do then is study the winners that get trapped
especially the races where there is only one horse in the first 6 in the betting, that is roughly 21/2 to 3 times the value of the rest of the first 6

Dont think Naashab was backable apart from Jockey booking not much to suggest the win yesterday
But
Why was he entered for the cambridgshire
could be any reason, some negative
Or he may have shown connections something to warrant a crack at the big one
Seems he must have shown hence Jockey booking and pick up a consolation
Strike while iron is hot and all that

The book I read was called horse sense
I think VDW must have read it as well

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Than you, Boozer. Looks like Prize Money did it again, with my attempt at a VDW selection winning comfotably at 13/2 ( Jonny Ebeneezer)!

This is the second Saturday, that's happened. My own bets were crap.

I'll put some details on the next post.

9 Oct, Result.

My "VDW" selection, Jonny Ebeneezer, wins at 13/2.

My actual bets in the race came nowhere.

Winner, JE : Top on Prize Money of those that has run in more valuable races: £130K.

Of this short list of valuable race runners, he was third top OR -

Talbot Avenue (2nd) 100 OR

Fantasy Believer (3rd) 98 OR

Pic up Sticks ( my selection, came nowhere) 97 OR

Jonny Ebeneezer Winner 96 OR.

A dutcher or exotic bettor, using these top- rated, would have had a field day!

RPR wasn't so good today, with JE being 3 points off the top.

I suppose you could have had the 2yo winner at york 2-05 as well
Well done with JE
and I'm not trying to butter you up or anything
theres some queer buggers on here

JIB/NFP,

The trouble is I can't see what that would prove. I'm happy with my way of selecting winners, I can only assume Guest feels the same. I'm not interested in who is the best, I'm only interested in how VDW worked. Even if sometime in the future I find I'm wrong I wouldn't just change the way I work now.

Guest could put up horses like St Andrews and I would still consider then non VDW horse, unless he could explain and show me an example. This is never going to happen on an open forum. Personally I don't think it could happen in private either but for very different reasons. Guest is the only one who has a grasp on VDW. Any other ideas must be wrong, I assume because Guest didn't think of them.

I don't have any real problem with that, except I feel he is leading some folk up the garden path. He has them reading things into form that just aren't true. The problem is when this is challenged he can always duck behind this ' VDW didn't read form like that' and point to an example where it looks as if it maybe the answer. These answers have always been found finding the easiest way to make the examples fit. For me the perfect example of this is the way he solves the Erin.

I fail to see how any of this disagreement can be used as an indication that VDW doesn't work. We both agree it works, we just disagree on how the finer points work. We both use class and form as the lynch pin. I think Guest has decided the c/rating were to help the novice, and are not an important part of the method. So after 35 years I'm still a novice so be it, I'm sticking to the consistent horse. The party line seems to be I won't change my mind, here is one example of me doing just that. There are folk on this board that know that is the truth.

Investor,

I just know I'm not going to get a straight answer but here goes. Why is that form a down turn for Petronisi but not Baronet? If P should have won shouldn't B finished 2nd? They ran to within a lb of the form in the 72 race, but it was B that had the advantage. B is a form horse, P is the horse on the downturn???
Just to clarify a point I'm happy that B is the selection for the Cambridgeshire as VDW said. I arrive at this answer without making one a non, out of form horse. This answer is found in exactly the same way as the answer to the Erin is found. Luck?

Be Lucky

Hi everyone, hope you are all having a gr8 weekend.

Any thoughts on the Group 1 race in France today. There is a link below where you will find the race in an excel spreadsheet format for the race in question, all thoughts would be welcome. Copy and paste the URL between the brackets into your browser. You can choose between opening or saving it to your hard drive.((http://members.tripod.com/example-races/9_10_2004_Longchamp_3-0.xls))

This message has been edited. Last edited by: raffingora,

Mtoto
it' not that you won't get a straight answer,It's the fact that you do not/cannot/Wont aceept how vdw used his ratings,End of story really.I have tried and you have said you don't understand what i'm going on about.You obviously make money at this game has you have proved in the past and fair play to you.But we look at vdw from different angles.Who is right,We'll never really know but i am happy with the conclusions i have come to in respect of the vdw material.Oh and i also make it pay. Good luck.

Mtoto,

Given that you work on speed ratings, am I to assume that Baronet is your selection for the 78 Cambridgeshire because he is judged to have the CAREER best SF of the field ?

When comparing the speed figures of `B` and Petronisi in the 78 season I note Baronet comes out on top ( 95 v 90 ).

Back to VDW and both horses' IN FORMNESS for the Cambridgeshire. The question you ask Investor is a very good one and such a question cetainly makes one wonder how VDW evaluated form !

What are my thoughts ?

When comparing the achievements of the 2 horses in that season prior to the Cambridgeshire Petronisi having won 4 times in class' 25, 60, 72 and 28 compared to `B` one win in class 38 then many would see Petronisi as the better horse.

Given that `P` had beaten Baronet in several of the winning races, would appear to add more weight to that argument.

VDW however didn't make things easy !

Surely a horse in form with a higher ability rating than one lower down and receiving weight should come out on top shouldn't it ???

And if the answer is yes then can Petronisi having failed ( but then awarded the race ) in the scenario described above when dropped in class and now asked to go up significantly in class be considered a form horse for the race ??

These are the questions I am presently asking myself !!

Hope I've made sense.

Determined,

The points you put over are fair enough, but for me they lack the logic I would expect from VDW,

As you say Petronisi is the class horse of these two, based on the a/rating you use. He is classed as a non form, out of form horse for the Cambridgeshire. This seems to be based on the fact he won a class 72 and then failed in a class 29.

Baronet on the other hand is a form horse for the Cambridgeshire although he also failed in the class 29. He had won a class 38 in between this run and the one in the same 72 that Petronisi won.

This for me is where the logic flys out the window. What is the point of an a/rating? To me it is to judge who is the best horse. Now we are saying the best horse (of the two) is out of form because he failed to win a class 29 race. I suppose I can see that. However we are now taking a lower ranked horse ability wise, who had also failed when dropped to this class 29 race. He had just won a class 38, so he was also being dropped in class. If P is on the down turn, so is B, as B was on slightly better terms than in the 72 race. So we are taking the weaker horse into a stronger race. Is this logical, why bother with this a/rating if you don't believe it points to the best/better horses?

When this lack of logic is challenged the stock answer is VDW didn't look at form like that. I just find it strange that in most cases of non logical form reading it is designed to keep the VDW selection from being eliminated, or to make it work for the selection Again I say the Erin is a classic example of this.

I'm not saying there is anything wrong with the VDW logic, it's the way the examples are solved that's the trouble.

You are very nearly correct about the s/f for the Cambridgeshire, but looking at the figures from the previous year helped to confirm my thinking.

Be Lucky

Mtoto - Some points for everyone to take on board. Your speed figure attained in the best class idea does not solve all the VDW examples, not even close to them all. I've been there on that idea, got the t-shirt, etc. I have highlighted examples that don't fit your way on this very forum amongst others. Love From Verona springs to mind from the early examples.

It was VDW who said that the question of form was causing readers most problems. VDw said that, not me. For what it's worth I agree with him. He clearly said that the Roushayd article was a lesson in form evaluation and so it was.

To me there is every logic to the idea that Baronet giving weight to a higher rated form horse AND going close, suggests Baronet not only has good form, it's ability rating is due for a change. We all know that Baronet was just pipped the year before, but that has no bearing on the class and form he was showing just prior to the 78 running.

It's funny though, when you look through the form of VDWs selections, how so many show up like Baronets and likewise in the negative for the discarded ones. BL can't hold off a horse with not only a lower ability rating, but also coming from a long lay off and from a lower class race than both BLs recent victories.

Even stranger is Prominent King giving lumps of weight to Drumgora, dropped from a higher class race than even the Erin Foods.

I've said before, I do use speed figures in various ways and they are very useful tools, but speed is not form, whatever the class it was attained in. It's the quality of opposition in a race that sets the benchmark for the form of it.

Guest,

As you say Love From Verona doesn't work my way. Can you make it the class form horse, I don't think so. I have also said Son Of Love doesn't work my way, again can you make him the class form horse? Using this worthless a/rating. I just know you will say a horse doesn't have to be top rated to be a bet. I come up with the selections from the examples as the top rated in most cases. Often when you are saying he must have taken the 2/3/4 top rated.

You say what Baronet did in the race last year has no bearing on this years race. Are we supposed to forget all his good runs have been on stiff tracks? His very best have been on stiff tracks in big fields. Perhaps this is what was meant about form giving problems?

You believe what you like about Sea Pigeon. He was the class horse in that race, he runs well fresh and BL stood no chance of beating him. This is based on facts from the form book not based on that a/rating.

I have never said speed is form. I firmly believe speed reflects form there is a difference. I also use the quality of the opposition as a guide. You say you have tried the speed angle and have the tee shirt. I can only say you have the wrong tee shirt or perhaps it's on back to front.

I concede you are right I'm wrong. Happy now?

Mtoto / Guest,

When re reading the early letters in The Golden Years I note speed / time is mentioned several times before the word abilty comes into VDW's writings.

I'm therefore comfortable in accepting that speed has a real part to play but the question for me is at what stage.

I'm also reasonable sure that Lee said sometime ago that he cross checked all his probable bets with speed ratings.

Mtoto suggests that many of the VDW selections can be found using speed figures his way and I am certainly not going to doubt what he says.

Guest, on the other hand names several of the selections which cannot be found this way and suggests class and form are the vital factors.

For me, the jury is out at this stage and I will keep an open book.

*** back to the 78 Cambridgeshire.

PETRONISI - Mtoto, using the ability rating as a guide, would it be fair to say that `P` was a better horse on 28-09-78 then he was on 22-08-78.

If the answer is yes then perhaps `P` should have been winning the Ascot race outright and not in the stewards room ? Using weight as another guide, I note his 3 wins prior to Ascot were with 8-05, 8-03 and 8-01.

Yes he carried 9-07 at Ascot but failed.

Now asked to carry 8-09 in class £18053. Too much to ask ??

BARONET - if my understanding of VDW is anywhere near the mark ( doubtful, I know )didn't he ask us to look how trainers place their horses with a view to bringing them to a peak.

Two areas he suggested were weight and class of opposition. When looking at Baronet with those 2 factors in mind I believe `B` two runs prior to the Cambridgeshire were good runs.

Add to that he was suited to stiff, straight uphill courses in big fields ( usually strong gallop ) which he hadn't encountered in his runs since the Hunt Cup and for good measure he ran a big race in the event the previous year. All the hallmarks of one being laid out for the prize.

Cheers,

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Determined,

Mtoto - You continue to disagree with situations such as Sea Pigeon vs Beacon Light because you are not understanding the whole process of examining past runs, VDWs way that is. Yes, you're way would no doubt have found Sea Pigeon a bet that day, well done, but it goes against the process that VDW mapped out in the Roushayd article.

Let's try and break it into simple pieces then.

Do you argue with the fact that Beacon Light was dropping in race class from any of his last 3 runs?

Do you argue with the fact that the ability rating, which is only a guide, rated Beacon Light ahead?

Don't be fooled by Sea Pigeons Fall when contesting a class 350 Chase at Camden, his first run for over 7 months. We can only go on his previous runs which include 2 wins at class 41 and then 36. How do we compare these runs with Beacon Lights? Not on race class alone, nor ability ratings, but all these combined with FORM of the opposition.

I'll ask again, have you actually mapped out BL & SPs last 3 runs AS VDW DID IN THE ROUSHAYD ARTICLE???

Tuppenycat: we dont apear to have the Roushayd article on the New Information thread, can you help?

Sunday, October 10.

The VDW Race of the Day.

345 Goodwood, £13.2K, C1 Fillies stakes (hcp) 1m4f.

Yuk! 3yo fillies! Not my choice of betting medium.

I spent the grand total of 4.5 minutes on this one; it was a stand out:

VDW Selection: LIGHT WIND.

Determined,

I suppose using the a/rating it would be fair to think Petronisi was a better horse on the 28th. By the same token you would have to say Baronet was also a better horse on the 28th than the last time they meet.

In reality they were both very nearly the same as when they meet on the 22nd, within a lb. Looking at the Ascot race many would have said, (and here I mean VDW fans) the rise in actual weight would have been very much against P. They then turn round and say the performance was a down turn?? All I'm saying if it was a down turn for one , it is also a down turn for both. You then ask me to believe VDW would have taken the lower class horse in a higher class race.

The fact that he did asks the question, was he using this a/rating? If he wasn't then a lot of ideas on how he reads form are out the window, for some. As far as I can see the a/rating is a snap shot of the over all ability of the horse. The consistent form is to show it's well being at the time of the race. Two seperate factors. both needed, not necessary that they happen at the same time, a bonus if the do.

Guest,

I find I have mislaid the form book for the relevant season, but here goes........

Beacon Light runs in a 85 class handicap at SANDOWN, finishes beaten 14 lenghts in 6th place. Every chance 2nd last weakened approaching last.

Next race Beacon Light wins a 74 class race on the 26/12/78. This is a 3 horse race run in a fair but not spectacular time. Only 2 finish the runner up being Dramatist, beaten 2 lenghts receiving 3 lb. This is the most valuable he has won to date. If you want to use collateral form this is a good run based on Dramatist. The question has to be would D run to his best in a tactical race like this? Even if it is I stilll have Sea Pigeon as a better horse than D.

He then runs and wins a 44 at Winsdor returning a slightly better s/f. He beats the 8 year old Alverton by 2 lenghts giving him 6lbs. Alverton didn't win in the previous season although he did run in the Imperial cup beaten 8 lenghts+

So all in all apart from the clever placing on Boxing day (74 win) over all form and class not really up to much. In the this season his best run before this had been in a in a class 42 at Newbury and I would count this as his best form. He had run in the Champoin Hurdle in the prevoius season on GOING and COURSE that didn't suit and Sea Pigeon finshed in front of him Sea Pigeon held every chance at the last Beacon LIght weakened 2 out.

Sea Pigeon,

Fell in his first race of season. Have no comments on race so will count it as a non run, as per VDW instructions

4th in the Champion hurdle, as already mentioned every chance coming to the last. Beaten 8 lenghts by the likes of Night Nurse Monksfield and Dramatist.

Liverpool a 41 class handicap. Wins carrying 12st 6lbs giving 20 lbs to the field in a very fast time

Ayr Scottish Champion Hurdle class 36?? wins beating Birds Nest receiving 10 lbs

Good as the Liverpool win is I don't think it was SP's best form I would point at the 41 Handicap at Haydock. Ok, this is only handicap form but he had shown he could mix with the big boys a Cheltenham. He had a far better chance of handling Sandown than BL. He was getting weight and he has the tactical speed. Best of all he is my top rated going into the race, during the race, and after the race. I still have BL as running possibly the race of his life, but as VDW said he had a hard race.

Be Lucky

October 10, Result.

My VDW selection, Light Wind, unplaced in third.

Winner was NUZOOA, 6/1, the other horse which had run in high prize money races.

Winner was 2nd top OR, 90.

My selection, LW, was OR 86.

LW was top bestRPR, 109, while N was RPR 105.

The winner, N, was tipped only by Topspeed.

Guest 12.49am
Thankyou Guest,
Looking forward to having a real good look at your post later on, you are indeed a kind chap.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

Has anybody who has looked,found the Swiss Maid example to be straightforward,I am having a problem dismissing the credentials of Cistus in the race,any ideas