Mtoto
Thank you for that

I think you are right in your first statement
I also think F Chester was right
Perhaps VDW Didnt understand what F Chester Meant (unlikely)
Or he Was too arrogant to recognise and concede a valid point which was different from his own

Boozer,

That of course is a possibility, some people can be very arrogant, and even bloody minded, or so I'm told!

However, doesn't The Prince show it is a least something that should always be remembered. Did it's last few wins reflect it's true ability, the ability that was there in the record book for all to see?

Be Lucky

Mtoto
relative to the rest of th field on the day,No it didn't,And good for you if you backed it.

Thank you for the further information, Mtoto.

I'd have to say that Chester was more on the ball than the man with the double Dutch non-Dutch name there, imo.

Maybe, it'd the language barrier or something, but VDW clearly confused ACHIEVEMENT with ABILITY.

99.999% of people would probably agree that C Clay/ M Ali's achievements can never be taken away from him, but they would also agree that the same is NOT true of his ability.

He cannot do what he could. It's part of the aging process.

VDWs statement about the permanency of ability is unthought, arrogant nonsense.

Even 10secs thought about the matter would start musing on the ravages of disease and injury.

Jib
That is a mis conception,How can an horses ability fade in the way that vdw gauges it.Don't forget that it is based on wins.So it can win one race then go through the rest of it's carreer and never win again.But the rating will still stay the same,It is FORM that goes up and down not the ability of the horse,Some horses rise gently others sharply but the rating never goes backwards does it.

Investor: exactly, the ability rating is rubbish.

Jib
Just as an example there is a horse running today at leicester,Marabar.It last won 7 races ago and has an ab rating of 29.This hasn't changed from that win 7 races ago,It's the form that has declined not the ability of the horse.This is no different to the likes of Roushayd which lost 3 races prior to the ld newton,But that didn't change it's ability.You are doing exactly the same as F.Chester did and confusing it with form.Which of course does fluctuate.

Epi
I agree it is rubbish,But only if the horse is out of form.That is the big stumbling block.

And a horse is bound to be out of form once it's ability fades.

Epi
LOL

As has been suggested, ability has to fade with age, but the "ability rating" it has already achieved will never fade, it can only fluctuate during a horses career, from a small number at an early age to a larger one when at it's peak.

I think I understand where VDW was coming from with his ability comment. I think in 'athlete' terms: In 1972 lasse Virin won the Olympic 5,000m and 10,000m gold medals. During the four intervening years, the best he could do was a European 10,000m bronze. He was repeatedly beaten by our own Brendon Foster (now known as the commentating 'nose'). But in 1976, Virin repeated the feat of 4 years earlier bagging 2 more golds.

Now then, athletes are not like horses. They do not hold themselves back to obtain a favourable OR!!! Believe me, they want to win EVERY race they enter. When he lost race after race, it was not part of some long term master plan. Injury and loss of form/motivation during those 4 years perhaps, but his ability was still there (provided he prepared himself correctly of course - which he did in 1976).

Some horses may become injured. Some peak and then lose form for a while. But what I think VDW said was true (providing the trainer ensures the horse is prepared properly again when the horse is suitably recovered).

Well that's how I think about it anyway... food for thought?!

BlackCat

JIB,

I don't for one moment think VDW wasn't aware ability does fade with age. I think he is saying always remember what has been achieved in the past. He was answering the question why take all the achievements in to account rather than just the recent ones.

He did qualify this by saying the animal had to also have consistent form at the time. Using The Prince as an example, why just take his recent wins as the level of his ability.

You go to your son's sports day to run in the fathers race, you have a look through the recent form of the other runners. One chap has won a couple of small races, you are in with a chance. The bloke turns up and he is Lindford Christie, ok an old Lindford, but he has been in training and is fit. What do you think of your chances now? Fanciful I know but isn't this what happened in the The Prince's race?

Investor,

As a boxer can't finish lower than second it is hard to equate to racing. I will ask how would you judge the best world champion, by the prize money won or by the opponents beaten?

Reading this passage was one of the reasons I can't see the logic in the a/rating. If the benchmark is what the horse has achieved why dilute that achievement by taking an average. Example, A horse wins a £20,000 race he when wins a £7,000 prep race his a/rating has dropped from 200 to 140?? Horse B in the same race has only won 1 race a £15,000 = 150. How/why is he the better horse? How does this rating judge a horses class, and/or it's will to win, as they have both raced 6 times? Ok the a/rating is only a guide why not use a better guide in the first place?

I couldn't say if I backed The Prince. However if you study that race, the Erin, and a couple more of the early examples you can make up your own mind.

Be Lucky

Re ability; the confusion may arise because VDW used ability as a definition of class, rather than its more common usage.
Take Astrac, who ran last week with an a/r of 81, yet at the end of the '95 season had an a/r of 134.
No one could pretend that he currently has the ability to win a Wokingham whatever the circumstances.
Equally no one can say that he hasn't won one, no matter what his form since.

Mtoto
This is why we have to study the form of all concerned.O.kThe ability rating is a guide.But is a good way of Equating the merits of each horse.When vdw did the roushayd evaluation He was showing us this.He said the Roushayd had shown improvement through s/f we are all quite aware of that fact now,But that wasn't the only reason and it is the main reason that needs to be found.He was going into the old newton cup with far better credentials than any other horse in the race.

Result, Mon, Oct 11.

VDW selection, Carte Diamond, third at 9/4f.

Winner, Massif Centrale, [28/1].

Winner was joint third top OR (96) with Carte Diamond.

Winner was also co-third top Best RPR.

Both had run in high value races; infact, lto, in a £17.4K race, CD was 2nd and MC was 5th,
" weakened over a furlong out" OR 98..

That distance was 1m 6f; today's was 1m4f.

CD had £16.4K win prize money, with 2 wins from 3 starts.
MC had £5.8K win prize money, with 1 win from 6 starts.

I cannot accept the misuse of the word, " ability".

OK, the words " gay", "cool", " stoned" all have different meanings nowadays, from what they had when I went to school, but anyone attempting to explain a complex subject must use clear, precise language, with terms meaning what they say.

If it is felt necessary to invent " nu-speke", alright, tell us what the fk it means and that's fine. We cam live with that.

I'm starting to feel that this dude, VDW, was some kind of cross between D.Coleman and Professor Stanley Unwin, with minor parts played by Harry Worth, Eric Sykes, Norman Wisdom and Frank Spencer.

"Oooh, no missus,", "Titter ye not,"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Can anyone tell me if the 2 sets of ratings in The Old Feller illustration are VDW’s ratings or ratings from a news or sports paper.