Guest,

If the OH was anything less than scrupulouly dedicated can you imagine the screaming that for example Ladbrokes would put up after a couple of heavy hits?

It may be an opinion, but as the vast majority of those directly involved are 99% of the time happy with the system then I think we can say that it is finely tuned to perfection.

As you say there are dozens of private handicaps, though the majority dont actually rate the horse outside of racing as the OR does. I often wonder if VDWology was not initiated as a poor mans response to Timeform.

Boozer,

It would appear that you haven't left the starting blocks yet. email me, if you require some more.

JIB,

Do you think that those responsible for producing the most commmon commercial form ratings spend less time, or have less ability than the Official Handicapper?

Mtoto
Your getting flustered,Don't forget that Petronisi was awarded the race having been beaten by 0.75 of a length in receipt of 7lb to baronet Having been dropped from class 73 do you not feel that somehow vdw may have seen this has a downturn.Especially with Baronet now being on much better terms.

Boozer
Your all wind and piss mate,get your selections up.It's not about me being cocky.Your the first one to jump on the bandwagon yet you won't give a selection,Frightened of making a fool of yourself.

Boozer,

The quote was from a well respected poster who I sincerly hope will not be offended by me quoting him.

Investor
What Bandwagon??

Don't know how this will come out

Price* Horse...............ability.. Con
7.........Petronisi..........39.........9
8....Town and Country........60........5/4?
9.........Dasman.............15.........10
10........Baronet............17..........7
10......Colonel Parker.......16.........27
11.......Evesboy.............26..........6
12....Claudio Nicolal........40.........10
12 ......Rhineland...........36..........6

* = Forecast Price

Be Lucky

Investor
I am losing interest in horse racing
I no longer need to back horses
I do other things now
I see most of your approach
I did the same when you were about 10 years old
So I wouldnt challenge anything you are doing cos I know the stenght of it
Tis a pity your are such a silly bugger
And you have had too much to drink

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Lee
I havent got your email address
Cos I am a part timer
Boozer143@hotmail.com

Investor,

Much better terms? 2lbs to reverse a 1.5 length beating. Yes, Petronisi was dropped from a 72, so was Baronet and P still finished in front of B. I still don't quite understand the reasoning about the drop in class. You say it as if they had to be dropped to win, P had just won the 72 he didn't have to be dropped to win, he had just won. If you were saying Baronet had to be dropped to win I could understand that. He was beaten again, and then going up!

Also when you think up your answer please remember VDW didn't think a 7lbs turn around would reverse a head beating in another example. So it doesn't look as if he works to the usual thinking on weight.

Be Lucky

lee, guest,mtoto,investor, thanks for your replies everyone,..using the roushayd example...van der wheil mentioned ibn bey as a possible spanner in the works..was this the key race for evaluating roushayd even though he did not record best speed figure?.. van der wheil also stated he gave two versions of this method any thoughts

Lee,

Excepting Timeform, they dont inspire confidence.

Apparently there are 8 handicappers employed by the BHB, so certainly in man-hours it seems a more professional set-up than most of the others.

I don't know how I get into these arguments sometimes, Mtoto or why I bother 'cos I know you well enough now to see that whatever logic is put forward, you won't have it unless you agree.

VDW used form lines in a different way to the majority because the majority are far too influenced by what their eyes tell them about a race rather than what the form book says. He was far more interested in the class and form of horses in a finish than the visual aspect or how highly someone rated them from a handicapping point of view.

The only time we should question the validity of a race value is when the conditions of that race restrict the entrants. That is why the 2yo sales races are treated with a pinch of salt or a particularly valuable 0-80 is considered carefully when measure up against a same value 0-100. That's just common sense. But more the point is the class and form of the eventual principles in those races. Between the ability rating, race class rating and past form there is enough info to paint a useful numerical picture.

Just how do YOU weigh up the strength of a previous performance?

The recent debate about ORs has germinated a little idea that I shall try to look into. In the Pegwell Bay story we see a horse put up 10lbs after a win.

Now I think thats usually the max the OH will clobber an animal after only one race. But what has he seen that makes him take the biggest stick in his armoury out? I wonder if 10lb risers are worth following nto?

Guest,

That's the sad part. I have explained exactly how I judge a previous race. You seem to have read it, rejected it, forgotten it.

You said you couldn't make it work so it didn't work. If someone explained something to me I would take it apart piece by piece before I said that doesn't work. Probably even go back to it several times just to make sure it didn't work.

You get into these situations because you are so sure no one else could come up with anything to challenge you. You find a nice winner that's VDW working. I find one using the same principals, and it's not VDW.

I don't know if there is only one true answer to working VDW. If we both use class and form, throw in a lot of temperament why isn't that VDW? I posted a pre race winner and you came back and said that wasn't VDW. Not, I don't think that was VDW. I was wrong and you were right simple as that. On that day I decided to take VDW apart and find out how it really worked, not how I thought it worked. You said PK was out of form, non form horse what ever. I couldn't see that then and I still can't see it. So I sat down and found a way he could be well out of it on a set of rating. I found it. I also found many of the examples worked this way. I'm sorry but it is far more logical than making horses out of form, non form horse to make the methods work. I have waited 3 years for you to find an example that doesn't work, the only thing I ask is it works your way. When I say your way I mean you have taken the c/form horse not say this is the 2nd 3rd or 4th c/form horse taken in front of the 1st c/form horse. I don't think VDW worked like that he said it was going against the odds to go against the c/form horse. I think to be a c/form horse it has to have the form and class. You pointed out Canny Danny and a few others VDW said were c/form and he didn't back them. Did he back against them though that is the acid test?

Be Lucky

Prominent King

Mtoto, Guest,

After three years using this original VDW selection to perpetual discordance, surely what you need to do now, is to get each other to put up their selections before the off. It shouldnt take long to decide who is on the side of the angels!

JIB,

That will NEVER happen.

However, this will forever alienate me from the disciples - I think Mtoto is right, sorry Mtoto I just gave you one hell of an anchor.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Nofinepix,

NFP,

I fear you are correct.

Which is a great pity because after so much work and study on both parts they only manage to create doubt not only to us third parties but, even if they wont admit it publicly, also it must also affect them as they each know the other has invested as much effort as themselves.

Mtoto
I suppose it all boils down to interpretation,Yo cannot accept what i say,And i'm getting incredibly frustrated because you can't see my point.The way i see it,Petronisi should have won the race outright after being dropped in class.Imo vdw would have seen this has a downturn in form.Whereas Baronet was showing form in higher class.I have said on many occasions that you will not be swayed,And you never will be.

what about horses that finish 2nd to a horse that then goes up a lot in the handicap..are they of interest? particularly if they put daylight between themselves and the 3rd

Thanks Lee

Foe my sake i hope you are a bit slow or this could end up sending me to the mental hospital.