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Johnd,
There are more than you think who pay credence to VDW's instructions on placement of the horse. In your example race above, a thorough evaluation of the two horses Blue Crush and Great Fox may help you. Fiddle Me Blue although an attempt has been made by the trainer, It is mostly incorrect and will not be a form horse for many. I have seen it mentioned that the reason Azertyioup was left was was because of other horses in the race, this assumption is incorrect. The reason is to be found in the form of the horses past runs, particularly the last race. PKBOY |
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Johnd
With all due respect,Don't pump horses like Fiddle me Up down Seanrua's throat.Vdw nor anybody who uses his methods would touch this horse with a bargepole.Before you retort,There are over 150 examples.Will you guide me to one that finished 11th lto.Sorry to be blunt but if this horse wins b 15 lgs it is NOT a vdw bet. Seanrua There are 3 horse that need to be looked at in depth today,Alcazar/Winged D'argent and Sendintank. ![]() |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Hi Johnd
Great post. Totally agree. This is the area I will focus on next. ![]() Hi Mtoto That's good of you to help Seanrua like that. Nice one. ![]() Hi PKboy I looked at the runners after the race, and it seemed to me that it would have been a competitive affair. Hadn't looked at the race closely before as it didn't fit my basic 'quick read' criteria. Don't have time to go through properly as I'd like. Rarely time to apply the AR (mtoto should smile here). ![]() Anyway, I've been very naughty the past couple of days. Spent too much time here. Back to work and the old quiet cat for a while (you'll all be pleased to hear!) ![]() BlackCat __________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Hi Johnd
Had a quick look at Fiddle me Blue. Can't see it from a typical VDW perspective I'm afraid. It seems to have run in a very hot 6f race LTO weakening 1f out, btn 9L. This time in a much lower value and less competitive 5f race. It may be placed to win, but doesn't have the typical tell tale signs of a VDW selection IMO. Can I ask, is there anything apart from what I've outlined above that tells you why it's placed to win? __________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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B.c
Going back to the colin davey method,There are 2 horses that are very nearly qualifiers.Using the modification. Alcazar Supreme catch It will be interesting to see how they go. ![]() |
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Wed Nov 3.
Thanks to All for some generous help and offers of more help! I'm not in top form today, so haven't been as thorough as I should, but, on the flat, I made the 340 Musselburgh, listed A1 £23.2K , 2m race, the VDW type. Briefly, I believe that ALCAZAR should win this. The only danger I see is Holy Orders, but, bc of the Irish form, I'm finding it difficult to judge. I expect the well touted horse today to be the Johnston thing, and despite the hype, they are a formidable team, with Darley good over 2m. Wings just looks too slow and outclassed for me. I've looked at last six TS and adjusted RPR. I've been concentating on Wolver, so haven't looked at Fiddle's race yet. I'll report back later! |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Hi Investor - I'll have a peek at luchtime. Ta.
![]() __________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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Member |
Wed Nov 3.
235 Musselburgh, D2 hcp £6.7K, 5f. First, I don't like the race: too low a class and a 5f dash at M. Too difficult for me! Anyway, My selections would be IMPERIAL ECHO 296 BOND BOY 292 Those are my numerical top two. On last 6 TS and RPR, Fiddle Me Blue comes into the running, second only to Imperial, on my reckoning. It was on the prize money etc that she scored low. I haven't looked properly at johnd's idea about placement yet. I'll do that later, esp if she wins! |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Yes. This is where the AR does have its limitations as Mtoto and JIB have pointed out. Without looking it up again, I think FMB was a 3 y.o. running against older, more likely to have won more types, and FMB had only won once I think. The AR is useful in races where the competitors are all well exposed, or exposed to roughly the same degree IMO. Hence I put in a couple of things to watch out for when applying it.
__________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Hi Investor
Just listening to the 2.25 on WH radio now. Bought the RP. Can't see where this fits in as a CD method bet to be honest. Like the look of Alcazar tho'. Would love to know what aspects you've modified to get SC (almost) into the method. I'll have a closer look tonight. winners just finished... no signs of SC. ![]() BlackCat __________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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B.C
I said they were Nearly qualifiers,But both of them had bits missing i put them up for you to have a gander at more than anything.When horses like Azertiyoup come along i will put them up. ![]() |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Hi Investor
I do realize that don't worry. But I do like the look of Alcazar. That form (053) may not have the right 'numbers' (111, 121, etc) but when looked at in more detail, you can understand the saying "form can be just an illusion". Trading at evens, and worth a punt imo. BlackCat __________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Thanks for that one Investor. I cant believe it drifted to 11/8.
__________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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B.C
When you take out Holy Orders which was the only horse higher in the ab ratings (and not a form horse) then there was nothing to touch Alcazar from a class point of view. ![]() |
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Johnd
If you are going to try and help Seanrua,Then give him examples of a winner in the race.Not an out of form horse.You say you have studied the examples in the form books.I must say that if you had studied them in depth you wouldn't be saying what you are.Let's take a vdw selection at random,King's Ride 1980 lincoln.Would you put up the last 3 runs. ![]() |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
quote: The forecast and a winner. Respect ![]() __________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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BlackCat
Basically, it is a matter of studying the horses recent runs, (last 4 in this case), noting how the horse performed, where the trainer placed it next, and again how it performed. Done properly,it may prove a worthwhile exercise. Similarly with the previous 3 runs of the one yesterday. Neither of these horses (IMO) could have been considered VDW good things, purely from a class viewpoint, but despite the misgivings of the hoi polloi, in both cases the trainer told you that the horses were really out to win. God knows where I get such outlandish thinking from? ![]() |
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3 Nov.
Selection, Alazar, won. Seems to work much better in listed races. For Mtoto and any/all, my e-mail address is seanruaanseo@yahoo.com I don't look at this Inbox daily, so there will be no rapid replies to any message. |
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Jedi Knight Member ![]() |
Hi Johnd
Thanks for your reply. I've had a look at FMB's last three runs. 10th Sept: same class/value/dist(5f) as today. Finished a close 3rd (btn <2L) 14th Sept: Same dist, but up in value. Race comments are not helpful. 6th (btn 3.5L) 14th Oct: Up to 6f (improve stamina?) and up in value to Listed company. weakened 1f out, btn 9.5L This last race would have brought him on hopefully. Dropped today back into similar company as 10th Sept. This would be my after-timed assessment, and of course ignores the other runners. FMB did run a big race tho'. Listened to WH radio, it sounded as if he was closing at the end. __________________________________________________________ "If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there". |
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investor,mtoto,everyone, did alcazar, have the winner in the race profile?...how far back in a horses race career to assess his true ability,for mtoto, all,trying to contact your email, not connecting,grundy_007@yahoo.co.uk
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