Hi Investor
Had a look at Supreme Catch.

The class horse using AR. 83, (nearest rival 61). Backed up with RPM, Topspeed and OR.

Good trainer and jockey.

But thereafter I struggle to see this as a CD method selection, albeit I accept you said that some elements may not fit.

1. Off course 194 days
2. CR not in the best 3, and LTO was well btn.
3. Has been mostly chasing
4. Not proven at the distance (wins coming at <2M&5f, todays was 3M&0.5f)

The other selection you suggested, Alcazar, now that was a goody for sure. Loads of everything going for it to my mind, although not obvious and needed digging out. That one, I did enjoy. I would have missed it, so thanks again.

Tomorrow will be difficult, but Will try to look in lunchtime. I have gone through briefly and nothing caught my eye. Nottingham is "heavy", so they are issuing the horses with spikes and a snorkle.

BlackCat

B.C
Supreme Catch was not a good example to give,It had a lot of the traits but i shouldn't have bothered you with that one.By the way it is top 3 race class lto cons ratings don't come into it.

Jd,

Will you be tempted by Dandoun 335N (6/14) tomorrow?

Halling:

5f 8% (1-12)
6f 17% (11-64)
7f 11%
8f 14%
9f 5% (2-35)
10f 20%
11f 18% (4-22)
12f 16% (14-84)
14f 6% (1-15)
16f 20% (1-5)
>16f 0% (0-1)
---------------------


Heavy 15% (3-19)
Soft 12% (7-55)
Good/Soft 9% (9-99)
Good 15%
Good/Firm 15%
Firm 20% (12-59)
Hard 0% (0-0)


J Dunlop/Nottingham: 17/126 (4yo+ 2/14)
J Dunlop/S Sanders: 20/126 (4yo+ 5/23)

RPfc 10/1

Jib
I was tempted, but I couldn't make it a bet on its recent form.
Bc
You have missed quite a few points, not all for revelation on here. Email me on john1d2003@yahoo.com and I will clarify.

JohnD
FIDDLE ME BLU was a superb pick, paying 4-1 a place on the Tote. (Betfair I do not know).

Others
6-5 and 11-8 winners are great, but you do of course realise that you have to get 50% winners to get any sort of profit.
If you can, do so, never seen it on this thread yet.

The best winner I have ever seen on this thread was Seanura's MISS GEORGE W 16-1.
I never saw that many compliments though ,especialy from them who suggest looking at the 11-8 fav and the 13-8 2nd fav in a 5 horse race HA HA HA HA

Can I pick the first and second fav in all 5 horse races and just be able to say I got the winner, and have Blackcat say well done!!!!!!!!!!!
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Blow it,
I shall go a little bit further.
I suggest all first and second favourites in 5 and 6 runner races.
Not bothered about ability ratings HAHA HA HA or form figures 1111 or 12121 or any of that rubbish.
I'll just have whichever one wins, CLASS A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H whose bothered.

2 horses of interest today.

Notts Fine Silver
Haydock Master Ride.

Swish
Laugh as much as you like,But keep watching.

Johnd
As i thought,You haven't looked at all the examples at all.I would be interested to know which method you used to conjur up Fiddle me up,Was it Consistency,Roushayd 2yolds to follow at 3,3 y old I have looked at this horse from every possibilty and am mystified,Surely it wasn't just because of the class it had been running in.

Investor,

I haven't looked at the other one, but I do have questions of Fine Silver.

1. While it is admirably consistent on good going or firmer, it has never tried anything softer than good/soft.

2. Ran very well in the Cambridgeshire lto, but was well drawn there and meets St Andrews (who had a middle draw and was 7 3/4l behind him) on 13lbs worse terms.

3. St Andrews previous race had been a 188/97 handicap over 8f on heavy at Haydock where he finished 7l clear of the rest.

Of the pair, I would thus rather trust St Andrews who is proven in class, on going and at distance and could perhaps be forgiven his Cambridgeshire outing on account of his middle draw.

However, the likely price would rule it as a no bet race to me.

Oldtimer

Old timer
The reason i am putting these horses upa tat those that are interested can look at them and see wether they have the traits or vdw elements run through them.Nobody seems to give an opinion on the horses that i put up,No doubt if one loses i'll be f.....g useless but that is not the point of the exercise.I am not claiming anything just trying to point those that are really interested in the right direction as i see it,Anyway nice to hear from you.

as Old Timer says - there are alot of imponderables in the race esp re the going , but none of the principle trainers are exactly buzzing either.

Dandoun looks to be the class horse in the race and was effectivly pulled up in his last race 1f out . he has won on soft and Sanders looks a positive booking.

If all 8 go to post - then at 10/1 then he could be the EW value in the race.

tc

Swish
With all due respect,What you have said in one of your posts is complete rubbish to me."It's allright getting 11/8 and 6/5 winners but you need a 50% s/r to make it pay" shite.Why do you automatically presume that everyone uses level stakes,I may retrieve or use another staking plan.Which i most certainly do iv'e never backed horses level stakes and never will do.

Thurs, November 4.

VDW race:

335 Nottingham, £12K C2, 1m.

My selections:

FINE SILVER
ST ANDREWS

I rate them closely, and note that Investor has also mentioned FS, and Old Timer has pointed out the doubts about the going.

I think I will have a bet in this race, though the prices are short ( sorry, Swish, but at least, you can have a good laugh!!).

I'll go St Andrews Tote place ( 80% of stake)

Fine Silver/St Andrews ( the remaining 20% of stake) CSF ( 1/6 SF).

JIB,
I've ruled out Dandoun, though I rate him 3rd best in the race.

Thanks for all the input, everybody.
I'm running late today.

Just peeking in as its lunchtime and I've got a moment.

Hi Swish
As I recall, Seanrua did get several 'well dones' for Miss George. Personally, I was on holiday until the 1st November.

It seems people who have a positive slant on the VDW letters can not win on here. Many contributors (including Investor) have been accused of not posting pre-race selections. When Investor does put a couple up and they win, are you saying that a 'well done' can't be given because the price is too short? Perhaps 'well dones' should be reserved only for horses that win at prices over - say 4/1 - and in fields of 14 or more? What is the problem with saying well done to someone who puts up two winners from two race selections? I do find your attitude rather surprising.

Hi Johnd.
I'll email you on Monday if that's OK. I am not back at my own PC 'til then.

Hi Investor
I'll have a look at thoses selection tonight. I may have a problem with internet access today and Friday, but I'll definitely come back to you and I appreciate you putting these selections up. As JIB suggested, it is good to look at fresh examples. (I know these are CD method, but that's pretty close!)

General
I have had a few emails regarding Mr. Halls Key. I don't look in the BlackCat email box very often, so sorry for not spotting them sooner. I wrote a full explanation of how I came to my conclusion. As above, I'm not on my own PC, so I will post in up on Monday. Didn't mean to start off a wave of expectancy.

Please - Don't get excited - you WILL be disappointed.

However, I am of the opinion that full, frank and open debate is the way forward for all of us to impprove. That's why we're here, isn't it?

BlackCat

""However, I am of the opinion that full, frank and open debate is the way forward for all of us to impprove. That's why we're here, isn't it?

BlackCat ""...


Absolutely, BC!

B.C
The 2 horses today are not to do with c.d method when i put them up i will just put "method" beforehand.The 2 today need to be looked at from a vdw perspective.And individuals will( hopefully ) start to see a picture emerging which will be enable them to discuss things on my wavelength.

T.c
Dandoun..Class horse,But was it in form."no"Could fine silver give an 11lb swing in the weights on ground he wasn't proven on to a horse that he had previously btn but which had shown form over same c/d on the same ground ?Should the race have been played in "no".

Master ride
Ran lto for the first time since april beaten a country mile good form "no".

Only old timer and Seanrua where on the ball.But well done with your e.w.

4 Nov

1st St Andrews 11/10
2nd Fine Silver
3rd Dandoun.

Obviously, I don't know correct VDW procedure, but I believe this WAS a race to play in - mainly bc it's listed.

I find my attempt at VDW type methodology works best in listed races.
The ratings gave the 123 in correct order.

However, at my beloved Wolver, using exactly the same method gave me a last place and a near last place!

My conclusion is that listed races are the ones for this type of method.

Another bad mistake, in my initial post, was the staking plan; a better way was the one I actually used (luckily);

80% stake on CSF or Exacta, St A to bt FS.

20% FS win .( loss)

(Exacta paid 2 * Stk.)

Sean,

Is this address correct??.......seanruaanseo@yahoo.com, it keeps coming back!

Be Lucky