Epi
Try finding BREWSTER.lol

Cheers, Investor.

I can see and agree that success at punting is, indeed, a balancing act. All the plates must be kept spinning, for if just one falls, we're out.

What threw me, I think, is the word "kingpin" which I took to be the most important piece that held everything else together.

Anyway, I'm as happy as larry as my bet Otago has just won at Lingers!

I tried to work out a VDW selection for the next ( £12K race) but got stuck with Desert Lord and Moayed.

My preference is Buy on Red and Lygeton Lad, so that's put the moccas on that!

Hi Epi

Parkview Love

May have the best AR, didn't check them all. The AR of 138 was primarily gained via a win in a race worth £23,200 as a 2 y.o. Nothing wrong with that in itself I suppose. But what had been achieved recently? (sweet FA)

Next, we are in a low value race £5,100 grade E. Not the place to be making the method pay according to the VDW method. (It doesn't stop me looking tho', but I understand 'why' the method requests better races I think).

Next, CR of 25, made up of 6, 9 and 0. Doesn't that provide a bit of a clue as to its current consistent form? (Having said that, the '6' wasn't bad, 5L behind in a D race - but can't bet on that alone).

Don't know what the betting forecast said, but it was joint 6th favourite with 3 or 4 others at 12/1. Not exactly 'fancied' then.

There are soooooo many clues here as to why it was not a VDW style selection (imo), that I can't help but feel you must be joking! Hopefully, once you have read the pamphlets, you will make a bit of progress.

One tip: if you read them with the attitude that they hold some merit - you will probably be right. If you read them with the attitude that they are b*ll*x - you will probably be right as well. Attitude, as in so many things, is everything!

Good luck

Black cat
Nicely constructed and quite informative post,Good for you.

P.s
Any questions and i'm only fingertips away.Having said that i should have made a lot more notes before passing the books on.Nevertheless if i can help i will.

Black cat
Just a quicky mate,Don't make the mistake of thinking the consistency ratings are consistent form.A lot of people make this mistake,Consistent form is different and has you go through the various examples it will become clearer but don't expect it to happen overnight.You have a long haul ahead of you but it is worth it be positive and don't give up.

Hi Investor

Many thanks. It will be a long job. I'll plod through slowly over the next year. If I have any questions, I will certainly fire them up here - cheers.

Good luck

BlackCat

Interestingly, my attempt to rate the £12 K race at Lingfield using "VDW ideas" gave me, top-rated by 7 points,

MOAYED , the winner!

In the same race, my speed figure method produced zilch ( though it had already made me a decent profit in earlier races).

Hey Seanrua - good going!

I suppose we all want different things from racing and from the methods we employ.

For me, a high strike rate is essential now.

I was looking back at 2002 results. I was backing in 8 races a day or thereabouts and achieving a 20% SR. That leaves a LOT of losers! I never want to go there again.

With the little I know of the Van der Wheil method, and using it the way I do, I am only finding about 5 bets a week. More bets would decrease the SR, which I am not prepared to allow. So for me 5 bets a week - sometimes less (like this week) is all the method will produce.

I could apply the VDW workings to more races. But then, not all the jigsaw pieces would be present. Yes, I will miss winners. But I will let them pass as I know I am missing even more losers!

Investor,

You stated that Silver Birch had a rating of 90 and Harchibald a rating of 81.

You added that the rating is the second rating used by VDW and was based on form.

A question if I may,

did working out how VDW arrived at that rating take much working out ?

Determined
It took me over 2 years and i still don't know if i'm spot on,I get Little owl 91 (vdw 90) sunset christo 87 (vdw 90) Kenlis 85 (vdw 88) Gaye chance 88 (vdw 90).It is based on form and is numerate based which of course the basis of his methods.I know they aren't the same figures but there within 2 or 3 and he may well have hidden them a bit.But i'm quite happy with my findings.Lee said a while back that consistentcy is the "key" and this is were you will find these figures.

I quite understand your view, BC.

Mtoto has said that he prefers to have fewer but better and bigger bets. Sensible policy if you can pick 'em.

Certainly, avoiding bad bets is as important as winning bets, but I feel that the returns on investment are all important.

I haven't found shorter means safer, as regards price and success. Like you, I think we have to use the methods that we prefer.

Haydock 3:10 Raw Silk is clearly indicated, considering it's forecast market position it looks an interesting one for the theory.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Nofinepix:


HK and Best Mate and molly codling and running in a bog - he's run on heavy twice won 1, placed 1. He's run GS 4 times won 3, placed 1. Now I'm certainly no expert but would think the going had absolutley nothing to do with the result today - okay he's never run on soft (but hardly a bog), but the goings either side he won 4 from 6 - quite consistent I think.

---

Nfp
The race he won on heavy was little more than an exercise canter. In is only other race on heavy ground, he was beaten 14l, albeit by Barton.
He isn't the same horse on heavy ground.
Having said that, my view is that none of his last 3 performances were up to his previous form, and he is there to be shot at by a horse of the right calibre.

Johnd
"none of his last 3 performances were up to his previous form and he is there to be shot at"

Given that statement above,Why do you contradict my view on Hardy Eustace.

Getting right down to the nitty-gritty, I've tried to use my limited idea of VDW on completely the wrong type of race - just to see what may happen.

Thre best race at Lingers isn't much today, but here goes:

December 30, 2.50 Lingfield, £6K D2 Classified 3yo+ , 1m.

Binanti 88
Steely Dan 75
Analyse 70
Admiral Compton 70

Last year I was there when an old favourite of mine, Labrett was the winner.
Emotionally, I would go for Labrett again, but trying to be rational, my own picks from the shortlist are
Analyse and Admiral Compton - both ew.

We'll see.

I'll try looking at Epi's Haydock race to see what I can see.

Epi
Although having a cons rating of 5.Raw Silk doesn't possess the qualities that are required to put money down.By far the most likely winner imo is St Matthew has been running Consistently in higher class,But again i won't be getting involved.

Epi.

310 Haydock ( december 30).

St Matthew to beat Raw Silk.

Looks higher class to me, but tipped up by Nick Fox. Oh, oh.
Top and bottom in the betting: trad forecast.

If there were an even money fav, I suppose I should back that - according to a system I mentioned before ( somewhere on Gummy forum).

As it is, RS looks good place value at 3.6 on busfare, if you really fancy it!?!

St Matthew may well have the best chance of winning but that doesn't alter the fact that Raw Silk is the horse indicated by VDW procedure. As it's a 5 runner field consistency ratings are irrelevent.

Epi
Stop talking out of your Asa.Let me guess,If it loses vdw's methods don't work.What if it wins.

"Consistent form combined with ability in higher class is a force to be reckoned with"

God give me strength.

If it wins and they carry on winning, great. Swish's question, implied by this thread, will have been answered in the positive.