Guest Anyone

I wonder if you can help? The way I understand it one of the following horses is out of form , one is not. I will give the details of their last 3 runs (last race first) and then any relevant details that relate to the horses in general.

Horse A
race value £2033 dist 12f finished 2nd beaten a length when 7/4 fav on good going
race value £6,846 dist 10f won 4/1 fav on soft going
race value £8,773 dist 12f finished 2nd beaten a 1/2 a length price 14/1 on yielding going

This horse has won over 12f on good going at a grade A course race value £5.306. In it's last race it was beaten by a horse that was rated 14lbs inferior by the handicaper.

HorseB

race value £3,930 dist 16f finished 2nd beaten1 length 6/4 fav on heavy going
race value £4,383 dist 16f won 4/5 fav on good going
race value £8,526 dist 16f won 5/2 on yielding going

This horse has a record of 3 runs and 3 defeats on heavy going. In the last race it had to give 4lbs to a horse rated approximately 5lbs superior by the handicaper.

I'm not asking if you think either can win it's next race. The question is if either horse ran a race over a similar distance and going it can handle, within 31 days, would you discount them for being out of form, and why?

Thanks

Mtoto - To be fair, not enough info is included in your data to determine real form, a point which goes back to my question that how can anyone assert my interpretation of VDWs ideas about form are wrong, when they don't know all the facts I am considering. Luckily I spotted who the runs belonged to and the answer to your question is totally dependant on who their opposition would be because everything is relative. To be honest, the ORs are of little consequence to the process apart from the fact that they determine how much weight is carried in handicaps. Trainers seek to reduce these ratings when possible, but most horses who continue to win good races have to defy higher marks at some point.

Determined - Smokin Beau was a good thing today. Mitcham showed form last time but not good form. Once again also a 25/1 winner fails to deliver at much shorter odds next time. There was conflict all over the Abernant, but once again the majority view was proved wrong as thousands let their eyes decieve them. Reel Buddy confirmed the form comfortably with the favourite. Not a betting race though as far as VDW methods go. The Nell Gwyn clearly showed the chance to make a book with Misterah and Half Glance streets ahead on real form.

hi mtoto,
guests living in the past post refers to these two horses , your question if either could win in 31 days has got me thinking about florida pearl for some obscure reason .
mac.
p.s.thanks for your evaluations today.

my apologies mtoto, you said could you discount them as being out of form in that time & why?.

my interpretation of a winner in a race

courtledge

i had my note book out ready for today and bugger me they are in the same race,and there could be a suprise anyway so temprement.

Guest.

Thanks for your quick reply. I knew you would know who the horses were. Your answer gives me 2 problems. Are you saying horse B is not out of form, just that the form isn't good enough to win the next race entered? If so that makes me wonder the purpose of the ability rating? I'm sure you will say it doesn't prove weather a horse is in form. Horse B is eliminated before the ability rating is applied, but is the deciding factor of why horse C is selected. Why was horse C not eliminated as being out of form when it is making a big step up in class? It's last 3 races read....

Horse C

race value £621 dist 16f finished 2nd beaten 5 lengths when 2nd fav at 9/4 on good going
race value £1,405 dist 20f finished 2nd beaten 4 lengths 8/1 on soft going
race value £8.881 dist 16f finished 4th beaten 11 1/2 lengths 10/1 on heavy going

I agree the form facts are a little bare, but in this case they are the facts as they stand from the form book, and racing papers I have to hand. I assume they are all vdw and yourself had to work on when you made your decision on this horse.

The point I am trying to make is, why was horse B thrown out as being out of form, when horse C is left in? I can see only one reason, but that would then place a big? over horse A. As I have said before B has to be eliminated before you can make your method work. VDW never said he was out of form, he said he had a hard race. I agree with that, but we don't know what sort of race C had. Does anyone?

Good luck if you have a bet today

hi mtoto if im on the right track with all this horse A has shown illusions in form,horse B has blown his top & horse C has been brought to boil.
mac

Mtoto,

Excellent effort with your horse's A, B and C! We could have a VDW based quiz night - guess the horse from the form lines!!

It made me laugh anyway.

GUEST,

Didn`t VDW raise the question `what is form ` and the answer given was `that one performance is better than another`.

If I had used that basis for evaluating the 2.25 Nottingham on 16/04/02 I`m pretty sure my final conclusion of no bet would be a little different, ie – class C form hardly compares with proven class A and B form.

As you and Swish stated Smokin Beau was a good thing. A basic and simple error of judgement on my part. I`m sure it won`t be my last but one hopes they are few and far between.

Continent / Reel Buddy – looking back at the Quail Stks it is quite clear that Reel Buddy lost as many lengths as `C` given that he had to go around the whole field. As you stated the reaction of the majority of punters certainly made `C` a false price yesterday.


Today`s racing – although after the event my evaluations will always be honest. For me there were 3 probable winners today namely In Contrast ( not at the price ), Fadalko who I confidently expected to beat WS ( factors against notably his very poor Cheltenham record and the likely steady pace ) and Indalo.

Just a comment on Dandoun – a false favourite given that the form wasn`t in the book ?

Any comments will be very much appreciated.

Cheers,

hi mtoto in retrospect should have said horse C was brought to the boil using illusions in form also but he was finishing where expected in nearly every one of his last 3 runs dont know if its significant or not but so had Kayseri the other day.
I know like you this is very important hope we can get to the bottom of this through time.
mac.

Mac.

I can only assume by the terminolgy used you now who the horses are. I didn't give their names because answers like that are of no help to me. I am looking for logical reasons, not ones based on preconceived ideas.
Can you honestly say that the answer would be the same if horses B and C were running in a £9,000 race tomorrow. You would discount B as boiled over and C would be the one as it was primed. I would like to hear the reasons based on cold logic. I think this is a classic case of back fitting.

Lee

Glad it gave you a laugh. I would be more than happy to hear your answer to the question.

Regards

Mtoto,

I know you are aware that the form lines you’ve put up, as Guest has already suggested, lack a lot of necessary information in order to see the whole picture. And so it really would be IMPOSSIBLE to judge the form, conclusively, using VDW’s methods, with just the facts that you’ve given. And like Guest, and yourself no doubt, their future success can only depend on whom they are up against. In this case I would say that horse A will be in form and win, and horse B out of form and lose!! Only joking!!

I realise why you’ve picked these two, and in light of how they were judged by VDW when they next raced goes someway to dampen down the importance of Official Ratings other than to determined what weight a horse will carry in handicaps. Celtic Pleasure 2nd last time out to a horse that was inferior according to the Official Handicapper. And Beacon Light, again 2nd last time, but to a horse that was superior according to the Official Handicapper.

In the case of Celtic Pleasure it is worth asking the question differently and you’ll get a different picture. Forget the Official Handicappers view and think about it like this, Celtic Pleasure finished 2nd to a horse whilst giving away 12 lbs. Was this a good effort or not in comparison to the opposition he faced on the 21st April 78?

Mtoto,

I`m going to put in my two penneth for all their worth.

On the information provided and given horse B`s history on heavy ground I wouldn`t immediately say he was out of form.
I would however ask myself why is the trainer dropping the horse in race value each time ?
If his next race was value £9000 I`d be reluctant to play unless the opposition was weak.

If C was in the race and he was considered the only danger ( lets say nothing else could touch them ) I`d possibly leave the race alone because horse C hadn`t done enough to suggest he was ready and horse B I`d have doubt in my mind given his last run and the fact that the trainer had continued to drop him in class.

By the way I don`t know which horses you are talking about. Perhaps I should.

Don`t know whether I`ve helped any. Judging by your direct reponse to Mac I`m sure you will tell me.

Cheers,

I wasn`t aware of Lee`s last post. Was obviously preparing my on Word at the time. I`m a very slow typist.

I`ve only had the old form books for while and as yet I have not reviewed any examples in any great detail.

Given the fact that you named Celtic Pleasure I had a very very quick look and hand on heart I think I know exactly what you mean.

Race 2 when beaten over 2 furlongs further with 15 lbs more actual wgt would certainly improve his fitness, etc.

Very well placed race 3 which was confirmed by market support, ie - 11/2 to 7/2.

A similar scenario will crop up numerous times over the coming season like every other year.

If I`m going off on the wrong track please say so but looking at the way I look at hcaps I think I`m OK ( SOME OF THE TIME ).

Cheers,

Macktheknife-
Thanks for your efforts in helping.With a name like that I wouldn't want to meet you down a dark alley but I always try to see the good in people and I wouldn,t be at all surprised if you were a bit of a card.

mac

good for you for trying to help but it doesnt work

even if you shouted "LAST ORDERS" some would say 2 pints lager and a packet of crisp please.

MTOTO,

you have got to be taking the piss

I said in an earlier post that analysing the minutae of previous races was pointless because the self same circumstances were unlikely to be replicated. This seems to have been misconstrued a touch into a bland statement by me that looking at past examples is pointless. Not so, the exact circumstances of one race can never be repeated but there can be obvious similarities between races. I wish people would actually read things properly,it might help them a bit.
Whatever. Going back to VDWs letter about Prominent King and IMPs quote from it, we can possibly draw a parallel between PK's race and SB/Mitchum's.
Using 2 methods etc I found Mitchum well out of it (out of it in relation to SB anyway). Ring a bell anyone?
Granted we cant have everything exactly as it was in the past and on a personal level I would want proven fitness before considering SB as much a cert as Guest did - but here we have Mitchum, the top ability horse and a winner LTO too being shown as outclassed by other aspects of the consistency method. At the time of the PK letter had the ability rating even been mentioned yet? Taking that out of the equation how does M look in relation to SB now, or even BL with PK?
regards.

Lee.

I have never had a problem with Celtic Pleasure winning at Sandown on the 21/4/78. I only brought him into the equation because Guest disagreed about there being a similarity between him and Beacon Light.

Both were beaten favourite, both dropping in class in the last three runs, both set to carrying less weight. One is dismissed as being out of form, the other not. The one that is in form has won a better race at the distance and won on the going and beaten by an inferior horse. I understand what you are saying about lack of detail in the form I supplied, but in the case of PK that is all there is.

In other examples Guest has found the class/form horse, rejected it, and said no bet. In this example he has rejected it and then carried on looking for another horse, WHY? Is this because it was an example given by vdw that showed the winner? To get the winner using the methods vdw later explained you have to find a reason to drop Beacon Light. The easiest way is to say out of form, vdw never said that. He said he didn't figure in the other ratings so was out of consideration.

I agree PK and CP were the vdw selections, I disagree with the method used to find them. I am also happy to be proved wrong, as long as it is based on logic, and holds up in other examples. VDW said look at see what had beaten the horse or what did it beat. Although racing has changed I can't except vdw only used penalty value as a guide to the class of a horse. He did mention the course, was this not also a guide to class? As I have said the ability rating was used later to try and help people, it was not the formula he was using.

Barny

Did you have help thinking up your reply to me? or was it all your own work? The answer is no