Thanks to those who replied to my question regarding Florida Pearl.
Statajack-
I can't argue with anything you said.Even if I understood fully what VDW was saying there is still the question of temperament to consider and avoiding slipping back into my old gambling ways. You seem to be able to sit it out until everything lines up which is an achievement in itself.I am however increasingly convinced there were good logical reasons why Guest expected a reversal and hopefully I can see find some of them.
Mac The Knife-
I'm glad you posted that.After I posted my question regarding Florida Pearl I looked things over again and wondered about some sort of relationship there.
Determined-
It may well seem easy to those who have sorted it out.Hopefully one day we'll find out how easy it is.You seem to have learnt very quickly.I've been floundering about for years trying to understand the methodology.I think where I was going wrong was I was trying to relate what VDW said in his letters to present day examples, which is fair enough,but I had no guidance then from people who were experienced in VDW's methods.I also hadn't acquired the relevant form books which in my opinion are vital to understanding the way VDW was thinking.I had previously come to my own conclusions about what form was.Once I had the form books however it quickly became obvious that my definition of form was completely different to VDW's for the simple reason that I couldn't understand how he made the selections.Strangely enough my own methods were profitable. But VDW did say that no research on logical lines was ever wasted and perhaps the profitability underlines the basic soundness on which VDW's methods were based.
Guest-
I'll be giving your answers to the Florida Pearl questions a lot of thought.Then there is Lee's post about Stray Shot to consider......

Thanks to everyone who tryed to help.

Bream.

GUEST,

According to Lee you have today given your biggest nudge yet whilst discussing Stray shot with Fulham.

I thought I was getting somewhere with regards identifying the class/form horses and if I`m honest with myself then yes I`ve had some success however your statement today and I quote

" SS was not entitled to win his race prior to Huntingdon " has well and truely confused me.

Abernant Stks tomorrow - I`ve mentioned this race for 2 reasons, ie -

a) there is a horse running in this race tomorrow who I believe will show he`s coming to the boil without winning given the conditions of the race. The run will be to bring him on in fitness for the sole purpose of winning the Duke Of York in a few weeks time. COULD THIS BE A WAY OF SAYING THE HORSE IS NOT ENTITLED TO WIN TOMORROW ?

b) identifying the class/form horse(s) in this race tomorrow I believe is very difficult even if working on the fact that the class/form horse will be the one IN FORM WITH THE HIGHEST ABILITY RATING.

****** any assistance you can give tomorrow will be very much appreciate. I do not think my request is asking for the winner to be named because i firmly believe the decision of the experts tomorrow will be to leave the race alone due to conflict ******

Regards,

Your comment that I seem to have learnt very quickly is a nice comment to make but kind though it is I`ve only just started to scratch the service.

Having said that when looking back at some of my past evaluations (all in hindsight) I am confident that I will find some very good winners this season.

That said, its reducing the no` of losers which is whats its all about in my opinion.

Cheers,

I'm surprised there wasn't much discussion on saturdays MVR although the winner was put up not much reasoning. Was it that obvious? The bookies/punters didn't think so at 4/1 the field in a 6? horse race.


sat 13april2002
PM ascot
MVR 200

rate all for ability Upgrade top
most consistent Upgrade
best postmark over distance Upgrade
best topspeed over distance Upgrade
most recent run Upgrade
only CD Upgrade
top lto class Upgrade

winner Upgrade 4/1
is it really this simple?
what percentage of these win?
how many a year?
could you make a living just backing these?

cheers IMP

Service should of course read surface.

Re` your latest post. I`m not well enough versed to answer but hopefully one of the experts will respond.

Nottingham tomorrow - its my bedtime but very quickly it looks as though there could be one or two `winners in the race` running tomorrow subject to the prices availible.

Cheers,

On the subject of checking out old examples from many years ago, I am firmly in favour of this course of action. After all these were the horses that VDW selected and imparted to us for our own perusal so that we might understand his line of thinking. Anyone yet to understand his methods is unlikely to know what types of horses VDW would select these days so how can they decide which horses to investigate? It may seem daft to some to be thumbing through old dusty formbooks, but when the rewards are known it becomes a very worthwhile chore. A message yesterday on Maxs thread within the VDW area clearly says to me that some are only interested in tipping competitions rather than finding horses for serious investments. Nothing wrong with that really, but totally not what VDW was about. Those who scoff at others searching through the old VDW examples have no idea what really lies within those VDW letters and articles. If they knew half of the truth then they would rushing to their nearest secondhand book store rather than trying to find the winner of the next novice hurdle at Plumpton. But they don't and they won't because that is the way of the vast majority of punters. Very few seemed to have gone the full route round VDWs treasure map, even after some 24 years. Maybe more have started out now due to increased awareness via the internet and some will get there, have no doubts. When they do, they will know it and they will also realise that to just tell everyone everything they have learned would be plain daft in the long run.

Lee/Fulham/Determined - Another factor, that has been raised indirectly, about Stray Shot was the penalty clause in the entries. A penalty was incurred for any win after 18th November. Duesenberg won in mid-December, where as Stray Shots last race was at Huntingdon on the 17th November. So had he been good enough to win that race he would have incurred no penalty.

Barney - The class rating (penalty value of the race) was and still is just one guide. It is not foolproof when used alone by any means, but very reliable when used in conjunction with all the other factors.

Fulham/everyone - Finding the form horses is pretty quick really, though some are not what they appear on deeper study. All the 6 examples VDW gave in the Boxing Day exercise were the form horses with the highest ability rating. You are right about those who won in Ireland previously in that not all runs are listed in the form annuals. Mistakes were also made by the Life though as seen with Bonny Gold. Using their info, which is what VDW clearly did for the example, the horse was clear on ability rating, but using Raceforms annual it is clear that BG had won more races in the uk that were not listed in the life. The rating was wrong then, but VDW was unlikely to have given the race normal consideration anyway. It was just an exercise to show the power of class/form. The term itself is self explanatory really. We are looking to isolate the classiest form horse based on well researched criteria and not the majority opinion. Surely anyone who has bet for any length of time must have realised by now that the majority opinion on how to find winners is greatly flawed. You could lose yourself a fortune following the tv pundits and so called experts who rely too much on what the eye appears to tell them. Stick to the facts on what horses actually do and you can't go far wrong. The trick is establishing which facts to concentrate on and how to interpret them.

good thing??

225n

it should be ok even if its half a leg missing

I suspect you are referring to Mitcham who`s ability rating is along way clear of the 2nd rated Smokin Beau.

My initial thought last night was that `M` was looking promising however I believe the hcap form surrounding the close up horses in last years Ayr Gold Cup is some of the best hcap form around over previous years.

I expect Continent to be a top sprinter this season (today ?) therefore S.Beau trying to concede 10 lbs to him in the Gold Cup was a hell of a run.

S.Beau runs well fresh and may cause `M` a few problems.

I`m still evaluating todays events but at the moment despite my positive comments re` SB I still suspect `M` will come out on top.

***** if the horse you`ve identified is infact SB then I guess I look a bit of a plonker *****

Be in touch again later.

Guest

I agree with everything you said in your last post.

I think, however, that by specifying in your final para. horses which have won in Ireland you are inadvertently misleading those interested in exploring the examples. For example, working only from the Raceform Form Books, one could be forgiven for thinking that the 1979 St Leger had been won by a maiden.

2.25 Nottingham

Mitcham (282) – career best in 1999 winning King Stand.
OR at its peak = 117.
Season`s 2000 and 2001 = only average hcap form. Best run at Haydock in May 01 recording PM = 103 off an OR = 92.
***** gelded at start of 2001.
First run this season. Class C. Value £7507. 0-95. Won as he liked always travelling as if he was different class. Recorded a PM rating of 109 which is best for over 2 years.
OR upped to = 100.
Is he on his way back ?
Has 10 lbs less actual weight to carry today which can only help his cause.


Smokin Beau
Year 2001 was all about improvement. Started year rated 75 and ended year on OR = 106.
Last run was close 3rd in Listed race at Newmarket recording a PM figure of = 112.
Clearly a progressive horse who runs well fresh and will love todays fast ground conditions.
If a hcap today he`d be giving `M` 6lbs.

How will the race be run ? Both the above plus the out of form R.Pet like to force the pace so I expect a fast run race therefore will the fitness advantage `M` hold be decisive ?

Conclusion – I`m convinced the 2 principles will fight out the finish but I am unable to separate them. The prices expected will not allow a book to be made therefore no bet seems the likely conclusion in my opinion.

Any comments will be very much appreciated.

Determined

On both the devices I'm researching re the identification of the "class/form" horse in VDW's sense, Mitcham is the answer, well ahead on the ability rating and he has a lot going for him. He's had a run and, as you say, is carrying 10lb actual weight less than when winning on 1 April.

However, there are contra-indications. For example, with one exception (but nearly three years ago), his record over the distance is meagre, and he is running off 6lb worse terms with Smoking Beau than if this were a handicap.

Smoking Beau has shown the capability to win first time out (albeit in much lower class to today's race), was super-consistent towards the end of last season, and seems more at home over today's trip.

I agree with you that one or other is the probable winner, but it would be no great surprise to me if what I am assuming is the "class/form" was beaten today. The horse that wins - and there are others to be considered - is likely to need all four legs!

Thanks for your valuable comments.

I`ll be shortly putting up a few comments on the very difficult Abernant Stks shortly and I again would value yours and others feedback if time allows.

Doesn`t have to be before the race of course.

Also, at your convenience could you let me have the opening times, etc of the newspaper Museum as it looks as though sometime this year I`ll be paying a visit.

Regards,

Hi Determined

We are certainly working on the same races!

In case I forget, the Newspaper Library is just across the road from the tube station on the Northern Line between Hendon Central and Burnt Oak. (Can't mention the exact station, not because of normal VDW secrecy, but because its akin to the first name of a "controversial" tipster/bookmaker, and the board software has clearly been programmed not to accept the first five letters!) Details of access arrangements and opening times are given on a recorded message on 020 7412 7353.

Thanks again. My comments on the Abernant to follow immed`.

ABERNANT STAKES

I offered the view last evening that identifying the class/form horses in this event in my opinion was going to be difficult. Here my novice effort.

Firstly, the majority of the field have run at least once this season and I believe 5 could be called FORM horses namely Continent (368), Orientor (326) , Falcon Hill (120), Reel Buddy (110) and Needwood Blade (105) .

The ability rating is the figure in brackets.

The ability ratings for both Continent and Orientor are primarily the result of top class hcap form. That said, Orientor although not winning form has some very good placed efforts in Listed / Group company albeit on soft ground. Continent, to date does not have class A plus form in the book and for that reason I discount him as a class/form horse.

Orientor however given proven form in this grade plus the fact that he is in form is considered a class/form horse.

Similar comments attached to Continent also apply to Reel Buddy and N.Blade.

Falcoln Hill`s last run can safely be ignored (wrong distance). His winning run on seasonal debut makes him a class/form horse.

Of the runners yet to race this season Invincible Spirit (151) given his proven Group 3 winning form (in record time for the course) is a class/form horse.

Summary – 3 x class/form horses namely Orientor, I.Spirit and F.Hill.

Ground conditions not ideal for `O` although he has hcap form on fast ground. Most would expect him to improve for his debut and therefore turn the tables on `FH` however given his wide draw I`m not so sure.

In my opinion `IS` is the class horse of the race and if not carrying the 6 lbs penalty today he`d be a confident selection. The stats` for penalty carriers in this race is very poor which is even more reason the let him run today. That said, winning today would not incur a penalty for the Duke Of York so the incentive to win is there.

My temperament is going to be tested to the full today because I really want to back this horse yet the evaluation says no.

Any comments ?

Hi Determined

Good luck if you succumb to the temptation and have a bet in the 2.15. Its far too hard for me, posing numerous questions I can't convincingly answer.

Off now to earn a living!

determined

still smokin, the third was even better when the ground was all wrong

My temperement weakened and a small investment was lost on Invincible Spirit.

I was asking a proven group horse to give 6 lbs away to in form horses on its seasonal debut. It was clearly too much to ask.

Will I make an investment in such circumstances in the future ? NO.

Points from the race.

Continent will be placed to win in this grade.

Orientor did not enjoy the fast ground and is better than his finishing position.

Invincible Spirit will come on for the run and next time ( York ? ) he will not have a penalty.

You are gu`nar hav` to speeeek English otherwise I`m gu`nar hav` te employ a translator.

Cheers,