Mtoto - The factual data you gave about A (Celtic Pleasure) and B (Beacon Light) is important as part of the overall picture, but does not make up the picture in full by any means. VDW gave us the tools and basic tuition but didn't spell out all the tricks of the trade (see his carpenters analogy). There were many things he didn't spell out, but they were there and the fact that he didn't specifically say "Beacon Light was not a form horse" should not lead you to think he was one. VDW often appeared to only glance over certain points that he may have felt controversial.

Apart from the above, there is still little comparison between A & B. Horse A had run just twice and it was early days for the season. Horse B had endured a pretty hectic campaign before failing to hold off his conqueror last time in the 2nd half of the season. Horse A had also been running in handicaps not conditions races, a distinction that VDW pointed out for us in PKs race, why do you think he did that?

Even if a horse won last time out, it can still be taken as not a form horse when compared against others with better performances. That is what VDW mean't by his "What is form if it is not that one perfomance is better than another?" question.

As Lee clearly intimated earlier, he nor I can tell you what information to provide us with so as to answer the question about horse A & B, without giving away some vital points that have remained hidden to the majority for many years. Speaking for myself, I can only repeat that my position has not changed on that front and I will never display the "hidden" points I am aware of in public. These points would have clearly shown Determined that he had little to fear from Mitcham based on the facts in the form book. The same points would have shown also that Dandouns last win was not worth a lot really. In Contrast was a genuine odds on chance and had nothing to fear from anything other than the unexpected. Not worth a bet at the price, but a racing certainty nonetheless. Fadalko was also the class/form horse and a good thing taken accordingly.

Statajack - VDW backed plenty of good things first time up for the season. His advice to those just starting out with his methods that they should let the first few months go by or tread very carefully was just a caution until experience was gained. Most horses show from the past as to if they can win after a break. As also they show what time of the year they prefer or not as with Fadalko and Wahiba Sands.

It's also worth noting that VDWs 29 from 32 for the opening of the flat was roughly 6 weeks from the 2nd half of March and would have included lots of NH bets including Aintree runners,etc.

mtoto,

if you have time, look at the four examples i gave you a month ago these clearly point out, the factor to watch for and the one you appear to be having trouble with, when assesed in comparisson to other runners.every race is different.

you also point out thats all the form there is for pk, it isnt all thats there as factual evidence in black and white.

sorry if i offended you but you are dancing all round it and i find it difficult to believe that someone who has been winning for years can overlook the most important information about any race.

when analysing old races consider every bit of detail or your trying to solve the rubik cube with 3/4 of the stickers missing.

hope this helps and i hope you can find the time to look up the above races

[This message was edited by Barney on April 18, 2002 at 06:17 AM.]

[This message was edited by Barney on April 18, 2002 at 06:20 AM.]

Guest

As you say, VDW gave a number of selections running for the first time in a season, not least Lincoln winners.

I was interested in your comment:

"Most horses show from the past as to if they can win after a break."

Do you think that VDW regarded the evidence relating to mid season breaks as throwing light on the question of which horses were most likely to be able to win on their return to the course after the much longer lay-off between one Flat season and another?

good morning everybody

just had a quick look and we should have a field day today

good luck

Patience is a virtue.

Every race is different and so are people.

Mtoto will know more than perhaps I ever will.

If anybody is dancing around it is me and yes I need help but I accept it will not be spelt out for me and nor should it.

I know there are many nudges from so many of you but some of us and here I`m referring to me a little more patience is required.

I am going to be cheeky on 2 counts,

a) could I have the 4 examples you gave Mtoto

b) today is a field day; please give us some class/form horses before racing if your circumstances permit.

I am behind schedule but when I start evaluating I`m expecting FIGHT YOUR CORNER to have many plus` .

Regards,

A quick scan through the Cheltenham card for today and two caught my eye

1.30 2m 1f 90 nov hurdle

CASTLESHANE, 5th of 11 in 290, 8th of 16 in 261, 2nd of 8 in a 109. This class looks just up his street. Course winner over 16.5f, ground's no problem.

STARS OUT TONIGHT was 8th in Supreme Novices, but nothing else to back that up, his win at Kempton was a weak field bar Deep Sunset. worth opposing at the likely price.

RUBY GALE looks held in the class.

HITMAN has some form up to winning this, but is unpredictable, and has something to find on recent runs.

I reckon CASTLESHANE is pretty solid VDW material.


2.35 2m 5.5f 196 hcap hurdle

TUCACAS won smoothly in class 64 at Ascot, looking to have a bit to spare. Key class run a fair run at Cheltenham, up there to the 7th in class 522(finished 18th of 27), which I would rate up to this class. Won in class 45 before. I don't think this is an awful lot tougher than the class 64 at Ascot.

NO NEED FOR ALARM has winninf form in three lower class events 54, 26, 31.

MYDANTE is improving but only won a class 43 last time.

BELLE D'ANJOU and TWO FOR JOY have winning form in lower class, the former is my idea of the greatest danger to TUCACAS.


Well there we go, neck on the block, CASTLESHANE and TUCACAS!

Good on yer.

Very quickly as I`m wellbehind on my evaluations today.

I note like you, Max is keen on TUCACAS which can only be a positive and my early indication is that I will be agreeing with you both.

VDW methodology as I understand it should see us all identifying the same probables which is interesting as later on I anticipate I will be having a different opinion to both you and Max with regards other horses you have put up.

BE LEFT IN NO DOUBT THAT IT DOESN`T MEAN I`M RIGHT INFACT IT MAYBE A PLUS FOR YOU IF I DIFFER.

More later.

Neck on the block time,

1.30 Chel` class/form horses Hitman and Castleshane who I expect to have the race to themselves.

2.00 Chel` class/form horse Iris Royal who in my opinion has factors against, ie – 2 hard races recently and having to concede a lot of actual weight to form horses namely Bold Investor and Bold King. The jockey booking for the latter is very significant. Fill your boots ?

2.35 Chel` class/form horse Tucacas – highest abilty is Monger Lane who beat nothing of `T` class last time.

3.45 Chel` class/form horse Wave Rock – see Max`s comments on the other VDW thread.

4.20 Chel` clas/form horse Montayral.

No comments on Newmarket as Cheltenham has kept me busy enough.

Could be a very expensive day or on the positive side well you never know.

Cheers,

looks like you and i are singing from the same song sheet.
with regard to montayral i agree it is the horse to be on ability wise but i was a little put off because of the ground. my selection took into account how i think the field will handle todays conditions and allthough silver streak does need to step up on what it has achieved it will handle the quicker ground and class wise it is some way ahead.
good luck today

Mtoto could have made a very important decision with regards Cheltenham and the ground.

I`ve got my excuse anyways should things not go according to plan.

Mtoto is a very clever man so my stakes maybe will have to reduced.

Good luck,

Max/Determined

Thoughts were pretty much along the same lines.

In Wave Rock's race I felt there were one or two which would worry me, Demasta(long lay-off, although has won after a lay-off) and Eskleybook in particular.

Montayral is improving but both Roberty Bob(name bet for me??!) and Silver Streak have both won in this value of event or better. Roberty Bob's win was in a bog, so possibly isn't much help!

I'm sticking to the jumps till after the Whitbr....sorry attheraces meeting, prefer to have some of this season's form on the books before attacking the flat!

We all look at the same data, put sometimes our interpretation varies, even if our methodology aims in the same direction. I keep notes on the races I look at, sometimes I can see an error in a losing selction, sometimes I think 'how did I back that winner?'

Good luck guys!

Rob

Caught out by an improver in the 1.30. Flame Creek's presumably a chaser in the making if he's running in a novice hurdle this late in the season.

2.00 Oliver Cromwell didn't altogether surprise me, but I'd lost confidence in him as he'd missed out on easier opportunities.

2.30 Between us I think we pointed at the first three. Tucacas was a poor price, 2/1 would have been my minimum. I didn't think Monger Lane's Newbury form was up to much, but I was wrong!

Never mind, tomorrow's another day!

Rob

i think we were all stiffed by the clerk as to the going.

Todays Cheltenham going really changed things didn`t it ?

Artificial watering followed by rain sees the good to firm changed to the soft side of good.

Tucacas, Iris Royal and Wave Rock were all asked to give alot of actual weight away today. All were well placed ability rating wise and all had very good chances on the book yet thay were all found wanting. Wave Rock just wasn`t good enough but the other 2 were caught out up the hill.

`Factors` which we all mention (several of which are hidden to novices like me) are obviuosly very important in deciding whether to bet or not.

Seeing the change in conditions I didn`t invest on Tucacas because I took the view it may effect her chances.

I`d already considered the weight as a factor against IR so why the hell did I back Wave Hill ?

Added to that the weight factor was my main reason for fancying Montayral today and he was duly backed also.

He would have hacked up.

WEIGHT - YES IT IS A GREAT LEVELLER AND THE LAST RACE PROVED TO ME HOW WEIGHT CAN REALLY MAKE THE DIFFERENCE.

Any comments ?

Max,

I am not a fan of most clerk of the courses, they give the going that is likely to attract the most runners. However in this case I think it is a little unfair to have a go at him. Rain was forecast, it didn't come, what was he to do? If he hadn't watered he would have lost half the runners, he lost a lot anyway because the going was fast. The rain came at 1:15 after he had watered, because the ground was hard the rain ran down the hill and laid around the landing side of the 2nd last. Also the rain couldn't soak in and laid on the top few inches, that is why it looked as if they were kicking up soft ground. It was only the very top that was soft. In normal circumstances I would say look at the going allowance to confirm the going. However, today in the main you had lower class horse running in high grade races (don't tell Guest) so the allowance will not be a true reflection of the going. No matter what the form book says, don't use the form as being run on good to soft it is firm ground form.

Be lucky

fulham,

regardin g last question some are so much better that race fitness does not come into it(i think),
they are so much better they can still win even though not fully wound up.

determined,

sorry but my new job prevents me from being here all day if i see one i will try,

my horses today were tuccacas,king of happiness, and montrayal and i like others saw the rain and new i shouldnt have put them on but i did TEMPERAMENT ANOTHER LESSON TO LEARN the thing with tucacas is that i think its a filly as well.

MTOTO

you have mail

I don`t know whether you`ve seen any of of todays racing but your 3 horses certainly showed the different sides to racing, ie -

Tucacas and Montayral - one could easily have been working out their winnings but nothings guaranteed until past the post

KOH - never in doubt.

Cheers,

Determined.

Sorry I did answer your posting re Takamaka Bay and co. I wrote an answer and forgot to send it so hear goes again....

Takamaka Bay I didn't make him the bet there was another class/form horse in the race that I eliminated with one of my filters. In a handicap I will not back a horse that is rated more than 10 points lower than the top OR in the race (flat only). Looking at my records I also had bounce? against TB as his last run was a hard one at Ascot.

Analyser. I eliminated because of the above filter, Nimello was the top OR but didn't run.

Gracilis. Never was considered. For me he badly lacked class.

Re the weight mentioned stopping Iris Royal, could it not have been the hill and distance rather than weight? The same could be asked of Tucacas. Wave Rock needs a very strong pace to be at his best, who in the race could do the job?

Barney

Received your e-mail, still not sure I understand. If I do, how do you know the same negative dosn't apply to PK?

re-cheltenham going
take your point they are only human after all arn't they?
i have no problem watering,what got me though was thew fact that no announcement was made until after the 3rd race as to the change.
the only info we had was the mention that r.johnson thought it rode sticky after the first.
what was stopping the clerk with all his experience walking the course and officially announcing as soon as possible.
like you say a lot of horses were withdrawn earlier in the day but i wonder how many of them now wish they had let their horses run,its not the trainers i feel sorry for they can check for themselves and make their own decision's first hand,its the punters who rely on accurate information who were shafted yet again.

just saw your last post re iris royal-i do not think it was the hill or the distance that beat her,it was simply the fact that it was trying to give over 20lbs to a horse that was suited to the changing conditions.
do you think that without the rain that the result would still have been the same?i don't.