determined


no, the information that is needed to form an accurate opinon, based on facts, is there in the racing post, in black and white for all to see or not.

I believe Statajack has raised a very good point with regards Stretton.

In my opinion `S` has now proved he can perform with credit off his present h`cap mark and that he can carry weight.

His form is one of progression and the trainers future placing will be of keen interest to me.

*** there were several horses running at Ascot this week who were both up in class and off a much higher h`cap mark. I identified several of these during the past NH season and all got beat and of course I let them run.
So many things to remember. What did I do with the ones running at Ascot this past week ? I backed them. A very basic mistake and one which I will not forget again ***

As Fulham stated earlier there is so much on this thread that we can all learn from.

Cheers,

I give up.



Back to work tomorrow. At least I`m good at my job. I think.

Cheers,

dont give up


there is a real oportunity here today

look at the form at the same time as the comments

i hope it will fall into place for you

why we all dont make better use of the chat room on this thread is beyond me?.
mac.
determined dont give up .

[This message was edited by mactheknife on June 23, 2002 at 10:04 PM.]

Barney fancya chat tonight again?.
mac.

hi mac some dont want to chit chat

they peep and piss off probably to a more private forum

cant mate tonight just told the missus im for an early night.

had a very stressfull week and not much sleep

tomorrow at 730

well do a race


is that ok

well if thats the case we must be the poor relations then lol.

7.30 you`ll be lucky.

take care m8 sleep well.
mac.

at night

Barney.

Sorry mate, you are going to have to explain it to me. I can see how you can have ability without proven class. I'm only a country boy, how can you have a class performance without ability?

I know you said judge the performance, how do you do that without assessing the worth of the beaten horses? If a horse wins by 10 lengths, you have to evaluate the beaten horses to judge the performance. You say judge those races using OR's I don't have to an expert has done it for me. I except the expert can make mistakes, that is why I always check, and if I think he has I adjust his figures. Think he has when he gave Hawk Wing a higher OR than Rock of Gibraltar for the Guineas run. I except HW had the bad luck to be drawn on the wrong side. How do we know ROG would not have pulled out more if they had been closer together?

Don't understand your remark about the private forums. The people I know that belong to them, do a lot to try and help this thread. I don't use the chat room because it is to easy to upset people with the written word. It's hard enough to get the words right, even when there is time to think about it with postings like this.

Be Lucky

hi mtoto,


have you rated those four races yet? tell me what you think.

or have you not bothered and want it spelling out?

also read what is said rate them WITHOUT OR.



ALSO FOR YOU, IF YOU THINK THERE IS MORE THEN TO PROGRESS YOU MUST PUT OFFICIAL RATINGS TO BED,IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE IT CRACKED WHY BOTHER CONTINUING THE SEARCH?

[This message was edited by Barney on June 24, 2002 at 06:37 AM.]

Mtoto
The "dont ask a horse...previously done" probably comes from Braddock, as I say, I haven't read much VDW. What I had in mind was the idea of reducing the element of gamble, particularly about whether or not a horse will get the distance, the fact that none of the horses is proved at the distance in no way changes the fact that a horse is itself unproven.

Statajack
I first noticed mention of Postmark in posts of yours on the 16th about Whitbarrow. It was a later post to the effect that- the Postmark ratings are confused so leave the race- that I had in mind. I've looked through your later posts and cant see it so it must be by somebody else. My apologies for this inaccurate statement and it's implications concerning yourself.

There have been a few postings about the fact that this thread has been wondering off the point, and I'm probably to blame as much as anybody.

One problem that I can see with analysing VDW is that there doesn't seem to be a common way of approaching the evaluation of a race. We've had mentioned of using class and consistency, class by means of the Roushayd method, using speed figures in various ways and probably a few other approaches that I can't recall.

There are some well worn examples that have been discussed at length. Some selections I would have agreed with, others such as Prominent King and Rifle Brigade I couldn't have gone along with at all, but the approach encourages forming of your own opinion, and in these cases mine differs from others.

I've been cutting some of the best posts from this thread and putting them all together. I'll go through them to see what I can learn once the wheat has been sorted from the chaff.

I thought Hedgehog's use of ratings for race comments was very clever. I think his idea adds quite a lot to the weight of selections and I have been using them to aid the selection process.

Here is an application of VDW to one of today's race. Others probably won't be keen on this method but I'd be interested in knowing what people think of the approach.

8.10 Yarmouth 6f B class 93 (0-95) Stakes(5 run)

Top 3 Consistency
Bright Edge(8), Entrap(10), Simianna(11)

Top 3 Last Time Out Class
Kelsey Rose(490), Simianna(290), Poyle Magic(232)

Top 3 Ability
Bright Edge(82), Entrap(52), Simianna(51)

Only contender common to all three groups is Simianna.

Simianna was 4th of 28 over 5f in class 290 on June 18, ran on well final furlong, nearest finish (comment rating of 3 on Hedgehog's scale)
Before that was 4th of 9 over 6f in class 155 on June 8, kept on under pressure.
The latter race suggests 6f is no problem, and Simianna has won on both good/firm and soft, so watered firm ground should be OK. Simianna is 5/2 in RP forecast, Entrap is 11/10 forecast favourite.

I've backed Simianna. What do Forum
Members think?

Rob

Rob,
Each of VDWs methods was set out the way they were for a good reason.You can try each one of them on a race but if you mix and match you may get a distorted picture. With 3 year olds he stated that a non weight influenced time rating (he used Split Second) should be used alongside the ability ratings as a measure of class because potentially good horses may not have raced/won enough for the ability rating to be an adequate guide alone. If you apply split second's ratings to the field a different picture starts to emerge which does not give Simianna as a good thing. Best of luck with it though.
regards,

the most probable is ENTRAP the only negative for me is the ground,and for that reason i,ll let it run

8.10 yarm

this is how i see it,a slight variation to your idea.

ability

1.bright edge 4500
2.entrap 4333
3.kelsey rose 2791
4.simianna 1214
5.poyle magic 1000

there has been plenty of discusssion as to the best way to rate for ability,my favoured option is to take into account win and place money won.there are many who dismiss this idea and only calculate win prize money but i think this can be very misleading as to a horses true ability in future races.lets take a look at this example of an imaginary race-

5f 10k race
the winner (horse a)going into the race has an ability rating of say 400(4k prize money won from 10 runs)after picking up this 10 k prize its new a/r stands at 454.
now horse b who for the sake of arguments finishes 4th beaten 3/4 lengh's behind horse a picks up no points for a gallent effort and is re callucated next run on 363(assuming its previous runs/wins were the same as horse a)
at first glance without all the previous facts who would you back next time?what if horse b was hampered?or had any one of numerable other mishaps that commonly occur.
it can be argued that the same thing might happen to a horse that is just run out of a place but you have to draw a line somewhere and i would much rather take the places read litterally and not just the winner.

getting back to the race-where rob used the last run to rate the class ran in i prefer to use the last three runs and average them out,i also take into account the finishing positions from those last three runs (averaged out) and use a percentage reduction table to award a class rating-e.g horse a last three runs were in a 10k finished 3rd/5k finished 2nd/6k finished 4th the rating would be worked as such-10k+5k+6k=21k divided by the ammount of sample (3)=7k so the class rating so far for horse a would be 7k,now we look at the finishing positions 3rd/2nd/4th added up and divided again by the sample(3)=3.so the horses average finishing position from its last three runs is 3 and its average race class from last three runs is 7k,so looking at the percentage reduction table we take away 30%(3)from 7k giving a final class rating for this horse based on its last three runs/performance of 4900.

8.10 yarm-class ratings

kelsey rose 12000
simianna 9900
bright edge 8000
entrap 5600
poyle magic 1800

from the above list you can clearly see that on previous known form poyle magic looks totally outclassed.the f/c fav entrap also does not fare to well but we must remember that this is a 3yo stakes race where improvement is very much anticipated,if this was for example a 4yo+ h/c where the fav was not expected to improve then i would almost certainly discount it on its position on the above list alone.

going/distance-6f firm

entrap won dist/placed going
bright edge won dist/won going
poyle magic ? dist/won going
kelsey rose placed dist/won going
simianna ? dist/won going

as you can see there are doubts surrounding poyle magic and simianna with the distance,i think it also should be noted that entrap's trainer stated that it likes "nice" ground,take that to mean what?good with a bit of cut,maybe but what about firm tonight.

consistency-whats it worth?

for the sake of the purists among you i have included the consisitency rating for all runners.this subject has been touched upon more than once and i would ask as to its true worth in the context of winner finding.there can be no doubt as to its usefulness when used correctly in identifying form horses but and it is a big but CONSISTANCY IS ONLY RELEVENT TO THE CLASS IT WAS ACHIEVED IN.that is to say you may have found a potential form horse with the magical form figures 111/112/121 but what is the use of that if it was achieved in a E rated h/c and the race you are looking at is listed class?.

TOPSPEED
how much does the average punter take notice of this?i know there are members who swear by the topspeed rating and under certain conditions i tend to agree with that,the a/w springs to mind but i think it depends entirely on the distance of the race.the longer the distance the more i tend not to place to much emphasis on the topspeed ratings.
it should also be mentioned that certain course are extremely biased against horses with good topspeed figures most notebly carlisle and windsor h/c's,by the same token ayr,bath,epsom and nottingham non h/c's have a strong bias in favour of horses with good topspeed figures.

again getting back to the race-consistancy

bright edge 8
entrap 10
simianna 11
kelsey rose 16
poyle magic 26

conclusion-

from the above tables i think we can safely leave out poyle magic who as said before is competing out of its depth.

kelsey rose could be a dark one coming out top class wise and third on ability abeit some way behind the leaders,it has been placed at the distance and won on the going but all in all i will also disgard this one.

simianna purely on class ratings this horse should have no problem but looking at its ability rating way down there at the bottom puts me right off,i think it will have trouble containing bright edge tonight a horse it beat a short head a few runs back.the distance is also another negative for this one campaigned mainly over 5f as yet to show its best over tonights distance.

entrap as said before if no improvement was expected then this would also be opposed but with this 3yo only having a handful of runs just how much it will improve is anybodys guess.the trip will not be a problem but i have a sneaky doubt as to its ability on this ground.
if you are like me and much prefer to back a horse on what it has already shown and not on reputation then you will have to leave this one alone in favour of-

bright edge beaten 3 lenghs by entrap at kempton but getting 6lbs tonight for that defeat,the selection according to the post was"trapped out wide"that day but still managed to pull well clear of the remaining runners with entrap.bright edge has won at 6f and more importantly won on firm ground.
so after all of that bright edge is my selection.


max

Hi Barney,

I will try to answer your last question first. I keep looking because I don't think for one moment, I know it all. Who knows when that little snippet will come along, and help the whole thing make more sense?

Sorry, I thought you said try and sort those races out using OR's. As I have said you need a base of some sort to put a value on any race. I can't see how you can take a race in isolation and say this is good/bad or indifferent, without some thing to judge it by (no matter what the penalty value is)

The Coronation Stakes assessment.
Couple of things bother me. Why do you think Sophisticat can act on firm going? The only time she ran on it was on dirt, big difference than turf. She is breed to run on dirt so it was no surprise she ran a fair race. Was it any better than fair? I don't think so. 5th beaten 6 lengths, ran on one paced. The only thing about this race is the value, but the prize money is a lot higher in America. For me based on what she has achieved on the track, a Group 2 filly at best. The only reason I can see to expect her to beat Zeda this time is, Z MAY not have recovered after a hard race in the Irish Guineas. That would have to be an opinion, until after the race. However she did run a better than fair race in the Irish Guineas on going she didn't like, still to finish within 7 lengths of the winner. For me that is class, and she was eased, so could have been closer (possibly)
You say Gossamer's form deteriorated after her first run. That can only be an opinion as I can't find the facts to back it up. For me she beat all that was put in front of her,
Improving in race value and on time, winning a Group 1 and 3. Gossamer ran a class race in defeat in the English Guineas, by getting within 6 lengths of the winner Who confirmed the form in her next race. I except there was a big doubt about her being good enough to win the Ascot race on firm going, but to suggest the going was not the reason for her defeat is a very brave call. Then to expect Sophisticat to reverse the form with Z and win the race! Wish I could read the form book like that.

I know horses can't read. They don't have to, they know in the last 2 furlongs if they have been raised in class. When the pressure keeps coming.

Be Lucky

Well that seems to have started an in depth discussion. I think that is what a few members were looking for.

Just to show how much opinion matters the three of us have each come to a different conclusion.

I take Statajack's point regarding speed figures for 3yos. However I note that all the contestants in this race have run at least 6 times, hence their level of form will be better established than some. Using the Topspeed figures still puts Simianna in the top 3, but Topspeed is possibly not flavour of the month, although with Dave Edwards at the helm I think matters have improved and will continue to improve.

Max - I must admit that I would rate Bright Edge as the greatest danger, I think Entrap is under-priced. I have placed quite a high weighting on Simianna's Ascot form and having put the money down I'm committed!

I feel that this little exercise has been very interesting.Let's now see how the race pans out!

Rob