YOU DONT KNOW MY NAME

MTOTO

while you have gone quieti dont think about words anymore they mean nothing,i,think about puctuation

Three races of Class C or better worth a look today, one at Kempton and two at Salid=sbury. I've given the Cstakes race aT Hamilton a miss as it looks quite poor standard.

8.05 Kempton

Betting is quite tight for this one and after applying the criteria I can't find a selection.

3.10 Salisbury 8f C 70 Hcap (8 run)

First 5 in betting forecast
Amoras, Finished Article, Indian Plume, Oakley rambo, Muchea

Top 3 Consistency
Amoras(5), Finished Article(7), Indian Plume(12)

Top 3 Last time class
Muchea(696), Indian Plume(174), Amoras(71)

Top 3 Ability
Muchea(167), Amoras(53), Indian Plume(49)

AMORAS is common to all three groups, stayed on last time(2 pts on Hedgehog's scale).
This one is vulnerable here as he takes a step up in class, top rated horse for his last two races have been 72 then 80, whereas top-weight here, Calcutta is on 92. 12lb rise in class is asking a lot of one whose form is well established.

Interesting point here is that Max's idea of averaging last 3 race classes instead of Last time Out Class might give a more accurate picture. Similarly, I suspect earnings per start rather than average wins might tell a different story. What do you reckon Max?

4.10 Salisbury 12f C 124 Hcap (8 run)

First five in betting
Sentinel, Kalambari, Persian Lass, Sir Brastias, Duke Of Earl(jt 5th), Imtihan(jt 5th)

Top 3 Consistency
Sentinel(3), Duke of Earl(7), Kalambari(8)

Top 3 Last Time Class
Persian Lass(2030), Duke Of Earl(106), Sentinel(46), Imtihan(46)

Top 3 Ability
Imtihan(43), Persian Lass(41), Duke Of Earl(36)

DUKE OF EARL is common to the three groups, and also 2nd rated by Topspeed. There are some lightly raced types here, and I feel that Duke Of Earl may be better suited by some cut rather than today's fast ground, he's a galloper rather than a quickener.

Well nothing definite to latch on to today. Those are my thoughts, what do the rest of think?

Rob

i will give those a go and post up after the football.

consistancy

1.sentinel 3
2.kalambari 8
3.duke of earl 7
4.sir brasias 9
5.imtihan 11
6.persian lass 16
=.playback 16
8.fortunate dave 20

all well and good but in what CLASS

1.persian lass 31950(down to hit and hope by the trainer)
2.duke of earl 5500
3.sir brasias 3010
4.sentinel 2666
5.imtihan 2600
6.kalambari 2409
7.playback 1800
8.fortunate dave 360

so far you can see duke of earl both consistant and achieving this in a better class,things are already starting to look dark for poor old dave.

ability

1.kalambari 2000
2.duke of earl 1750
3.sir brasias 1600
4.sentinel 1333
=.imtihan 1333
6.persian lass 1300
7.fortunate dave 1000
8.playback 750

maybe dodgy daves making a late comeback,here we see that playback not only scoring badly in the class list also is worse in on the ability table.it is also worth mentioning that allthough persian lass topped the previous table it bears not relation as to its actual ability.kalambari who came in at number 6 on class not surprisingly tops the ability list this would suggest that the horse has done what was expected of it previously in other words its not out of the ordinary but is a genuine animal.

going/distance

kalambari ? ?
persian lass ? ?
duke of earl yes yes
sir brasias ? ?
sentinel ? yes
playback ? ?
imtihan ? yes
fortunate dave yes ?

so many ? so little answers-what we can take from this is that duke of earl will go on the ground and get the trip for a horse that has scored so well previously it all bodes well as to its chances.

trainer current/track form

kalambari yes
persian lass no
duke of earl no at track/yes current
sir brastias no
sentinel no at track/yes current
playback yes
imtihan yes at track/no current
fortunate dave yes

jockey current/track form

kalambari yes(excellent 3yo jockey)
persian lass yes
duke of earl no at track/yes current
sir brastias yes
sentinel no at treack/yes current
playback yes
imtihan no at track/yes current
fortunate dave no

race profile

3yo h/c

first 3 in betting account for 61% of the winners in this race.male horses have by far the best record and the horses carrying top weight also wi n more than there share.placed lto form is also a major plus and two times distance winners fit the win profile.

conclusion

the race profile fits sentinel like a glove and looks by far the most likely winner.an improving colt already twice a distance winner may well take this on the way to better things however at the forcasted 2/1 and with a 7lb penalty to overcome i will pass over in favour of duke of earl,forcasted 4 times the price it is proven on trip and going has been consistant above the class of todays opposition and has shown by its ability rating that its a serious contender to win races,the only down side is the trainer/jockeys strike rate at the course but i suppose i cant have everything.therefore i take duke of earl to beat sentinel with kalambari to run on for 3rd.

Max

I'm impressed! There's a lot of sound work in that analysis. Now let's see how the race pans out.

Rob

hi everyone

310 salisbury

not much improvement left in many of these

consistency rating

amoras 5,finished article 7,dennis our menace 8

form

on inspection of the form of all concerned dennis our menace can be dissmised.

into the equation comes indian plume and oakly rambo

using consistency as a guide all still figure in the equation

conclusion

i cant find enough flaws in the form of any of those four to dismiss them lightly 3/10 at fp that one wins.one might get 1/2 or 4/6 if you look around for better odds.

salsbury is a very stiff test so why bother the other races may be easier.

the other salisbury race is no better

but for a laugh i think fortunate dave will finish in front of duke of earl

dodgy dave may well have the last laugh on us all

3.10 Salisbury

My reservations about Amoras' chance in this class proved to be justified. The winner, Calcutta, had not been in sparkling form recently, but is a proven winner at this level.

Rob

help needed


can anyone tell me what the difference is between raceform flat annuals and the timeform flat annuals?? Apart from the price that is.


Thanks in anticipation.

raceform flat annual 2001 due for publication around 2008 if their online form is anything to go by.at noon today they were still showing ascot form.

well max

the laughs on me

fortunate dave was last.you only just beat it though.

Barney,

Timeform annuals are not 'form books' like their Raceform counterparts.
Whereas Raceform annuals show all the actual races with positions, comments, prices etc, Timeform only provide an 'essay' for each horse together with a summary of what the horse acheived. They also give their interpetation of the horses character together with their final seasonal rating.

If you e-mail me then I will send you a sample page from a Timeform annual that will probably explain better.

Cheers

crock,

thanks for that i get the picture.

they are not much use for what i need.

thanks again

determined you have mail

330n

looks like a good thing

HAVE A VERY GOOD LOOK, ALL IS NOT WHAT IT SEEMS

3.30 10f C 63 class Handicap (10 run)

Top 5 five in Forecast
Eastern Breeze, Pasithea, Flight Sequence, Linning Wine, Port Moresby

Top 3 consistency
Flight Sequence(5), Linning Wine(5), Pasithea(11)

Top 3 Last Time Out Class
Pasithea(290), Flight Sequence(213), Linning Wine(85)

Top 3 Ability
Flight Sequence(85), Eastern Breeze(59), Pasithea(55)

Common to the three groups are Pasithea and Flight Sequence. Pasithea's form is solid but FLIGHT SEQUENCE strikes me as one they haven't got to the bottom of yet. A decent battling win at Redcar last time in a similar sort of race. Conditions to suit. Linning Wine was in front of Flight Sequence earlier in the season, but the latter was probably in front too soon then (led 3f out).
Flight Sequence for me, any thoughts?

4.00 6f C class 60 Stakes (5 run)

Top 3 Consistency
Rellim(7), Lupine(15), Roundtree(17)

Top 3 L.T.O. Class
Lupine(155), Affaire Royale(85), Zietunzeen(73)

Top 3 Ability
Zietunzeen(113), Roundtree(40), Lupine(36)

Roundtree looks vulnerable here. Considered good enough to run in the 1000 Guineas, but form has tailed off since then. Zietunzeen has a big ability rating but recent form isn't up to winning this.Affaire royale's form is not particularly inspiring and Rellim doesn't look anywhere near good enough. The selection is LUPINE whose last run does not look inspiring. However that was on good/soft, whereas her win and decent performance here last June were on good/firm, the going today.

Hi Rob,

I too have FLIGHT SEQUENCE as the class/form horse in this race but I'm a little concerned that the Redcar race last time had a top OR of 83 in a 0-105 race, this creates sufficient doubt in my mind to make this a no play race for me.

Cheers

consistency

1.flight sequence 5
=.linning wine 5
3.shafeeq 6
4.pasithea 11
5.port moresby 12
6.macadamia 13
7.eastern image 17
8.the glen 19
9.pinchincha 21
10.bourgeois 22

class

1.flight sequence 10600
2.pasithea 8820
3.linning wine 5355
4.the glen 4710
5.pinchincha 4680
6.shafeeq 4560
7.eastern breeze 4000
8.port moresby 3600
9.macadamia 3080
10.bourgeois 2490

ability

1.pinchincha 4746
2.shafeeq 4166
3.flight sequence 3666
4.pasithea 3000
5.bourgeois 2700
6.linning wine 2333
7.the glen 1916
8.eastern breeze 1700
9.port moresby 1517
10.macadamia 750

going/distance

all of the runners have shown some sembalence of placed form on the forcasted going.with regards the distance all ok apart from question marks over macadamia and bourgeois.

race profile-3yo+h/c at course

1st 3 in betting win 47% which brings in eastern breeze/pasithea/flight sequence this could change with the open look of the betting forcast.

the percentage call is to only look at the first five in the market this brings in the top three and linning wine/port moresby givivng you 63% of the previous 17 years winners of this race type.

horses that are running again within 28 days of their previous win are two times more likely to win than those that havent won within the specified time period,this gives us pasithea and flight sequence.

again the majority of the 17 previous winners went into this race with lto placings of either 1st or 2nd the remaining lto places were 3rd/4th/5th or 6th.this throws up a list of-eastern breeze,port moresby,the glen,flight sequence,linning wine and shafeeq.

runners whose lto run was on the all weather should be opposed,the only horse this applies to is port moresby.

horses running again within 7 days are two times more likely to win this race.two on this list port moresby and pinchincha

lto runs on certain courses also throw up some interesting facts and horses whose lto run was at chepstow/redcar and kempton have an enviable record when next running at newmarket.those that qualify in this race are eastern breeze/pinchincha/flight sequence and shafeeq.

this seasons form

code to this is + progressive/-deteriation/*levelling

bourgeois _
pasithea +
easterb breeze *
port moresby *
the glen -
pinchincha *
flight sequence+
linning wine +
macadamia ?(dont know what to make of it)
shafeeq +

conclusion

of the likely contenders that show prominently on the lists who also fit the race profile and are showing progressive form FLIGHT SEQUENCE looks to be the one with PASITHEA second.
i do not think either of these two have stopped improving especially the former who i confidently anticipate will win this race.

because of the r/p online trainer/jock form being down i have had to exclude this part of the analysis but lady herries is currently running at 12.9% overall at the track from the last 6 seasons.i also forgot to mention that with the exception of eastern breeze all trainers pass on current 14 day form.

fingers crossed.
max.