From another viewpoint the betting appears to view the favourite as a hotpot ie 4 to 5 times the price of the 2 and 3rd in the betting. On what Rob/Max and others have said the respective odds seem out of kilter with the evidence to date

Re speed figures I understand the arguments - but overall I dont use them as it seems to unscientific the process to me - after all although times are taken for cross country (running ) races they are rarely used for comparison purposes - but they are on the track - where things are standard (comparison with aw)

hi mtoto

the example illustrated shows the key factor which runs through all VDW's selections that i have looked at and is the kingpin when used in comparison to other runners.

vdw would have selected that horse,its that clear.

its unseen factors, by most, are the same factor that was present in all the selections that i e- mailed you last time.

i can tell that you are not aware of this factor by your post,although in the past you have said you know it but cant say, if you cant come to the same conclusion you dont.

you have told me what you think about the races but i saw it different and posted the selection before the race and that zendas form was much better also.so its not hindsight.

its no use trying to put your method onto vdw's ideas as it will hinder progress.As he said in the early stages forget everything and start again.

VDW illustrated the whole concept of betting,which races to bet in, how to read a card,how to numerically narrow the field, how to find real form and class, how to stake, how to bet if more than one horse is in the race, how to eliminate the losing run.you cant improve them they are right.

i have put that race up in good faith,that those who look hard enough will find what is there,
if you cant see it its not my fault, dont work out why you would not have selected it but work out why i did, OR ANY OF THE EXAMPLES THAT VDW GAVE. they are not trick questions, would you bet them or not? THEY PROVIDE THE ANSWER. AS DOES SOPHISTICAT.

810y

can i play?


c/f

bright edge
entrap
simianna

form

bright edge - career best performance when 2nd to entrap,good run next time,still in form lto but doesn't like the ground as much- no improvement seen.

entrap-race when 7th last year was out of form but competed against some which this year have been stars its form this year has shown steady improvement its last race was consistent although no improvement was made on the faster ground(its reached its limit)

simiana- ran into the ground as a 2yr old over the minimum(but not that good)improved in the second half of last year, but all the others had run into form by then.Pushed roushayd style to try to get some improvement but its not there.it never was.

kelsy rose-very highly tried the trainer doesnt know what hes doing or hes a plot master.has been consisitent in the past but now badly out of form.


the race has no natural front runner, whoever start out with it will lose.

of the two with the class for this one has beaten the other and then improved since there is no reason in the book why bright edge can beat entrap.



will just get the tracksuit bottoms back on

a better PRE race analysis i have yet to find.

I have watched you move from dutching (f/2f) and other methods to primarily VDW so you would probably be the best person to ask this question. Do you think that VDW has overwhelmingly changed your strike rate and profitability (obviously for the better?). If so where would you start knowing what you know now? I have got a couple of booklets (Jock Bingham's, Systematic Betting). Would going through you breakdown's of races be a better place than some of the old races?

Thanks

Jack

RE: 8.10 Yarmouth

Well at least I started the ball rolling on this one, a race which created some interesting discussion, and some different opinions. For what it's worth I'm still happy with my decision to select Simianna, and in the same circumstances I'd come to the same conclusion. Half a length is an acceptable margin of error, though I didn't see the race and haven't seen the race comments yet.

It illustrates the VDW conundrum very well. We all have the same data to use, but each offer a different interpretation of that data.

Rob

Professional,
The thing with vdws use of speed figures is that they are used to measure ability alongside the normal ability rating for 3 yos and arent just a rating in the normal way. They have to be level weighted as opposed to topspeed which adjusts for weight carried. Vdw used split seconds figures and applying them to Simianna's race yesterday would have put it some way behind Entrap and level with Bright edge. Having looked at the race in this way would simianna still appear the likely winner?
Personally, Im not a great fan of them either as a rating method but if I go about looking at races and doing things differently to those as advised by vdw, I am using statajack methodology and not vdw methodology. If I lose, who is to blame, me or vdw?
regards,

Statajack

thanks for that (and the explanation)

I was just looking at it from a price perspective - even if Entrap was the selection would people bet it at that price .

On your last paragraph - well whose to say that vdw was right on everything - yours might just be a different interpretation of vdw that most people use - and if it works - why change it

Good luck

anybody up for another today?

Sorry Max I'm only considering class C or better races.....must stick to my resolution! The best on offer today is a pretty moderate class D handicap, and most of the races are c**p!

Tomorrow there are a couple of decent handicaps at Salisbury, and one at Kempton. It's a pity the Carlisle Bell isn't a class C event, I think it should be.

Rob

Rob North,I did see the Simianna race and despite the margin,it was well well beaten,by Entrap.
Max,today at Beverley 3.15(for you swish).There are 3 intersting runners Swynford Pleasure,Noble Pasao and Ceralbi.I will be bold and say nothing else can win.I will be bolder and say that Swynford Pleasure will win,maybe a dutch with NP?

Pipedreamer

Stop sitting on the fence .... !
Re Swynford - can totally understand your reasoning - although his winning ratio is rather poor - although of course you could say then hes due for a win!
M Reeks again doesnt win often and is getting on but actually didnt run to badly last time and in my 5 minute form study would be on a shortlist if I had one !

allthough not a vdw type bet i have a e/w interest in sheer focus.

also what about bulawayo in the 3.45,thrown in or what?

Hello all
Due to being a novice at both VDW & FORM reading
i'm pleased to see my 3 probables also selected,
in the 3.15 BEV.
SWYNFORD PLEASURE,McCILLICUDY REEKS,CERALBI
I've decided to go with CERALBI due to the other
2's win ratio.
know watch one of the other 2 win
keep up the excellant postings I'm learning slowly
but surely
thanks to all
paul

I would have preferred to see a little more analysis of the field in this race to show how you arrived at your shortlist. Some members have been complained that this post is just becoming a tipping thread, so if selections were related to VDW criteria I think that we would all benefit.

Rob

i think we all took heed of your earlier posting and deceided not to play today due to poor standard of racing.
i have not looked into any race indepth today,just a passing interest........apart from the 2.30 where ashbourne caught my eye.

hi senguptaj,

if i knew three years ago what i know now i would be cruising round the world by now.

is started dutching a while ago and always made that pay but never had any big ambitions just liked the pocket money.

a while after i joined this board i took interest in what people were saying about vdw.

i bought all his booklets and then all j binghams and found in them a lot of what i was already doing with regard to multiple betting and staking.
upto then i thought that there were only a few people doing it, i had never known it was in print.

i fell for it hook line and sinker straight away.

i tried to progress with the booklets but after a month it became clear they mean nothing without the form books so i bought all them as well.

you start to scratch your head from day one with prominent king.

i was lucky in that i had an accident at work and was off for three or four months and spent this time practicing on every race every day and then two hours the next day working out why i had got it wrong.all the while going through the examples and betting as well.slowly all the pieces started to fall into place.placed to win was the easiest for me but at the time i didnt know the factor that underpinned the selection's

the first time i used it in anger was with moscow flyer.i had backed this before, but using the numerical picture.

the numerical picture does work but the selections anly came along once or twice a month and i was used to betting upto 5 or 6 races a day

then two or three months ago due to posts from other members and e-mails something clicked.

with posts i put up now will probably look like gobledegook, but they are based on all vdw work that i have come to understand.

a balance between all factors.

i dont think that the posts i put on will help anyone new to vdw, they are put on to encourage people to find out for themselves whats really there.

enough waffle

get the golden years and the form books( that is a task in its own right)i sometimes forget how hard it is to get those!!!never mind understand it.

there are more direct pointers on here than vdw gave but they are mostly the same that he gave just phrased differently.

you cant do it without form books you will get glimpses of what is possible without them though, it depends how far you want to go.


GET STUCK IN.

What an eloquent reply. Thanks very much for spending the time writing your reply. I actually have the Golden Years (edited by Tony Peach).

I am afraid I might be bugging you for a while with qiuestions etc. Tell me to p**s off whenever you want but until you do; which race (formbook) do you think gave you the most clues, maybe I should have asked is the simplest to pick up the 'hidden' meanings. If the hunt is going to take months then I would prefer to get the most useful first.

Thanks again

Jack

to start with

jumps 76-77,77-78,78-79,79-80,80-81
flat 76,77,78,79,80,81

this should get you through the golden years.

a good source of top qualty books is john pickering in yorkshire.He is a very nice chap and will get you exactly what you want(within a month in my experience) 01439-770931.

happy hunting

Cheers Barney. I will give him a ring. I will mention your name may be you will get a discount next time you are after something!!