usefull pointers those horses, VW had had a hard season previously and when the big day came he couldn't find enough, given a more leisurly time that season he went ready to win. the trainer must have really wanted that race, or the owner's.

Can you tell me, was the that letter ever put in print in its entirety?

Determined

If its any help, as far as I can tell Swiss Maid did not run as a 2yo (certainly seems to be no record of a run in the 1977 Form Book).

Cistus ran four times: first, a close 3rd in a 6f class 20 at Newmarket; then a win in a 6f class 11 at Newbury; then a win in a 7f class 39 at Goodwood, and finally 2nd in a 1m Group 1 (class 234) at Longchamps.

Statajack

Good call Re G hall
Somebody may comment

I cant
Have drunk too many cans

Thanks for the 2yo details.

Guest, if you're reading this as a guest, you could always start one of the 'Private Topics' threads over here and invite in only those that you wish, to discuss the ins and outs of VDW. Perhaps not I see the PT button seems to have disappeared!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cheers IMP

is the Private Topics button???

cheers IMP

Mtoto - Alasha was the class/form horse. Bear in mind what VDW said about 3yos and his ability rating.

Determined - Swiss Maid was unraced at 2 finishing 5th (promoted to 4th) in a group 3 at Epsom FTO. She had already finished 2nd to Cistus in the Lupe at Goodwood in May before meeting that filly again in October. She had a lower rating than Cistus, but VDWs crosschecks sorted out the best form.

IMP - I've no option really but to be even more cautious than usual with what I say. I still think it strange to suddenly make a private forum and it's contents public. I fully understand the reasons for going public, but surely a fresh start should have been made to protect the privacy of the previously posted material ?

Guest says VDW's crosschecks sorted out how Swiss Maid was a better bet than Cistus. By his own admission it took him quite a while to come to his final conclusions re vdw (which he has kindly revealed to us) and as he said, he also received some help, but just how did G. Hall work all this out?
Bearing in mind what evidence he had been given up to that date, for him to find those 4 horses was pretty good work (even if of course, ability ratings were the key to finding them).
The ability ratings play a big part in the methodology, the biggest part even, but not alone. They may sort out the class/form horse but there needs to be more. How could Prominent King for example be the class/form horse if the whole concept had not yet existed/been revealed?
It seems to me that a retrospective analysis is being applied to PK and that there is possibly a simpler explanation. That explanation would also be consistent (no pun intended) with vdw revealing the consistency method first before moving on to ability ratings, then to the class/form horse, then to Roushayd etc.
You have to teach people to walk before they can run, so what did PK have that its rivals did not? Or for that matter "The old Fellow", or Little Owl, Sunset Christo, Kenlis, Cool Gin, Wing and a Prayer, or even Pegwell Bay?
regards,

do you think that VDW'S whole approach to his instructions were influenced by the letter from "WIN,brighton" to HOTFORM ?

Determined

Statajack raises a very pertinent question re Mr Hall's selections, for while I feel sure the ability rating was part and parcel of VDW's approach at that time, there is certainly no basis whatsover for believing that it was part of Mr H's, and he'd have done amazingly well to have discovered it for himself from the material available at that point.

A possibility is that Mr H did not use the Sporting Life for his forecast, and thus was evaluating a different five from those at the head of the Life's forecast. In which case, Mr H may not even have considered Cistus, as not being among the three most consistent. Take Cistus away ...

I don't, of course, know whether the above is on the right lines, but its a possibility. And it is clear from other examples that VDW did not always use the Life's forecast, but sometimes the Chronicle or Mail's, so who knows what Mr H used. (One of these days I'll check other forecasts to test whether the above seems plausible.)

Fulham, Guest and Statjack,

I`d like to come back to Swiss Maid but for the rest of the morning I`ll be concentrating on todays York meeting and the 4.15 Hamilton where I believe there is a very interesting runner.

That said, heavy going at Hamilton doesn`t help.

Cheers,

The novice has another attempt at identifying the class/form horses.


2.20 1st Jardines Lookout
2nd Give Notice

2.55 1st Nayef
2nd Golan

3.30 1st Bandari
2nd Bollin Eric

4.00 a moderate bunch for the prize money

5.05 1st Bond Boy
2nd Budelli

**** any comments would be very much appreciated ****

Now for the hard work !

Cheers,

Good luck with the 4:15, it looks too competitive for me. If you twisted my arm I would go for Island Light, with Madeline Bassett and Tony Tie also in the picture. About York, the only one I'm considering is Bangalore in the 2:20, however, both your c/f horses look threatening.

At York today, several races are worthy of attention.

In the 2.20 Jardines Lookout is the class/form horse with Bangalore having been up against lesser horses though performing very well. The class/form horse was a narrow second last year.

2.55 has a slight conflict with Nayef and Golan closely matched on ability and a close run last time to back this up. Nayef had been below par up until his last race and showed he is better in the second half of the season through lat years exploits. Golan seems to go well fresh, but he does have the better overall form. I'd expect Golan to confirm placings, but not at the prices on offer.

3.30 Bandari is the clear class/form horse, but unless the layers get generous he will be very short.

In the 5.05, it proves to be tricky to isolate the class/form horse. By my calculations I make Budelli the class/form horse with Talbot Avenue 2nd on class/form. Budelli faces a similiar situation to Canny Danny though and will probably struggle. Talbot Avenue is attempting to step up to six furlongs again, but he has improved recently.

I've looked further into the 2:20 and Bangalore doesn't convince me as a bet. If I had to choose I would go for Give Notice but for me there is no betting race today at either meeting, not unusual at the beginning of the week.

Im not usre the golan/nayef is a 2 horse race - they both had a hard race last time over longer - and you have a good miler moving up. Should be interesting.
2 johnston hotpots - yet his record as a trainer here isnt great
nothing to get excited about re betting today

I know you will all be tied up with York But

G Hall
The man that claimed to have found the so called Key or Missing Link.

Vdw wrote
It was all there but a vital factor was not deliberately pointed out .It is there for you to see and was not covered up,but until you approach the problem in the right way the odds are it will remain obscure.
IT IS SO SIMPLE
Once you find it everything will be so clear you will wonder how on earth you missed it and

YOU WILL HAVE THE SAME HORSES AS MYSELF

Little owl, Sunset Christo, Gay Chance,Kenlis
These were 5 races which the text indicated for application of the method as I use it and you will see everything is true When you find that MISSING LINK

The Above is what VDW wrote

He also told his readers to go back as far as you like looking for the form horses in the first 3/4 in the betting forecast
The only other factor in the exercise was that the indicated horse should have a 3 point advantage on the ability rating.

Go back as far as you like he said
The task will serve you well, and
after you have done this Figure out why Stray Shot and Zamandra are the only horses to Bet on out of the six horses he gave on boxing day.

When you fully understand the significance of that you will start to achieve a consistently high percentage of winners.

So the missing piece that was not deliberately pointed out
What is it
SP’s ?
Fav Lto ?
2nd numerical picture ?

A combination of the above ?

It wouldnt appear to be all that complicated

Further thoughts on today – York.

The 3 Group races today I believe offer no great value.

Jardines Lookout, a horse which doesn`t impress physically has definitely shown improved form this season. Lightly raced this year and given his physique is possibly the way to race him. His 2nd in this race last year in my opinion is good enough to win here. He`ll have the fast pace required and on all known form he`s the most probable winner. The 5/2 however is not considered value.

Both Darasim and Cover Up in my opinion are open to further improvement and are considered lively dangers hence no value in JL.



I agree with Guest that Golan has the best overall form and he`s definitely improved from 3 to 4. That said I believe Nayef has every chance of reversing the form given todays conditions. Both however had tough races at Ascot and it could have left its mark. Added to that, I fully expect both Noverre and NEN to improve over the trip. Too many questions. The race will tell us plenty for later on.



Bandari does have the best form to date. Earlier in the season the trainer clearly stated that he can lose a lot of condition after a race. That alone would stop me taking a short price. Also, several are open to improvement which is another reason not to take a short price. Again the race will tell us plenty.



Guest makes Talbot Avenue his 2nd on class/form. I was impressed with his win at the weekend and it was clearly an improved performance but that was 5 furlongs. I accept York is a sharp sprint course but the distance concerns me. That said, Spencer stays with this horse at the expense of Doctor Spin. Again no bet for me.

Cheers,

Barney,

The four horses were given in 'Systems In My Racing' at the top of page 10.

IMP, are you ashamed of something that you want to do it hidden away? Why do you want to read other members posts but not share your own ideas. Is it because you think it will be easier to pick someones brain when seclusion acts as a cloak to cover your design and the intimacy of the situation will induce your correspondant into incaution. JIB