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The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    WOOD AND TREES
    Statajack,
    After what Kyllachy did at Sandown it was obvious that there wasnt a horse alive that could match him. Even the Kyllachys of this world need a bit of luck, but today he was 3/1, how could anyone who studies horse performance not have backed him?
    JIB
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Vanman
Member
Posted
well done to everyone who backed kyllachy
 
Posts: 4040 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Determined>
Posted
Barney,

The well done`s are appreciated but it looks as though `K` wasn`t a bet using the methodolgy ?

Cheers,
 
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Member
Posted
"After what Kyllachy did at Sandown it was obvious that there wasnt a horse alive that could match him." Steady John, easy now!
regards,
 
Posts: 329 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Vanman
Member
Posted
This board has lost its appeal for me.

If anyone wants to get to the bottom of vdw listen to guest and chaz, nobody else knows the full depth of the methods although they may be very efficient at scratching the surface.

good luck to everyone whether they like vdw or not
 
Posts: 4040 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
Statajack, name one horse in activity that can accelerate that like at the end of a 5f dash. At Sandown Kyllachy wasnt coming through beaten horses in a 12f affair, he greased past some of the best sprinters in the land as they were flat out.And there is only one word for that: CLASS.
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<silverbuck>
Posted
Barney, please reconsider! your contributions to the board are much appreciated, youve been here for a long time now, so why leave, im sure the guys in question didn`t mean too much harm although some of the words were a bit strong.
 
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Member
Posted
JIB

Regarding the VDW methodology

Are you sceptical
 
Posts: 690 | Registered: August 19, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Agreed John, that performance was at the back of my mind when I backed him at Ascot where on paper and following the vdw methodology, he also looked a good thing to me. I thought he might have won then with a bit of luck in running. However, again following the methodology he didnt look to have as good credentials today in what was a higher class race. Vdw works on a slightly different principle to normal form study so to operate it sometimes means ignoring what some might see as the bleedin' obvious. Swings and roundabouts maybe but ultimately worth it I hope. Incidentally, I am going to do a post a bit later on concerning this race and vdw methodology which might be interesting, because as per Determined's earlier post, I wonder what people would have made of this race without using the ability ratings?
regards,
 
Posts: 329 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    Boozer,
    My concerns about the universal use of vdw can be found on page 165 of this thread.
    Statjack,
    It has to be a concern that vdw methodology cant find the champion sprinter, its not as if this was a horse that had come from overseas to race here and had form that was difficult to assess. The market had it right too, it started fav. Have you read J Spencer in the Sporting Life: " at half way I was 10 - 15 lengths behind [because of the draw] when we started to get going it was incredible"
    There is a flaw in the way class is assessed in your methods, as Determined has pointed out your class horses dont win very often, and when a horse like Kyllachy is of an outstanding class, a fact that the market recognizes, the methodology cant see it.
    JIB
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
The Pieman says this board has lost it`s appeal for him.

Well what a co-incidence as more and more of the faithfull find no appeal in him.

He can`t even give his pies away now.
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
Sorry, I nearly forgot, bye-bye Pieman.
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<silverbuck>
Posted
hi,
Once the class/form horses are isolated why should we bet some & not others?.
 
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<Determined>
Posted
Barney,

I totally agree that Guest and Chaz know the time of day with regards VDW and I wish I had their profits in my betting bank.

I don`t think I`ll ever have the time to bottom this methodology but I`ll continue to work at it for now.

Should you decide to concentrate your efforts to winner finding elsewhere then the very best of luck.

I personally from our e - mails fully appreciate you know more about racing them some I do not care to waste time mentioning.

You`ve got my e - mail address.

Good luck but I`ve a feeling you won`t be too far away,

Cheers,
 
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<Determined>
Posted
Hopefully one of the experts will comment.

This thread is now 194 pages long and I believe all the answers are there. Its just a case of having the time to read, re- read, then read again and if you`re like still make basic mistakes.

Its along road but one worth taking ( I think ! ),

Cheers,
 
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Member
Posted
JIB

Post 165

Hell fire

I cant compete with a post like that

After all I am one of those people in the area where there isnt intellegent life, according to people South of Watford

Jesus!
the Bible
try pulling their book of past events to pieces

Couldnt you have just said Yes
 
Posts: 690 | Registered: August 19, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
All is not what it seems.
 
Posts: 546 | Registered: February 09, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Determined>
Posted
VDW – a place to start ?

I have listed below what I believe were considered good things by some of the experts using this methodology.

For any relative newcomers to the thread studying these races maybe a useful place to start.

For what its worth I will be having another look myself primarily to see how many were top on the ability rating.

18/05/02 Noverre lost
18/06/02 Rock Of Gibraltar won 4/5
09/07/02 Feet So Fast won 7/2
Millenary won 5/2
26/07/02 Repertory won 7/2
27/07/02 Grandera lost
02/08/02 Nayyir won 9/2
03/08/02 Prompt Payment won 6/4
Scotts View won 6/5
10/08/02 Feet So Fast won 6/4
16/08/02 Systematic won 4/11
17/08/02 Reel Buddy won 7/2
Fayr Jag lost
Mubtaker won 11/8
18/08/02 Alasha won 4/6
20/08/02 Bandari won 4/5.


Cheers,
 
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Member
Posted
Determined,
Further to that, you might want to have a quick check to see which ones were in the first 3 for consistency in their races.
regards,
 
Posts: 329 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Determined


Re: Ability/Class ratings

Righthand Man 33
Lucky Vane 30
Planetman 17
Kumbi 11

Could you honestly (hand on heart) say that

300 quid makes all that much difference when using class or abilty ratings.
I.e strong enough to form part of a structure to determine (no pun intended)the outcome of a horse race?

Even if it is only a basic rating to be used with other factors?
 
Posts: 690 | Registered: August 19, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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