Is Kyllachy 350Y the vdw selection in this race?

So you don't like porky pies huh?
Well you're not on your own there.


Pipedreamer
Ok so you're not keen on Barney (cos he sells the pies?),
but are you sure Guest really does know the business?

JiB
I don't know if KYLLACHY is a VDW choice, but it's a S.W.I.S.H. choice, although like a lot of VDW'ers I shall choose no bet because that seems the safest option. If it wins i prove i know what I am talking about. If it loses I can say I said "no bet",
Swish

JIB,

continent is c/f
dominica is 2nd
malhub is class slightly out of form.

you have to go down a long way to get to kylachy

all those have obvious factors against.

so why bother

pipedreamer

it was the ground that stopped islington at 12f last time not the trip. he has shown tendancies to fail before when the ground was not perfect for him.The opposit was true of kazia.They just grabbed a slow italian horse because it had won a g3.luckily the last time the mud slowed all the good horses down.

with mister links there were clear indications if( look at both horses first two races) you look what the trainers thought of them!

not as obviouse as todays negatives I know but they were there all the same.

Hope this helps to ease your pain!

so that you can take the piss tonight

Needwood blade (barney method)

he was a good thing last time as well

G.Hall didn`t have the ability ratings to hand did he ?

Lets assume not.

The race is a Group One.

How many Group One winners are there in todays race ?

2 namely Continent and Malhub ( both however were over 6 furlongs ).

How many Group 2 winners are there in todays race ?

3 namely Dominica, Kyllachy and Porezza ( all over 5 furlongs ).

5 class horses. How many are in form ?

In my opinion all 5. To come to that conclusion I have allowed Malhub the bad run last time.

*** todays course is very fast and with several front runners its going to be one hell of a pace.

*** the weights carried today is also worth bearing in mind.

Dominica goes up in class and has to carry 13 lbs more which in my opinion will find her out.

Porlezza`s form doesn`t compare with Continent, Kyllachy, Malhub.

Continent`s draw and the sharp course will not suit.

That leaves both Malhub and Kyllachy.

Both badly drawn. That said I expect both to overcome this disadvantage and fight out the finish.

The going will decide whether I invest or not.

Malhub will have the pace and requires fast ground. Kyllachy on the other hand is better with a little juice in the ground.

Comments ?

The novice tries again.

2.05 - a race to leave well alone

2.40 - Romantic Liason has the highest ability rating and is therefore the class/form horse. Russian Revival is clear 2nd on class/form although the time merit buts her in front. Two fillies who impressed last time. Russian Revival in my opinion is all class and will win today before going onto to win the Chevely Park and no doubt she`ll then be the winter favourite for the Guineas.

3.15 - Pentecost and Muchea are in my opinion not in form. I make Demonstrate 1st on class/form followed by Calcutta. `D` has a nightmare draw and is unprovan at the distance which should be enough to put me off be I`m a sucker.

I`ll be backing `D` and Vicious Knight (my way).


4.20 - Lingo is the clear class/form horse but cannot be backed given the dobts about both the ground and the distance.


4.50 - Millenium Dragon is the class/form horse but may have factors against.

Good luck,

In the 3.50 I make Continent the class/form horse with Dominica 2nd class/form. Neither appeal as a bet though.

In the 2.40 caution is again needed with lightly raced juveniles and although Romantic Liason has the higher ability rating so far, she hasn't beaten something of Russian Rhythms true calibre yet. The distances and tracks give further indications and Russian Rhythm looks a good thing to me.

Barney,

yesterday.
"i only end up with question's today, Will islington get the trip? Will master links handle the ground?"

Today.
"it was the ground that stopped islington at 12f last time not the trip. he has shown tendancies to fail before when the ground was not perfect for him.The opposit was true of kazia.They just grabbed a slow italian horse because it had won a g3.luckily the last time the mud slowed all the good horses down.
with mister links there were clear indications if( look at both horses first two races) you look what the trainers thought of them!"

Notwithstanding that a hole or two can be picked in your after race comments anyway, you just seem to be handing ammunition to your critics?
regards,

All I can say is that when I was in the UK recently I had the privilege to see Kyllachy win a G2 race at Sandown. To put it simply I was gob-smacked. Somethings are so remarkable the images stay in the mind and time cannot eradicate them. The sight of Kyllachy picking up at the business end of a 5f race is one of them. The only conclusion that I could draw from this awesome performance was that I might not back Kyllachy in a particular race but I would never back anything against him. JIB

The list of people who will have to buy their own pies is getting longer by the day.

John in Brasil,

I totally agree that what one sees with their own eye sometimes is better than reading the formbook.

Kyllachy`s win at Sandown did take the breath away and later on this afternoon we may be crowning him the champion sprinter.

Russian Rhtyhm left the same impression on me at Ascot.

Cheers,

Not a very good York meeting for me so far. I have only found 2 bets, and the prices where to short for me. Don't suppose I will ever get my strike rate up to 80%. Then today to many possible bets. These are the ones I like the most..........

York
2-05 Salim Toto
3-15 Vicious Knight (R)
3-50 Danehurst
4-20 Dune
4-50 L'oiseau D'argent.

Price will be all important with all these selections, but they all look backable.

Be Lucky

do you consider any of your selections c/f,or do yo feel they are value and most likely winners

I named M. Dragon as the class/form horse in the last with possible factors against.

The main factor against was the possible big danger in L`Oiseau D`Argent who I believe will show massive improvement over todays shorter trip.

Good luck, not that you need it,

Cheers,

well done with R.R i think it just reiterates the fact that when everything is in line,class will nearly always prevail.hope you got the odds.

To be brutally honest about vdw methodology, if it couldnt identify Kyllachy today then either it or your understanding of it is seriously flawed.

it,s all about temperement,of course K had good claims and well done to you,believe me there is no flaw,and tomorrow always comes,did you back russian rythmn.

JIB,

Identifying the class/form horse VDW style is a powerful tool and I firmly believe once I have a full understanding of this method it will be a POWERFUL weapon.

That said, I am having a big problem as today has proved in leaving a race alone if the 1st and 2nd on class/form don`t have what it takes on the day, ie - I have on several occasions gone against the top class/form horses with others and been succesful.

Until I have spent alot more time on this subject matter I am unable to be more decisive.

Back to today, despite Kyllachy`s win his ability rating will now go up to 312 which still leaves him behind several of todays runners.

Whether that fact is a plus or a minus point with regards the methodology I`ll leave to others to decide.

For me, at this moment I am still undecided as to whether this methodology is my future .

Cheers,

To be brutally honest John, Congratulations are in order to you as you will no doubt have recovered the money you lost backing it last time out in a weaker race than today's. Could we spot it as a likely winner today? Yes. Would we have considered it worthy of support? not on past evidence as it was unproven at this level, even accounting for that Sandown performance which first alerted people to just how good the horse might possibly be.
regards,