John

I have just spent an hour or so on the race and have to agree with you

Hope there is a price around the 8/1 mark available tomorrow

The shortest fc favs method highlights Moscow Flyer and Florida Pearl on Saturday. The former looks a good thing but unlikely to be a backable price. I'd need to get 8/13 or better to play. Florida Pearl has won this race in the past, but also been beaten twice including last year by Foxchapel King. The ground will probably be too testing though he is the class/form horse, but one to leave alone in my view.

If Doncaster gets the go ahead then Capitano Corelli does look a good thing, though I would be looking to make a book with Royal Cavalier and Collier Hill also included.

A couple of good prospects back at Down Royal look to be Mise Rafturai and Spirit Leader as a 2 horse book.

I'll post more thoughts on Saturday in the morning.

Sorry,Barney, but now you have turned professional, and all, I wonder why you picked Rosarian when I published a table on this site showing you the chances of NHF horses first time out in hurdles.
Do you think the table is not true?
You once asked if I had any more tables.

Having said that I never got the winner either.
Cheers
Swish

To be fair I must say that I thought IMPEK was a cert against VOL SOLITAIRE as did you,
Cheers
Swish

Looks like I`m in good company.

Captain Corelli and Collier Hill for me. Both horses will be running `loose` today which will certainly be a massive factor in the testing ground.

I`ll be at Donny today if its on but I`m not confident racing will go ahead.

Anybody got a view on the last race.

I haven`t evaluated the race in any great detail as yet but Orientor does not have Danehurst in the race this year and that man Fallon always gets the best out of this one.

Also, Bond Boy who did me a very nice turn last time is a horse who can quicken on dead ground and whilst the the OR, etc suggest he`s not upto the task he`ll run a big race. His record when there is give underfoot is excellent.

Good luck,

Doncaster is not far from here, and we've had a dry night, and the sky is pretty clear at the moment.

I am loath to call it professional, I "like full time" as we all know you you cant be a professional overnight although I will get there in the end.

I dont remember seeing that table you mention and anyway it has given me winners already so far this year.Will you not back kickham when he appears?

PS pole star was a good thing as well.

You've probably spotted it already, but Collier Hill's trainer thinks his horse is better on good ground.
I won't be playing in the last, but (IMO) Orientor has got Millenium Force to beat.
Have a good day at sunny Donny, (It is at the moment, anyway).

Having read the Post since my earlier message as Johnd has pointed out Collier Hill`s trainer believes better ground would suit.

This horse will never have the chance to run off 8-01 again in such a valuable h`cap so they must have taken the view to have a go and see what happens.

Tees Components must now come into the equation and I will be backing this one alongside Capitano Corelli leaving CH to possible put egg on my face.



Orientor - now a non runner. In my opinion because of the draw.

High no`s will dominate - take Smokin Beau and Bond Boy.

Good luck,

After his Ascot win, Mick Channon stated " I thought he had gone to the front too soon", which suggested that, at this stage, he thought the horse needing holding up.
He was ridden similarly in his next race, and my immediate gut feeling was that he had been caught out by a horse,( Lord Protector - which raises another issue which I will leave for the moment), on the other side of the field, which I feel he would have beaten had he been aware of him.
The trainer obviously revised his views after this race, and he was ridden differently lto, a race he turned into a procession from halfway, beating some good horses in the process.
Having now found out that the horse can win ridden in this manner, he is now entered in a 6f listed race, which, with Orientor now out of the way, I believe he can win.
All purely my opinion, of course, and I may well be totally wrong, but my instinct tells me otherwise.
Luck to all

Tom Paddington, Supreme Prince and Farinel all look to be good bets in addition to last nights post.

Have a good day all.

A bad day all round ( for those that posted here,anyway).
Results like Royal Millennium I can live with, having taken a chance on the going and the distance, but to see a horse like Capitano Corelli, with so much in its favour, fall into a hole fully half a mile from home, really does cause one to question the whole edifice.
How can anyone aspire to the 85/90% strike rates, when you see a horse with virtually all the credentials run so much below its previous form. Its not as though it wasn't trying either, when was the last time K Fallon did 8st 4lbs, I can't recall any in the past two seasons.
I guess that, with the end of the flat season, now is the time to sit back and take stock. The strange thing is, that in spite of today's reverses, I am fairly sure that I have recently fitted the last piece of the Jigsaw into place, and now have a clear and simple picture in my mind of what VDW was trying to impart. I now need to prove this, to myself of course, so I will be taking the opposite course to Barney, and withdrawing from any financial interest in racing, until such times as I feel I can be reasonably confident of a return on each horse I support.
I will still watch this thread, and contribute when I feel I have something constructive to say, but, for the time being, the betting boots are definitely off.
Regards

If you`ve found all the pieces to the jigsaw then I congratulate you and I wish you well.

I hope you find many winners and I`ll look forward to your next post.

Where am I with this methodology ? Still not past the first hurdle but one day when I can find the time required I`ll make progress.

So many other things which are a little more important have to be addressed for the time being.

TODAY`S RACING

Please do not feel I am gloating and I am certainly not wanting to rub salt in the wounds but my day turned out quite well, ie -

only played in the last 2 races at Donny today taking

Capitano Corelli & Tees Components

Bond Boy & TOM TUN at 14/1.

TT, whilst not mentioned earlier was a proven mudlark and looked a picture in the paddock.

Cheers,

Hi Johnd,
I have to agree with you i`m still skeptical
that a 85-90% strike rate can be achieved.
Maybe it can if you back at virtually any price
and bet more than one horse in a race sometimes.
and are very selective.But high strike rate
and being very selective can be a red herring.
It`s all about being in the black over a long
period of time thatcounts.If you have a low srike rate you have to be able to handle the long losing
runs.If you are very selective you have to be
very selective and go without a bet for long
periods both require temprement.
Guest you say you achieve a high 60% strike rate
but from the bets you have posted since the
Cheltenham festival your strike rate has been
just above 30%.How do you account for this difference have the bets you have posted hear
been typical of your average bets.Guest is well
in the black over the last 8 months and
he has my respect, although the sample is still
small with some big priced winners.So some might
argue that partly down to luck.I think there can be
little doubt that the VDW methods put the odds
in your favour but i`m not sure about the 80-90%
strike rate or even if this is what we should
be looking for.LSP is what counts .

I backed capitano correlli yesterday.

The fact that it lost is not the fact that is bothering me. When the money went down for bollin nellie I had a bet to cover the possible defeat.

Now then, whats pissing me off is the fact that I was busy most of yesterday and didn't have time to look through the race in any detail at all and relied on the opinions of members on here who I respect.

I feel that stupid I could kick my own arse.

looking over the race early this morning yes captain correli had the right credentials and so did bollin nelli and collier hill and tees components and royal cavalier and kylkenny and dream magic and RED WINE.

This is not a fault of VDW's methods that a likely horse lost because a VDW horse won and its not a case of questioning the methods, which worked again, but answering why bet in the race at all with so many possibles.If there are enough horses in with a chance to necesitate making a massive book then surely its time to sit back and enjoy watching the race, certain in the knowledge that tomorrow there will be a ONE horse race to bet on.

yours

feeling not very professional

Barney

PS determined well done with tom tun

pps Why am I posting this shit?

Hope you didn`t lose too much on C.Corelli.

Your question - why play with so many probables is a very valid one. Back to temprement again I`m afraid.

Lets be honest about it. Given the terrible conditions at Doncaster yesterday why the hell were we even putting our hard earned monies down.

I was there and I`ve never seen horses finishing a furlong behind in almost every race.

I got lucky with Tom Tun so got out of jail.

I`d be very interested how the likes of Guest, Mtoto, Fulham, etc, etc got on yesterday with regards Doncaster.

Cheers,

I dont think it's shit, I think it illustrates an important point of neglect in the interpretation of VDW's remark about putting the odds against oneself. I was thinking of asking Guest how backing four runners in a field of 22 over five furlongs in the mud could possibly be construed as following in the spirit of VDW but didnt want to be accused of doubting or similar. I think there is a misunderstanding with these Dutched bets, it might seem that choosing four horses reduces it to four races of five and a half runners but the reality is that any of the selections still has to beat eighteen other horses, so Guest ended up betting in four nineteen runner sprints in the mud. I dont know about VDW but it certainly strikes me as a contravention of common sense.

Like most of us I think, I backed C. Correli. I looked at the consistency, the ability, the last run class, the cd and all the rest but there was one big negative that I ignored in my enthusiasm for this apparent good thing which both yesterdays big up in class winners Red Wine and Swansea Bay both had and which the upped in class vdw examples had. It only needs one thing out of place before temperament reminds us with a slap in the face that it is probably the most important aspect of vdw.
I think the going probably didnt help either (despite Corelis win on soft) as I noticed that the first 5 or 6 runners home were all from high draws.
regards,

Epiglotis/Maggsy - Apart from the fact that since March I have most definitely not posted every bet I have made, far from it in fact, I have hopefully helped to show that a high strike rate can be achieved if very selective. JohnD suggested making use of the 2 shortest fc favs at the 2 main meetings method and I made an effort to comment on most days involving this method. So far only one horse I suggested with this method has lost and the others all won, some backed some left to run. In addition the ones I said to leave with this method all lost as expected and I even gave the real winner in the race on 2 ocassions.

The multiple bets within books I have made have done very well and Fridays bet was just one of those things and a 9/1 winner was caught close home. Most punters got murdered in the handicaps at the recent Newmarket meetings, but my approach yielded the winner of most of them including 20/1,14/1,12/1,5/1 winners. Sure I make mistakes, but I haven't the many many years of experience that VDW had. These mistakes only get gradually ironed out over time.

JohnD has made the right decision I feel because being unsure about you betting or selection process is a sure way to losses. VDW once said he had respect for those that went out there and learned the game in the field in what is one of the toughest businesses to survive in. I agree and that is why whilst I don't agree with most Pros approaches, I respect those that stay in the black. That is the main object afterall.

Regards Capitano Corelli, it is interesting to note that when it won it's maiden it beat the odds on Justbetweenfriends and then won at big odds next time.

Re November Handicap

For all the discussion about this event, it seems to me in the end that the vital factor turned out to be the draw. The jockeys drawn in the outside positions seemed to learn a lesson from Daryll Holland's ride in the 2m handicap, where he kept very wide for most of the way until the straight, therefore utilising better ground. The first four in the November Handicap were all drawn high with the lowest being 17.
Sometimes in extreme conditions, either going, draw or a combination of both, measuring the class of the contestants goes out of the window as many runners are simply not in a position to win.
The conditions seemed likely to be very bad, so I skipped Doncaster. To his credit, Daryll Holland was prepared to lay his opinion of the track condition on the line, and he was a proved correct.

Rob