You created a new topic....Johnd...., not sure which thread it's on, but if you go in on search and put in ICE and JOHND, you'll find it.
Incidentally, the post reply is on the right, and the new topic is on the left, I discovered this after creating two new topics last night, when trying to post on this thread.

Statajack
Good suggestion. and as you echo Chaz on this, I am sure it would be useful to keep track on both methods, but you try and get them of their butts,I've tried and failed!

Statajack - The 2 shortest f/c favs approach was put forward by VDW for those who insisted on having more bets. We know he avoided sellers and real scrubber races including novice hurdle races where there was little form or unexposed types in the race. He did however bet in maiden and novice races when the form was good enough. The method you mentioned is a completely different one though similiar in some basic respects.

Mtoto - Well done with Edredon Bleu, undoubtedly a top class chaser who jumps brilliantly. However, based on the evidence beforehand I felt it would have been an out of the ordinary perfomance to give the weight to Seebald and perhaps Armaturk. He hadn't won a handicap for some time, though he does go very well fresh in recent years (a point that has helped me win a lot more than I lost on Seebald today by backing EB in his last two seasonal debuts). As VDW said, no matter how good a horse is it doesn't overcome certain handicaps often enough to carry his money. This doesn't mean I never back topweights, far from it, but when they face todays sort of circumstances they really don't win often enough to worry about. Never the less well done again.

Needless to say I made over a 2.25 point profit today despite 2 earlier losers by backing Montreal. The class/form horse with everything going it's way. Yes plenty of classsy hurdlers fail when switched to fences, but in certain frequently occuring circumstances they are nailed on to collect. It is too broad a judgement to say some do some don't. Better to research the circumstances surrounding the situations when they do win.

By the way, I left Jair Du Cochet at the price. A certainty but not needed for betting purposes.

SPF method; 1 qualifier = Ibis Rochelais 2.05K.

Principle h/c chase/ non h/c chase method.

This method is more subjective than the 1st one, and must, therefore, contain some elements of the poster's own view. This is, then, my stab at it,and I would welcome critical appraisal.

2.05 K Same as above

2.35 K No selection**

** I have this race between the top 2, but, as Spinofski has the highest ablility rating, but is not in the first 2 in the f/c, no bet has to be the call.

Any comments would be welcome!

Fulham
If I could presume to apply your rationale of yesterday to the 1.20 N.Abb., would this make Ideal De Bois Beury a good bet today?

JohnD

From VDW's class perspective there are indeed similarities between Montreal yesterday and Ideal Du Bois Beury today.

But class is of course only part of the issue, and unlike yesterday to my mind today there are question marks in regard to form. Specifically, in the context of IDBB's win on 16/2/02, his later runs could be viewed as rather disappointing.

No Need for Alarm's last run could also be viewed as rather disappointing, but there was a mitigating factor that day, and the 39l margin of defeat may prove to under-state the performance.

Thus, despite the evident advantage IDBB currently enjoys from a class perspective, personally I do not see him as a good thing.

JohnD - The 3 runner Novice Chase at Kempton shows a conflict to me as far as the shortest fc favs method goes. The fav is not a form horse VDWs way and it is worth remembering that Sir Toby would probably have won the Novice Handicap chase on the card last season but for a mishap. He is a form horse, in fact the class/form horse and looks like being a value price if the fc is correct. I'll be backing him at better than evens.

At Newton Abbot the class/form horse in the 1.20 is Ideal Du Bois Beary and I have to disagree slightly with Fulham and go one further and say that to my mind he is a good thing, but again I would want better than evens.

i also think this looks very good and will be the middle leg of a treble today for a.p after aquarius wins the 12.45 and finally maouse honour goes in in the 1.50.

JohnD

For what it is worth, within the last fifteen minutes I have learnt that the racing journalist David Lyons, who runs an information-based private tipping service, has advised his clients that the connections of both the Pipe and the Nicholls horses in the 1.20 at Newton Abbot are confident, and as a result he is not recommending a bet in the race.

I am extremely sceptical about tipsters and others who claim to have "inside info", but all I know about Mr Lyons suggests to me that he is genuinely knowledgeable about what horses are "expected" by both stables, and I therefore give considerable credence to this information.

Thanks very much for all the detail, good to see your input on these methods.
As the race turned out, I.D.D.B., was in trouble fully a mile out, before jumping became an issue, and was totally outclassed on the day. I know you steered us away from the fav, but I doubt any of us expected to see a performance like that from N.N.F.A.

Guest
Well done with Sir Toby, nice price too.

Hi Barney,

I’m going to post this here, as I don’t want to clutter up your other thread with Greg.

May I first of all say that an 80% strike rate is extremely difficult to obtain backing horses at odds-against, and to be honest, isn’t the be all and end all as far as I’m concerned. Whether your remark was tongue in cheek, I don’t know, but you’ll never attain that sort of success by backing some of the horses that you’ve posted recently!

It has long been my view that the mention by VDW of his 80% strike rate is what over the years has hooked most folk and reeled them into researching his methods. However, it is also my view that it is the mention of the 80% strike rate that has also held many folk back.

IF you are after a high strike rate then it’s time for some serious ‘temperament’. Back only the class/form horse when everything goes its way. VDW made mention of this many times and also suggested that for those unable to balance the factors it would be well if they stuck with the class horse (highest ability) and then only when ALL other factors support it, so should they. This is, in my experience, where the 80% strike rate comes from. Even then you have to know how to use the tools he gave.

The term ‘running before walking’ springs to mind where most that follow VDW are concerned.

I wish you every success with your decision to take the plunge. Work hard and stay focused.

2SPF's

There are no qualifiers tomorrow (IMO).

Principal h/c & non-h/c ch.

1.50 Hayd.
Celtic Pride is the clear class horse, but falls well short on consistency. No bet.

2.50 Hayd.
Tom Costalot has plenty going for him in this, but has a history of needing a run after a lengthy break. No bet

On a quiet day, the nearest I can get to a bet is Gumley Gale, 2.40H, although this c/d may be a bit sharp for him unless there is genuine cut in the ground.
Anbody else find a winner?

The 2 main meetings are Haydock and Thurles and the 2 shortest fc favs from these 2 meetings are Thurles 1.00 Hard Shoulder and Thurles 1.30 Major Title. Both horses qualify for selection and both will be backed at better than 4/6.

The chase method highlights both races at Thurles the 2.30 and 3.00 but nothing qualifies in my view.

Other horses I consider worth backing today are Haydock 1.50 Celtic Pride 2.20 Out Of The Shadows (hcap hurdle method).

Also Hereford 3.10 Vol Solitaire.

There are 2 qualifiers tomoorow:

2.30 UTT The Biker

3,05 UTT Joss Naylor

** As both horses are entering new spheres tommorow,there are insufficient ratings to ratify their selection as qualifiers, so I have posted them both as such, purely on a class basis.

I will be indisposed until Friday afternoon, so if Guest, or anyone else, could cover the other method, I would be most grateful.

Even at this early stage, Sir Desmond, 1.35 Don, looks a really solid bet.

Barney
Have you broken your typing finger? Definite Guest runs tommorow at Donny, for a new trainer. Wonder if that will mean a new policy?

Luck to all

I am very suprised you selected vol solitair, when he met impek in a class 357 vol solitair wasnt even the cf going into that and was beaten 15lgths by impek when recieving weight.

Johnd,

finger is fine, its nice to see some others throwing their tuppence worth in Ive just been enjoying looking and have been using the time to update the form book. I thought prince among men was a cert today.

I didnt think impek could give the weight to vol solitaire today but what a performance by the winner it will take a good one to lower his colours thats for sure he`s built like a tank & jumps like a buck, but how will the trainer let him develop? he`s still 8/1 for the arkle but he was 16/1 beforehand i reckon he is nailed on for a place at the price if he turns up, mrs knight has a real good string this season the best ever!.

[This message was edited by walter pigeon on November 07, 2002 at 11:16 PM.]

has anyone looked at this horse?


nk second to classified in a bumper in receipt of four pounds, running on second in heavy ground.

Later when back to two mile tried to quicken even off a pace that wasn't really suitable for it. class horse this.

The 2 shortest priced fc favs at the 2 main meetings are both at Down Royal with Dashing Home 1.00 and Davenport Milenium 2.30 both qualifying as bets. Again I'd personally want 4/6 or better to bet either horse.

At Doncaster 3 races I'll be betting in are the 1.35 , 2.10 and 2.45.

In the 1.35 I'll be making a book with Ptarmigan Ridge/Regal Song/Sir Desmond and Polar Impact.

2.10 gives And Beyond as the class/form horse.

2.45 shows jalousie and April Stock as worth making a book on at evens or better the pair.

One other race to make a book in is Hexham 3.25 with both Hailstorm and Lindajane looking to have the race between them. Again evens or better the pair.

If its a methodical approach

why are most of the VDW book titles including the latest one containing "system" in the title?

Hopefully the 2 shortest priced fc favs method has demonstrated one way to get a high strike rate from just a few bets per week. As far as I can tell the races I have commented on in relation to this method has resulted in only one qualifying loser (Justbetweenfriends) and all other qualifiers winning. I have even shown a few occassions whereby the fc fav is a false one and have isolated the class/form horse in the race that can be backed (Smirk 7/1, Sir Toby 7/2) via other methods.

Today showed an interesting development. The class/form horse Davenport Milenium was withdrawn early in the meeting. Subsequently Scottish Memories became the clear class/form horse in the race relative to the opposition. Re evaluating the race showed him as a good bet at better than 4/6 for me.

The rest of the day went horribly wrong with Ptarmigan Ridge unable to hold a 20/1 shot at bay, both horses at Hexham forgetting their way round the course (generous fines please Mr Steward) and 2 big mistakes at Doncaster for which I hold my hands up to. Down Royal insured only a scratch instead of a dent.

With top-rated on ability I Cried For You unlikely to stay, the way should be clear for 2nd top-rated Capitano Corelli to win this.
Proven over c/d, with a s/f well up to this class, certain to act on the going, improving, well weighted, and the ideal draw for a front-runner, he seems to have everything in his favour, and with K Fallon booked some time ago, the connections obviously feel that a few lbs overweight won't make any difference.
In my opinion,as compelling a case as I've seen in a big handicap this season, and it is now a case of hoping that the race is not abandoned tomorrow.