Before we go overboard with the euphoria, I feel it is only fair to point out that Beauchamp P palpably didn't run his race yesterday.
Fair enough, the best horse won on the day, but I defy anyone to show me where there was more than 5 lengths between them on previous form.
Just trying to keep things in perspective!

I was out all of yesterday but with only a brief look at Saturday`s racing in the early part of last week I identified 3 bets at Newmarket for Saturday, ie -

Beauchamp Pilot not at odds on
Pablo 15/2 taken
Greenslades who was entered in the last but did not take up this winning opportunity.

In summary, one bet = one winner.

*** Pablo in my opinion will just about win the 2003 Lincoln ***

Turning to B.Pilot. He should have won the time before and I couldn`t see Smirk beating him yesterday if he ran to form.

I totally agree with Guest that Smirk would have been readied for yesterday. That said, he shouldn`t have beaten an in form BP.

I have only recently watched the video and BP in my opinion clearly as you have stated failed to run his race.

I note in yesterday`s Post the trainer of BP was confident the horse was still well in himself but looking at his lack lustre run yesterday he clearly had `gone`.

Guest had to his credit worked that out befroe the race.

As for me, at odds against BP would have been a bet.

Cheers,

JohnD

On their last meeting it was certainly a surprise to me that Smirk won by the distance he did - but it would also have been surprising had Beauchamp Pilot won by a comparable distance. But most surprising of all was the differential in the sps of the two was so great. I thought the Racing Post forecast differential was generous, but ...

BP's trainer had also said that he was worried in case he had gone to the well once to often with this horse and so it was proved correct not only yesterday but also in the run previous. Think about it if BP was good enough on the day, he would have won. Unlucky horses are music to the bookies ears.

M.o.M

"BP should have won if good enough"

If you are referring to the run prior to yesterday then with respect your comments are unfounded.

BP was one of the unluckiest losers I can ever remember on that particular day.

Cheers,

Who would back beauchamp pilot when he had failed when a good thing at 11/4 and then produced at the wrong distance and dropped in class at a far shorter price?

One can go back to VDW's very first horse race.

They just dont do it.

now good thing failing and then produced quickly at a higher price, now thats another thing.

Guest has been telling us this for months and months.

I am sure that Guest will be glad to see there is not the same amount of incredulity as there was when perrets won the same way.

He's the Daddy!!

Obviously Smirk is not that much better than Beauchamp Pilot, but on the day and given the conditions and how both horses had been placed it was there to see that one horse had done his job for the season and was just trying it's luck, whilst the other had been let down and brought back for an even later campaign. Had the race been 9f+ then I would not have wagered on Smirk, nor anything else in the race.

Just to pick up on some of Barneys comments, sometimes it appears that strange things are happening in the form. Rather than question the exact reasons for this, is it not better to identify and prove to ones self the circumstances that surround these occurences and use them for future benefit?

There are 2 qualifiers today:

3.20 W Bay Island

1.00 P Wagner

Regards

Having had another look at these, Wagner doesn't of course, qualify on consistency, leaving Bay Island as the only qualifier.

shellin hill 220w

has a profile that i have used to good effect hes not quite perfect but what do you think.

Not sure where your coming from with SH, he has the form to win it, but his last run was abysmal in a race that shouldn't have caused him too many problems. He was certainly beaten too far out for the distance to be a factor. Good luck if you back him.

I have got him in an ew double with bound

3.00 Catterick

Laggan Minstrel looks interesting, has some ok form with a bit of give in the ground

as you know things have been going well between us of late and there is no bad feeling in this post whatsoever,just wondering if you would like a fortnight challenge,level stakes ,1pt a day,win only bets,just to spice things up a bit,to see how i am progressing,as you have just turned pro this would be a good yardstick for me,if i could get near a pro would be a good result?
waiting in anticipation

Its a nice thought but to be honest my betting isn't geared to selecting 1 a day.

today for instance I fancied seven but I didnt back any to win as there were ifs and buts with all of them. just as well really as I had three thirds and four seconds.

for win bets, at the moment, I am lucky to find two a week at the prices I like.

Anyway I think that if you can beat Swish head to head you are already good enough after all he's good enough to sell his.

As you said to me on friday Greg its about getting the staking right as well.

What I will say though is that anyone can, it was not an easy decision for me just before christmas as I have two small kids and a big mortgage, I mean I wasn't on big money only 2k month so it wasnt a big decision really as I've won and spent more than my salary already this year thanks to VDW.

The weird thing is for me going to the bank to put money in for bills etc I only ever used to go to take money out.

I have started with a small bank of 5k and if i lose it all I dont mind and more importantly neither will the missus.

I will go for 80% winners over the two weeks and see if I can throw in a couple of big priced ones if they pop up.

If it helps you make the jump it will be worth it.

I really hope you win!!!!!

good luck


PS. just because I post them does not mean my money will be on them.

the problem i have is that i still work for a living,and unable to get to a computer most days,so it will have to be via text message on mobile phones,10p a day for a bit of fun.
as you allready know my mobile number and i do not know yours,as soon as you text your bet i will text mine back straight away,you can post the results on here if you wish,will wait in anticipation for yours at 12 o clock.

you dont want much do you??

LOL.

On Tuesday the 2 shortest forecast favs highlights Catt 1.00 Justbetweenfriends and Exeter 1.40 Robber Baron.

Study of the form shows that Justbetweenfriends should have no trouble in winning her race and represents a good bet provided a reasonable price can be secured.

Robber Baron has good form from last season, but failed to land a race that should have been no problem before well out of it's depth at Aintree. Several big stables have newcomers in this race and it is up in trip also. Not a qualifier then and a race to leave.

The chase method shows both Seebald Exeter 2.40 and Montreal Exeter 3.10 as good bets and will also be taken with Justbetweenfriends. Note Edredon Bleu who has never won at Exeter but did make it's seasonal debut in this race a few years back finishing behind but then winning next time at Huntingdon a few weeks later.

In my opinion ROBBER BARON is an absolute certainty,
Cheers
Swish

I forgot to say that JUST BETWEEN FRIENDS should win also but is not as strong,
Swish