Glad to see you maintaining your interest in the 2 shortest price favs method; I would have to agree with Swish on Robber Baron though, it can only improve for the step up in distance, and is miles clear on the figures.
I also have Lord Seamus, 3.40 Ex down as a good bet, some very good races today, for a November Tuesday, anyway.
Luck for today

What price Beacon Light 3.00C springing a 'surprise' today?

your beacon light mad you are.

now last time we went overboard it threw in a duff one. lol.

personally after last time I think its getting ready for the sand one of "the big ones".

if it beats this lot that will really knacker it up for winter.

Fulham,

can you help me with something that has been troubling me?

I seem to remember you stating that you had seen the paper for the day of the "Erin". Do you remember if it was the shortest price fav of the day?

Came across your posting on another thread, I've accidentally started one too. We must have the same size fingers.
Re Ice Cool Lad, 3.20f, He looks a bit of a plodder when the grounds on top. Good luck if you back him

Barney

I'm sorry but I can't. I did examine the relevant Sporting Life in the Newspaper Library, but only photocopied the details of the Erin, as the other races were, at that time, of no particular interest.

Thanks anyway.

I was thinking that VDW maybe looked for the shortest price fav and then checked for out of formness ETC and that this is possibly what made the race "ON".

Swish - Obviously Robber Baron has a lot of plus points, but apart from the dangerous newcomers from some big stables, it did fail to beat another hurdling debutant when odds on and dropped a long way in class at Hereford. It's probable but not certain in my view.

Justbetweenfriends has far less opposition than ever before and is a certainty failing an act of nature.

did not realize you had gone full time.
wish you all the luck in the world.

If you dont try you never know.

probably lose the house, wife, kids and end up a bum on the streets.LOL.

Barney
Seconding Max's best wishes for your success. See you in Kiribati?

Swish + Guest
I wouldn't consider either of those horses worth a bet. I still have Folkestone to do but so far only Cosmic Case looks worthwhile to me.

I've started experimenting with a basic VDW component introjected into my process. That doesn't mean I claim to have VDW type selections but from the races that looked interesting I have some views to express.
1. I disagree with Seebald as an investment, Armaturk is too dangerous.
2. Lord Seamus looks okay but difficult to rule out Handyman.
3. Bongo Man, same as '2' but apropos Felix Randell.
4. Montreal looks good but not completely confident in terms of the horse itself, ignoring the opposition.
5. Cosmic Case looks like the best investment.

Epiglotis

I agree with your comments re Montreal, but the great thing about VDW's method is that one could quickly establish that the opposition could safely be ignored.

That left a question about Montreal: would he take to fences, something that could not be definitively known until tested. But at the price available the (very slight) risk that he wouldn't was, to my mind, generously factored in.

Where I think you might find VDW's method particularly attractive is in the way it allows one to assess the whole field from a logically coherent (and to me compelling) perspective. That way, not only can one identify a probable winner in a race, if there is one, but one can also be quite clear about why others cannot realistically win. When the analysis throws up a clear bet, and the race works out as envisaged (as it does more often than not), in addition to the financial reward there is an intellectual satisfaction which I suspect you would appreciate more than most.

You really must buy those books!

Guest/Fulham,

Well done, with Montreal. Fulham I am a little surprised you thought the price was enough to cover the doubts (or did you get a bigger price than 5/2)? Could not the case you put up for M, have been put for Farmer Jack? I except hurdlers have to learn the chasing game, but how many good hurdlers fail when it comes to chasing?

I made Edredon Bleu, the c/form horse in his race. I had decided to let him run, but the price was unbelievable. Even then I took the 8's, if you had told me it would get bigger I wouldn't have believed it. When this happens, and it does quite often doesn't it make you wonder how much importance can be placed in the market? Especially when a non gambling stable has a horse against hype horses. Seebald had been beaten twice he stepped into Group 1 class (even when it was G1 novice). Armaturk's form had all been on flat easy courses, and neither had ever run against a horse of that class. I thought 8/1 covered the doubt that EB may have lost some of his old zest, I not saying he will ever beat the big guns again at Cheltenham, is this what VDW means when he says ability never fades?

Be Lucky

Thanks for those observations. I'm going to be busy for a couple of days more, after that I'll take a more thorough look at today's races.

Mtoto

Farmer Jack has certainly put in some useful performances, but from VDW's class perspective he was plainly inferior to Montreal.

Given that that was my starting assumption, the only real issue was what odds on Montreal making up to be a decent chaser? As you say, some don't, but when a top trainer like Martin Pipe switches a decent hurdler to chasing at five, it can reasonably be inferred that he is satisfied it can jump.

Unfortunately I was out from mid-day, and unable therefore to keep an eye on the market. I took the 3.8 available at mid-day with Betfair, which struck me as very generous, but I don't know whether there were opportunities to take a better price during the three hours prior to the off.


Epiglotis

What VDW offers is an intellectually coherent conceptual framework which, as Guest regularly demonstrates in his pre-race posts, can be applied in practice to good effect.

I may be quite wrong, but on the basis of your posts I think you will find the coherence to your taste, as well as the results.

[This message was edited by Fulham on November 05, 2002 at 09:15 PM.]

Gunther McBride (3.45 Kemp) has twice made the transition in the past, and performed with credit on both occasions. Given his improvement of last season, that he goes well fresh, and is twice a winner at the track, he looks a really solid bet for tomorrow.

Regards.

You were right about ICE COOL LAD.
Now I need a favour.
Which thread did I mention it on as I can't remember!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Swish

I echo Max's sentiments,I also did not realise that you had gone full time,the very best of luck.

Might it not be better to consider the best value handicap and non handicap chase of the day as opposed to simply the 2 lowest priced favs? I dont think vdw regarded novice hurdles and maidens as fishing in well stocked waters.
regards,