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Member
Posted
guest, sorry to see your post dated 26 dec, in only the short tme i have been a member of this forum your selection and thoughts have impressed me with your knowledge on van der wheils methods, wold it be possible to ask you some questions regarding van der wheil, jock bingham,via email if possible many thanks grundy.

john duncan
 
Posts: 189 | Registered: February 07, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Guest,

" nil illigitimus carborundum " the spelling maybe way out but this Latin saying I believe translates as

DON`T LET THE BASTARDS GET YOU DOWN

All the very best in the New Year and enjoy backing all those winners at all prices.

Cheers,
 
Posts: 1107 | Registered: February 12, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
I sometimes wonder if some of the others in this room have read the same VDW books as me.

JIB
So thats your "system" then is it, horses with multiple entries, plus a good trainers record on the chosen course entry. This has little to do with the VDW methods, I understood the idea of the room was for VDW enthusiasts to attempt to clone his methods.

Mr. toto

Beacon Light had an overall ability rating of 47, in his previous race he was contesting a lower class race (39) and failed (6-4 from 13-8..thats downturn No.1. In his penultimate race he contested a class 43 race and won, as previously mentioned the horse now came to a class 39 race and failed, downturn No.2, and for good measure your own beloved S/F's also show a downturn 109-106. Thats three methods of rating *ALL* showing a downturn.
 
Posts: 54 | Registered: November 27, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Picture of walter pigeon
Posted
What a great days racing at Kemton Park which the highlight for me was jair du cochet in the Feltham his performance was exemplary jumped like a buck & found another gear when the 2nd horse played his final hand bless him, as always on this card it will be interesting to compare the race times of the novice with the King George.
 
Posts: 1853 | Registered: August 27, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Vanman
Member
Posted
Mister ED,

Those kind of clues mean nothing to some of the halfwits on here.

Guest,

Take satisfaction with you, in the pleasure you have brought to other VDW enthusiasts, on a job well done!


Doubter's

Well done!! Are you all pleased?

Perhaps you can now have a vdw is rubbish thread, it should be fun the six of you.

one wont post nothing
one wants to charge
one wants to waffle
one wants to swear
one wants to but cant
one just wants a laugh

[This message was edited by Barney on December 26, 2002 at 10:43 PM.]
 
Posts: 4040 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Fulham>
Posted
Determined

An admirable, though I fear unrealistic, sentiment.

Look at it from Guest's point of view. For a year or more he has put in hours of his time to assist the likes of you and me more fully to understand VDW's approach, with no obvious benefit for himself, and possibly to the detriment of his own betting. That he has done this is in itself a remarkable act of generosity. That he has done so while periodically under criticism – some of it ill-mannered - from those who, whatever else their motives, plainly have no interest in trying to understand VDW’s approach, makes it all the more remarkable.

It now remains to be seen what happens to this thread. It comprises an extensive archive of comment, the most valuable element by far being Guest’s posts, which, had it been available when I first started studying VDW seriously, would have saved me literally years of trial and error in trying to solve the puzzle set in those Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book letters and articles. If posters use that archive to explore issues in a serious way, we may yet find Guest popping back from time to time to nudge us forward on tricky points. If it degenerates into an unreasoned “I’m backing X” forum (from which, in truth, it has never been all that far), I doubt we’ll hear from Guest again, and he won’t be the last to move on.

The more thoughtful doubters, such as JIB and Epiglotis, have been accommodated in that some of us have put in time and effort to explain our points of view in response to their posts. They remain sceptical, and that is their right. But it is surely time to leave them to their interests and for those of us who are concerned further to understand VDW’s approach to focus solely on that. Anyway, that is what I will be doing.
 
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Rab
Member
Picture of Rab
Posted
Just before you go I got an email from JIB on Christmas day containing a short list of possible bets,6 won,best price was 11/2,at the time he sent this email we did not have all the info we work with,But i must tell you this is not at all out of place,for a number of weeks he has sent me emails with winners included and at times it is uncanny how he picks them,
If possible could you,or more of the vdw followers post some horses up the night before,some do,so to see if the c/f horses are the same or if you all agree a selection would win,
My point in writing this letter is you must consider everybody's view on how they get winners,whoever they are,JIB,SWISH or anyone who is a member of this forum,

regards,

Rab
 
Posts: 2338 | Registered: August 21, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of Jimmy
Posted
To quote you’re post above, ”The more thoughtful doubters, such as JIB and Epiglotis, have been accommodated in that some of us have put in time and effort to explain our points of view in response to their posts.” If this had been the case since the beginning of this thread it would not have attracted the animosity it has.
Personally I have never been a great believer in VDW, a point I made clear before this thread started. Having read the original letters in the H’cap Book and also some of the articles and books I came to the conclusion, rightly or wrongly, that the methods were vastly overrated. I have read nothing on this thread to make me change my mind.
What I have read here though has reinforced my belief that whenever VDW is mentioned it attracts four types of people.
1) The person who attacks the methods, and says they are rubbish, without ever having looked at them.
2) The person who says that VDW was a genius but when you ask them to elaborate they tell you that the points are hidden and are a secret and they are not telling you what they are. This is the person who usually refuses, as VDW did, to give selections in advance, which would at least give some credibility to their claims. Then, if pushed long enough, will give selections, the only trouble is that the selections don’t bear any relation to VDW claims of a high strike rate. When questioned on this they usually tell you that it was their mistake and the method is right. Not a very creditable argument, in my opinion.
3) The person who is an inveterate loser and who will jump on anything that is new to him, in the hope that it will turn him into a winner. This person is like a reformed alcoholic, or someone who has found religion. The will not hear a word against their new “religion” and will attack anyone who dares to question them. They will defend what they think is the truth with any means available, even if it means, paradoxically, lying through their teeth and inventing stories about high strike rates and fantastic profits.
4) The person who genuinely wants to investigate the method and is prepared to help anyone else on the same quest. The person that, when asked a question does not reply, “Go and buy all the old form books and spend five years studying them and find the answer yourself”. If this thread had been comprised of people like this from the outset then it could have been an excellent thread. I am willing to say this as it would probably have proved by now that the method as quoted by VDW flawed. But who knows what may have been found on the journey?
 
Posts: 1335 | Registered: September 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of Jimmy
Posted
Being a doubter let me put your mind at rest and assure you that Guest will be back. If for nothing else but the sycophantic praise of his disciples. He's done it before remember?
 
Posts: 1335 | Registered: September 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Hustler
Member
Picture of Swish
Posted
I would just like to say to Guest, in fact all members, that I never did have DEANOS BEANO as a maximum bet.
There weren't enough factors to make it so.
There were enough factors to make it a strong each way though even with less than 8 runners. I wrote my sarcastic piece though, because i am sick and tired of people ignoring what I have to say that speed figs are very important and that other factors are less important.
Of course you cant win just backing every top speed, we all know that, you have to use knowledge and experience to decide when such figs are useful or not.
Without a doubt, though, if a horse has never proved it can run faster than others, how can it be a bet.
All that BARRACCOUDA spiel was not just aimed at Guest.
Some of you may have noticed I have entered the tipping challenge for a while, just so I can prove a point. I aren't top but I aren't doing bad.

Fulham/Mtoto,
Thanks for backing me on the odds-on thing, although I must confess I back odds-on on occasion, (usually because they are backed down to that, though not always.).

Rab
thankyou for the support and your kind words about JIB, who certainly does know how to pick winners.
Cheers
Swish
 
Posts: 3071 | Registered: September 27, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
OLD BHUDDIST PROVERB

'The difference between an enlightened man and an ignorant one, is that the enlightened one is aware of his ignorance'!
 
Posts: 1512 | Registered: August 20, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Fulham>
Posted
Swish

So do I, but only very rarely - once in the last Flat season, and two bets at evens so far this NH (and one of them literally refused to start!).

As Guest made clear in his Christmas Day post, there are degrees of "sureness" even with these shorter priced "good things". It was difficult to find any flaw in the case for Best Mate, where my unwillingness to back it owed nothing to concerns from a VDW perspective and everything to my caution over value - after all, even relatively speaking, there were no absolute "dogs" in the race. A different matter with Le Sauvignon. Clearly a good horse but, as Guest said, he had as yet beaten nothing over fences, and one was therefore pinning a good deal on his hurdles record from the ability perspective. Again, with few if any "dogs" in the race, it was always possible that one would prove too good.


Jimmy

Syophantic? Hardly. Just expressions of gratitude for the very great deal of help given over an extended period.
 
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Member
Posted
A clear example today where the ability rating on occasion should not be taken literally, ie -

CHIVES = 35.

His ability is surely far better judged on his last 2 runs.

A must for the shortlist but can he give all that weight away to Gunner Welburn ?



WALTER,

You were clearly right about Hors La Loi. I was very wrong. Luckily, given the very soft ground I didn`t play.


Cheers,
 
Posts: 1107 | Registered: February 12, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Mr e d

We seem to be at cross purposes, I am well aware of Beacon Light's inadequacy's. It was Mr Kildare I was inquiring about. Your statement that he would have been VDW's selection if PK hadn't run.

Would it be possible to set out an analysis for MK that would explain why he was a potential selection? It would also be interesting to see the same analysis for PK.

Be Lucky
 
Posts: 1133 | Registered: October 22, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Picture of Andrew
Posted
2.25 Kempton

Chief Cashier was an unlucky last time out when slipping as was going well at the time. Carried
11 - 6 that day 10 - 3 today & looks to hold a good chance and is a bet.

Will keep an eye on Serenus who ran his best race for a while LTO, but the 2 miles round Kempton looks a bit sharp nowdays - Leatherback should set a good pace though.

3.25 Kempton

Sure Future is a bet in this race, should have won LTO but for a mistake at the last. The 3 miles and soft around Kempton should suit.

Townie is one to watch as he is on his second comeback run and ran too freely LTO. He was favourite for this race 2 years ago.
 
Posts: 80 | Registered: August 25, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Determined.

I have to agree 100% about Chives. roll eyes Also was it all that terrible weight that beat him, or the clumsy jump at the last? eek

Be Lucky
 
Posts: 1133 | Registered: October 22, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Mtoto,

A hell of a run from this one and given a very good ride from the jockey. My initial impression was the weight concession beat him but I`ll have another look at the video.

Chives will retain the ability rating = 35 but in my opinion this was a career best effort when up in class (prize money wise) and he has well and truely marked his card.

I understand the valuable `de Vere` race at Haydock is next on the agenda which I believe is in February thus giving the horse approx` 5-6 weeks rest.

**** I wonder how far he`d have won today without the large rise in the weights ****

Cheers,
 
Posts: 1107 | Registered: February 12, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
I am sorry to see that you are departing the forum.I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for all your invaluable contributions,in the last year.I for one have learnt a lot from them,and on occassions it often gave me extra confidence,to see a selection of mine was also a selection of yours.
I will say,that the first part of the forum,I looked at was vdw,and especially to see if you had posted,as your posts were constructive,and importantly in the right spirit.
An aspect of your posts,that I enjoyed was,the listing of Class/Form horses,and from yesterday,I believe of 12 Class/Form listed there were 5 winners and 1 non-runner.We all make mistakes,and three year old hurdle races in HEAVY ground,(and when they say it is heavy in Ireland then it is like a bog),would not be ideal for betting.I found this to my cost with Mirpour at Clonmel,a couple of weeks back,but learned my lesson,as I am sure you did yesterday.
A general comment,for anybody,is with Le Sauvignon,yesterday.When he went clear of Jair Du Cochet,and looked like winning,I wonder if he had been in top condition,would he have gone on and won,as something was amiss,obviously.
Todays Welsh Grand National,result,shows that no matter what method of backing horses,is used,it is very difficult to get a very high vdw style strike rate.I am an open minded person,and understand racing well,but the antics of Johnjo O'Neill and Christ Roche in Ireland really irk me,there is of course a common denominator to both stables,but from a personal point,I wouldn't mind seeing both individuals having there licence removed,of course it will never happen.
The best of luck Guest in the future,and thanks again for igniting this thread,a happy new year to you.
 
Posts: 546 | Registered: February 09, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Fulham>
Posted
Pipedreamer

re the Welsh National, although a good case could be made for the winner from the form perspective, the difference between two runs relatively close together, from a stable with an "iffy" reputation for non-triers, should at least provoke some official inquiry.

Inconsistencies in investigating "in and out" running in racing seem to have much in common with, for example, the regular "home" decisions given by officials at Old Trafford. I'm not for a moment suggesting overt bribery. But, as in many other walks of life, money can be deployed in many subtle ways to create an "understanding" climate. And there was no lack of money in today's context.
 
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Member
Posted
You trying to provoke me now Fulham smile

Cheers
Fred The Red
 
Posts: 234 | Registered: December 03, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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