Guest,
As your taking a quick look in, may i take this opportunity to thank you for all your kind heartedness in posting what you have in the last year or so, i may be onto something from your Mackeson post especially, but im not 100% sure about it, thats the only reason i didn`t reply, best of luck to you anyway and as ever, you are still all class! .

It's a shame that Guest has knocked it on the head , I say this from a purely selfish point of view as I for one relied heavily on the constant help he gave to EVERYONE on this thread.
What a top man.
I can't help but think he's made the right choice
as he can get on with what he does full time without the grief he's had to endure from the twat element on this thread .
In parting he left us with certain points in the Pegwell Bay example to look at.

As Guest pointed out, in the Mackeson
Jim Thorpe carried 11-10
Pegwell Bay carried 11-2
Thus Pegwell Bay recieved 8lb

L.T.O
Jim Thorpe won his class 29 hcp ch carrying 12-1
( not against much class springs to mind )
Pegwell Bay wins a much higher class 57 hcp ch carrying 11-2

Looking at the best respective hcp races kindly supplied by Guest

Jim Thorpe wins a class 77 hcp hrdl carrying 11-7
Pegwell Bay wins class 78 hcp ch carrying 11-10,
forget about chase versus hrdl, look at race-class and weight carried.Near identical class but Pegwell Bay has done it carrying more weight

So if you take all this data and line it up against the conditions of the Mackeson (2m4f ch)
who between Jim Thorpe and Pegwell Bay had the more favourable weight advantage.
Would you not think that Pegwell Bay had one hell of a concession against Jim Thorpe in recieving the 8lb , let alone the fact that Jim Thorpe had been campained over 2m on each of his last three races.
I know it could be argued that Jim Thorpe had won a class 97 and class 65 within his last three races but most certainly not under the conditions required for the Mackeson .

All the best
Chris B

Bream,

I have all the Sports Forum pages going back to March 88 yes 88 and I to remember the Key Races article.

Does anybody want me to dig the article out ?



Greg,

Well done with your 10/1 winner.



Mr Ed,

I`ll miss Guest more than most but believe me I would like to have Mtoto`s knowledge.


Cheers,

I would be greatfull if you could dig them out!

The best race at Lingfield today,won by Sea Storm at 12/1,with favourite Eyecatcher 3rd at 6/4.If one looks at the recent form of both these horses,and the conditions of today's race,how in the world can there be such a discrepancy in the betting with these two.
I couldn't have said beforehand which would have won the race,but it wouldn't have needed a rocket scientist to see that where ever one finished the other was going to be very close to it.An each way bet to nothing,or a dutch with both,oh to be a bookmaker.

Determined,

If you can find it I'd be very interested in reading it.Thanks.

Bream,

Prominent King's last 3 runs

Leopardstown 19/2/77 Erin 89* 4th beaten 11.5 lengths 6th favourite SP 10/1
Punchestown 31/12/77 14* 2.5 mile non handicap 2nd beaten 9 lengths 3rd fav SP 8/1
Leopardstown 14/1/78 6* 2 mile handicap 2nd beaten 5 lengths 2nd fav SP 9/4

Why would this form give you confidence about PK winning the Erin this time? I except he was trained with this race in mind, why did the trainer think he was good enough to win it? Nothing he has done in the last 3 runs supports it. His profile is very similar to BL dropped in class 3 times, the only difference I can see is he was 2nd favourite in his last race. A lot has been made of his second to Drumgora, but what has that horse achieved in the past? 4th in a 7* handicap beaten 9.5 lengths, then 3rd in a very good handicap (116*) We know nothing about how he ran, was he ridden for the place money? That would make sense as he wasn't fancied in the market, what we do know is VDW wouldn't use the placing to improve his ability rating. Put PK's last 3 runs against BL's. Remembering the last run was on heavy going, against a horse that had beaten him at level weights on this going. VDW never said BL was out of form, but to get to PK on a c/form basis he has to be. VDW just said BL was well out of it on his ratings.

I must have missed these posting from Mr e d that were informative. All I have seen are postings that suggest you are an empty vessel, or now a fool, if one doesn't except the word according to him. I have asked him several questions that he has ignored, or doesn't have the answers to. Guest usually tried to answer any questions or gave a reason why he wouldn't! I can only think Mr e d is an expert on fool's, seeing one every time he shaves. Don't want this thread to turn into a slanging match, so let's get on with the job in hand, however you work it.

Greg,

I, to would like to say well done today. As a bonus the horse was the fastest in the race, the s/f coming from better class than today's race. Wonder if Swish found it. I had a good look but left it alone as it failed on a filter. Nice one!!

Be Lucky

Mtoto

One of the things Guest has regularly pointed out was that VDW's approach was often at variance with orthodox thinking, and in my view nowhere is that more apparent than in his way of judging whether a horse was in form or not.

GIVEN the approach VDW used - which, obviously, those who understand it are free to accept or reject - Prominent King was a form horse for the 1978 Erin, principally by virtue of his 2nd in the previous race, which from VDW's perspective was an extremely good performance.

As Guest has also regularly pointed out, for VDW the class of the race was potentially significant, but so was the class of the horses in the race. Although the race in which Prominent King came second to Drumgora was low class (6), from VDW's point of view the class of the opposition faced - at least as regards Drumgora - was far from low. On his previous run, Drumgora had come a close third in a class 117 race which was contested by several high class horses, including the 1977 Erin winner, Master Monday. By running Drumgora close, trying to give it 19lb, VDW concluded that Prominent King was in form.

As it happens, Prominent King was also the form horse with the highest ability rating in the Erin, and thus what VDW termed the class/form horse. However, as again Guest has regularly pointed out, that in itself did not make Prominent King a bet.

Judging by his SCHB letter, Prominent King received support from the ratings VDW used as a cross check. He was also consistent (an aggregate of 8); had come 4th in the race in 1977 carrying 7lb more, and came out top on a cross check of capability and ability that it is reasonable to presume VDW used.

By contrast, inspection of the form of all the other runners identifies - in my view - no dangers, with the possible exception of Mr Kildare, a much less experienced horse who had won both his previous hurdles races, the latter by some margin, and was something of an unknown quantity. But given what Prominent King had shown in his career - third in the 1976 Triumph Hurdle and 4th in the 1977 Erin - Mr Kildare would have had to have been an exceptional novice to have beaten him at that stage in his career, receiving only 3lb.

The fact that Mr Kildare ran Prominent King to 2.5l in the Erin showed that he was indeed a very good horse, and in his next race he won the Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham as the 8/11 on favourite.

GIVEN VDW's approach, on the information available prior to the 1978 Erin, I cannot but agree with him that Prominent King "looked a good proposition". And that would still have been true even if Mr Kildare had proved truly exceptional and beaten him.

I think your difficulty is that you don't accept VDW's way of assessing "in-formness" - and that, of course, is your right. But VDW made it quite clear that form as he saw it, and class, were at the heart of his approach, and my researches suggest that he applied his way of assessing "in-formness" with consistency in over 100 examples.

there is much to be had from that race. From a VDW point of view.

the fav was a bit of a BL, impossible as it may seem VDW would have that as borderline at best. the winner a PK.

More experience than I have, at the moment, was needed to bet though.

[This message was edited by Barney on December 28, 2002 at 11:44 PM.]

Fulham,

Another excellent posting. Can I ask why, you and VDW are not prepared to forgive BL his last run? VDW has shown on many occasions he is prepared to overlook a bad run. Another thing I am having difficulty with is, if the course and/or going is against the horse, and the punters in their wisdom still make the horse favourite, why should this count as a negative for the next run. Looking at many of the examples I think VDW has taken this into account, why not in this case? Could you explain in the same clarity as you have for PK being in form, why BL is out of form? If indeed you do think he was out of form.

Be Lucky

As your looking in,just like to ask,if you could continue to post Class/Form horses from time to time,just to help out the likes of myself and I am sure others.

Greg
Well done with ELTIGRI. Super winner!
Mtoto asked if I found it as well. Unfortunately I was too tired to look at handicaps last night, so I am afraid I did not.

Fulham
That was an excellent move (forgive the pun) in waiting for MOVING EARTH to set off in the second race before backing it. Very shrewd and well done. Because I am often sarcastic this may sound that way, but it is not I assure you,
Cheers
Swish

Guest

I fully agree with pipedreamer

Greg

Had a looka t it after it won and i still wouldn't have picked it.

titus

ELTIGRI was indeed a certainty after inspecting speed figs. now i have examined the race.

Mtoto,
May I ask what filter stopped you from thinking same?

Anyone else
Examine race and realise
Cheers
swish

I saved you from NO NEED TO ALARM
Look at speed figs of ELTIGRI to see why it was a "winner in the race".
Swish

Hello again,
I see you picked all losers in the tipping challenge, but now you are betting full time, when you aren't playing golf.
You are losing all your money and we all know it,
Eat a bit of humble pie and realise that some of us know what we are talking about,
Swish

thanks for your comments

Mtoto

It is the case that, from time to time, VDW was prepared to "excuse" a run, but only where there was a very clear reason, and it is interesting that, while he "excused" for the purpose of identifying the class/form horse in the race, he often seems to have taken matters no further, ie his "excused" horses were c/fs but not bets (Gaye Chance and Beat the Retreat, for example). The extent to which VDW was prepared to "excuse" and then back a horse should not, therefore, be over-stated.

To return to the Erin, VDW did not, of course, regard himself as "excusing" Prominent King at all. From his (VDW's) perspective, it was not a matter of "excusing" a mere second in a class 6 race, but of recognising what Prominent King had achieved in that race vis-a-vis Drumgora, and thus according him form horse status.

As regards Beacon Light, on his third last run before the Erin, on Boxing Day 1977, he "comfortably" won a small but select class 74 race. Although he did not explicitly say so, I have no doubt whatsoever that, had that race been Beacon Light's last before the Erin, given the relativities (vis-a-vis the class of the Erin and the class of the other in form runners) VDW would have regarded BL as a form horse. And given BL's ability rating, he would have been the class/form horse - though, of course, certainly not a bet solely on that count.

However, BL had two more runs before the Erin. In the first, a class 44, he again won relatively easily, and had the Erin been his next race again I am sure VDW would have regarded him as a form horse (and still, of course, the c/f).

It is BL's race immediately prior to the Erin which changes things from a VDW perspective. That, like the previous race, was ostensibly a drop in class, to 39, and thus if BL was to continue to be regarded in form relative to the Erin VDW would have expected him to have won. A failure to do so, without clear and (from a VDW perspective) acceptable reason necessarily meant that, IN THE CONTEXT OF A RACE OF THE CLASS OF THE ERIN, BL would not be a form horse.

So from a VDW perspective the question becomes was there a clear and accepable reason for BL's defeat? Now, if BL had been brought down at the first, I am sure VDW would have "excused" his failure to win. But he wasn't: he completed and was beaten, albeit narrowly, by Sea Pigeon. So the question becomes more defined: was that defeat unacceptable from a VDW perspective or, like Prominent King's, was it in fact an excellent performance still indicative of form?

The criterion VDW used in these circumstances was the class of the competition - eg Drumgora as a yardstick against which to judge Prominent King's performance. The yardstick in BL's case was Sea Pigeon and his last run was in a chase (in which he fell). There is evidence in at least two other examples that VDW took the view that horses returning to hurdling after one or more trips over fences should not be highly regarded, and BL's failure to win may well have been viewed as unacceptable for that reason alone. Alternatively, VDW might have weighed up both horses in his usual ways (ability ratings etc) and come to the conclusion that BL was the expected winner of the race on 4/2/78. (I believe someone has posted earlier that BL was the c/f in the 4/2/78 race.) Either way, from a VDW perspective BL should have beaten SP on 4/2/78, and from that same perspective had no acceptable reason (class of competition, or factor such as a fall) for not doing so. QED out of form in the context of the Erin.

Now, by conventional form analysis one can argue that BL's performance against Sea Pigeon was actually rather good. Although I can't be absolutely sure, my researches suggest that it is probable that SP had the higher OR of the two, and was actually getting 4lb from BL, so on that basis BL was probably 6lb "wrong" with SP compared with the weights they would have carried had the 4/2/78 race been a handicap. To have run SP to a length was, from that perspective, a good performance. But that gets us back to the beginning of my Prominent King post. As Guest has commented, VDW's approach was in some important ways markedly different from conventional wisdom. (And in this regard, it is worth recalling a recent race to which attention was drawn on the thread - I think the race just before Christmas in which Tarxian very easily beat Scots Grey, but I may be wrong. But the point was that in that race, whichever it was, the winner comfortably beat its chief rival, although 16lb "wrong" on handicap terms.)

what makes you think I am losing money.

VDW methods yesterday indicated 5 winners from the races to consider, mithak was a good thing as well, I only backed two however.

Following the further selections you have come up with, I can only conclude that you were lucky in dropping on the couple of certs last week. IF you really knew, there are some you would not have touched with a barge pole.

If greg knows why he picked that he has indeed found a golden egg laying goose, but I suspect the real reason he picked it was because it had won off higher marks and was well in, in fact it was. in more ways than one.

Your way of selecting winners is very good as you have proven and has touched on some of VDW's methods, If you think that is good, you would be more than a little suprised if you found the real answer's, AH but you never will, will you, you have stopped looking for the answer's because you think you have found it already.

Well done on the tipping challenge, I remember winning one of those a long time ago, the horse that clinched it for me then was firestone at 12/1, that hadnt won any races at all.and i think in the few days before you started mouthing off on there. i gave 12/1 second e/w,10/1 winner, 25/1 second ew.

in conclusion swish you are great, how much do you charge for finding winners? LOL.

Thanks

How long have you been using VDW's methods to select winners.