My jumps selections are far more accurate than my flat selections. Can anyone say approximately how the VDW examples break down by code?

I could have sworn Gummy asked a question to the regular contributors to this thread.

Gummy I should print the 170 pages, tear each page into quarters, make a hole in the middle of it, pass a piece of string through it, hang it up in the ...............

I'm just a visitor to this thread but it's fine with me.

Determined,
As Barney said, the time to find out whether it can successfully carry weight is before you put your money on it. It had also been raised 6lb on the ORs for finishing 2nd in the John Smiths so was shouldering a double burden.

Investor,
I couldnt find anything to seriously put up against Kirovski. I didnt notice the winner's previous efforts in the race at the time but even so 1/12 would have put me off.

Mtoto,
Do you think Kirovski bounced then? I take it that is what you mean.

regards,

Gummy,
I doubt many people would have a problem with this.
regards,

111

LOL

I saw it and thought the same as you, to be fair this is the only thread that seems to talk about Horses its a shame it's not done before a race

Determined

I made a book on the race yesterday however scraped PW of my list after i heard it was carring 2lb overwight, mind you even with this it was still underweight. Whats going to happen when things go metric?

Fulham
Thanks for your comments i was thankfully on True night this time.

titus

PS I would like a 10/1 today can anybody help?



Titus

Hi Detemined,

The answer to your question, has Kirovski now proved that he can carry that sort of weight, is that he has proved he can carry that sort of weight in that class. He was still beaten by a lesser horse in Praire Wolf albeit whilst conceding a lot of weight. These are the sorts of things that need balancing properly and which go some way to establishing class/form.

Gummy,

Not a problem as far as I’m concerned.

i don,t contribute very much,the subject fascinates me,so the answer from everyone must be a resounding yes

Gummy

I echo 3 legs first line
yes good idea

Yes Gummy thats a great idea!But i think 111's had a better one.Judging by the responce from the regulars.

Hi Mtoto,

I was amazed to see that you don,t think weight matters.I think you've said this before but I assumed (wrongly?) that you ignored it in compiling your speed figures.

Do you really believe that there is no relationship between the horses physique,the weight carried and the course it runs on,or are you just trying to spark debate? That negative you mentioned for Kirovski is interesting,assuming I'm looking at things in the right way.I'm going to try and use that as a crosscheck in the future.

Gummy,

I'm only an occasional contributor,so whatever you feel is best is fine by me.Apart from Three Legs' suggestion that is!

rock of gibraltar,this horse should go down in the dictionary,as " a machine for printing money " the balance between class and form as often been discussed,well look no further,a true odds on chance,i sincerely hope they keep this horse in training

Hi Mtoto,

I’m aware that you don’t take any direct notice of the weight a horse carries on it’s back, but this is, as far as VDW is concerned, a factor that should be taken into account. It was mentioned many times by the man himself and was a crucial factor in a large number of his examples.

I gave my reasoning behind why I thought Kirovski would find it hard to win, it’d be nice to hear what you felt was a negative.

I have been studying the Wayward lad example in depth and can see where VDW said they came in the order of there class ratings. But I cannot see how BHL was out of form, VDW had Coobs Ditch, Earls Brig and Wayward lad as form horse's OK the first two won there last races so I guess you could not argue with this. Wayward Lad was not totally in form due to his 2nd to last run coming 3rd on the 30th Nov at Chepstow.
I can see BHL was not consistant also but he beat WL in his second to last race carring 4lb more, today they meet on equal weights !!!!
The 1985 KG chase winner Wayward Lad was put forward in a VDW article but I belive it seems not many people understood what VDW was saying.
Any comments on why BHL was not in form ???
Mimas.

gummy,

i will go along with anything you say.

although for me make it a private thread and charge £25 if you want.

but only if 'Guest' spells it all out!

hello all

can anyone help me?

i am trying to get the name of a good book that will contain detailed information on each of britains racecourses.With photos and schematic maps etc.

does anyone know one?


Thanks in anticipation.

John in Brasil,

1) What is weight?

A matter of vital importance to a trainer I would say.They may complain sometimes about the weight their horses are alloted but they also use it to their advantage to bring a horse to fitness and to create illusions.

2) Is it always the same substance?
3) Is its substance of no importance?

Its inherent quality is to make it more difficult for the body to which its attached to accelerate from rest and to increase its momentum.The degree of difficulty depends on many things.In a horses case,weight alloted,course severity,going,physique of the horse and type of weight whether live or dead.I seem to remember some systems sprang up around Willie Carson in handicaps when riding one of the bottom weights.There seemed to be a foundation in logic to me.When Carson was on board and the horse was alloted 7-10 all that weight was live weight urging the horse on (or not as the case may be).Carson was strong in a finish for his weight and had a lot of experience in my opinion.If the horse had been alloted 10-00 however there would have been physically stronger jockies riding nearer that weight.With Carson on board at 10-00 there would have been 32lbs of lead in the saddle,and someone physically weaker than a jockey who's normal riding weight was nearer 10 stone.

4)How do you know the weight of a horse?

I don't.But I could,

a)Go to the track and make paddock observations

b)Timeform publications give a description of every horse,as I recall,in the Black book,annual and racecards.

c)Raceform note horses at major courses on their racecourse debut.I'm not sure if they still note some 3Y.O.s that have improved over the winter.

5)How do you know if there has been a change in its weight since its last appearance?

I don't, but even if I did would it help me? I can however go and look at the horse in the paddock which is what I think VDW would have done.I can also draw inferences from the way the trainer has placed his horse and try and work out what his real target is.If I can get that part right and the trainer is really trying today isn't it reasonable to assume that he will have the horse fit to do itself justice?

In my opinion anyone who thinks that the physique of a racehorse doesn't materially affect its long term career hasn't spent much time doing paddock observations.Compare some seasoned handicapper on the flat,the type of horse that manages a few wins each year ,to one that continually finds a couple of horses too good.The continual winner will have the build to cope with the increase in weight and class as it progresses.Its not that weight doesn't matter just that all horses cope with it differently.As VDW said each horse has its own weight limits.

John in Brasil,I'm sure you didn't pose those questions to get any enlightenment off me.I think you have your own different views on the subject.Hopefully you'll put up the answers to your own questions.

John in Brasil

I missed out one of your questions.

What does weight do?

If applied in enough Quantity it will slow a horse down.