No

if the prize money is right,the best horse wins the race,could anybody please answer this?
horses never lose ability,please answer this?
these are two quotes from the vdw thread
and they are both wrong,but i would like opinions please

You yourself inaugurated a VDW question thread, why not use that?

determined many thanks for the information i will look back over those posts, excellant summary of lady cricket,

chris, many thanks for the reply i look forward for any further insight, form notes of the prominent king race, grundy

john duncan

because all of them read this,and not the other

Abilty never fades!
Just my opinion, but I think VDW was trying to illustrate the distinction between class and form,e.g, Once a Derby winner, always a Derby winner; the form may deteriorate through age, infirmity, or whatever, but that is the form of the horse, and not its class.

could i ask you a question regarding van der wheils statement ;you should not need to be reminded that the class of a horse is differant from the class of race in which they compete, he also stated shimshek,ala hounak do not have much in the way of class as hores, in the evaluation of roushayds races your help would be appreciated, many thanks grundy

john duncan

I'm hoping for barbed wire.

could i ask you a question regarding van der wheils statement ;you should not need to be reminded that the class of a horse is differant from the class of race in which they compete, he also stated shimshek,ala hounak do not have much in the way of class as horses, in the evaluation of roushayds races, i believe ala hounak, shimshek, raced in some decent races that season, your help would be appreciated, many thanks grundy

john duncan

Can you explain why you include Mister Ed in you list of interagatees?

See you tomorrow.

A question arising from the Lady Cricket postings.
From his 'Spells it all out' missive, VDW often emphasised the passage beginning "To confirm what the figures say etc...", as a clue to the solution, which I believe is accepted by everyone.
Why then, do you think he included in that passage, 'The pace and going of the respective races'?

GRUNDY
I will eventually post my views on your question re 'The class in which a horse runs' but, as they differ from some others on this forum, I will wait and see how many are prepared to help you.
Regards,
Johnd

To help those without the old Form Books, a member of the now defunct VDW Methodology Group posted some details of the early VDW examples on that Group's board.

He has agreed that I may copy some on to this thread, and below is the data he posted about the 1978 Erin (Prominent King's race). I believe this is the data Marchwood copied, and hope it comes out in a reasonably clear format:

The race was a class 90 non-handicap, run over 2m at Leopardstown on yielding ground on 18 February 1978.

Last 3 Runs Horse Weight Cons

0 1 0 P MASTER MONDAY 8-12-0 21
3 1 3L DECENT FELLOW 5-11-11 7(14)
1 1 0 MELADON 5-11-11 12
1 1 2 BEACON LIGHT 7-11-8 4*
3 3 6 MONKSFIELD 6-11-8 12
- 8 9 0 BALLYMOUNTAIN GIRL 9-11-4 27
4 1 1 BANSWARA 6-11-4 6
5 1 0 - COOCH BEHAR 6-11-4 16
3 1 2 DRUMGORA 6-11-4 6
1 5 – 0 MULTIPLE 8-11-4 16
4 – 2 2 PROMINENT KING 6-11-4 8*
1 5 7L TROYSWOOD 6-11-4 16
1 1 MR KILDARE 5-11-1 3*
1 3 F 5 SILVINE 5-11-1 9
1 1 2 BEPARAEJOJO 4-10-0 4
3 2 2 BUGLE BEADS 4-10-0 7

Actual Betting Evs B.Light,5 D.Fellow,
Mr.Kildare,6 P.King,
10 Meladon,11 Monksfield,20 Bar
Fcst given by VDW B Light,D Fellow,M Kildare,P
King and Monksfield


MR. KILDARE

28/1 1st 14 8 10-10 2m NAAS Sft Cond Hd 8/11f 11-0 3/1
27/12 1st 6 2.5 10-9 2m LEOP Yld Mdn Hd 2/5f 10-9 10/1



BEACON LIGHT

4/2 2nd 39 1 12-2 2m SAND Hvy CondHd 6/4f 11-12 2/1
2/1 1st 43 2 12-1 2m WIND Gd CondHd 4/5f 11-9 7/2
26/12 1st 85 2 11-102m KEMP Yld CondHd 5/2 11-7 6/4f

DRUMGORA (for ref)

28/1 2nd 17 1.5 10-9 2m3fNAAS Sft HcpHd 9/4f 9-7 5/2
14/1 1st 6 5 11-2 2m LEOP Gd HcpHd 6/4f 12-7 9/4
27/12 3rd116 2.5 10-1 2mLEOP Yld HcpHd 33/1 11-4 4/1f



PROMINENT KING

14/1 2nd 6 5 12-7 2m LEOP Gd HcpHd 9/4 11-2 6/4f
31/12 2nd 14 4 11-4 2m4fPUNCHSftCondHd 8/1 11-4 12/1
17/2 4th 88 11 11-11 2m LEOP HvyCondHd 10/1 12-0 20/1



DECENT FELLOW

28/1 3rdL 22 25 11-12 2mDONSftCondHd 9/4 11-12 13/8jf
27/12 1st 116 1.5 11-4 2mLEOPYld HcpHd 4/1f 10-4 14/1
17/12 3rd 28 12 11-8 2m ASCGd CondHd 4/7f 11-8 13/2


Result

Prominent King WON 6/1

After posting the Erin data, the Meth. Group poster contributed data for the next few examples in a different format. Here is the data for the race won by Rifle Brigade: again, I'm not sure how well it will come out:


15th April 1978 Beverley Yldng

1m 4f 3yo Handicap Class 15 5 run



Last 6 Runs Horse Age/Wt Cons Class/Dist LTO
7 1 1 8 5 – 5 Alaskan Prince 3-9-7 18 18 10f
1 4 9 6 – 0 7 King Pearl 3-8-9 23 16 8f
4 2 3 2 2 1 - Rifle Brigade 3-8-9 5 7 8f
7 7 4 7 4 - Deep Profile 3-7-8 15 19 8f
8 5 5 2 8 0 - Gardenia Press 3-7-7(5) 20 22 7f

Actual Betting: 13/8 D.Profile , 5/2 R.Brigade , 4 A.Prince , K.Pearl
13 G.Press

Cons 1 Cons 2
Alaskan Prince 18 As Cons 1
Rifle Brigade 5
Deep Profile 15


Date Placing Class Lgth Wgt Dist Course Going Race Type SP Wgt Of winner/beaten horse RFSF

Rifle Brigade
18/10 1st 7 ½ 8-11 8f LANRK Fm Stks 5/4f 8-5 49
Lw , prom , 4th st , led 2f out , rdn , ro
3/10 2nd 7 2 9-0 7f EDIN Gd Mdn Evf 8-8 -
Lw , ap , 5th st , ro ins fnl f
1/9 2nd 18 ½ 8-5 8f YORK Gd Hcp 4/1f 8-3 38
Lw , 6th st , chal 2f out , hrd drvn & nt qckn fnl f
Deep Profile
22/10 4th 19 9 7-11 8f DON Yld Hcp 16/1 7-7 29
Lw , bhnd & rdn 4f out , ro wl ins fnl f
22/9 7th 32 8 7-9 8f AYR Gd Hcp 14/1 7-11 -
Nvr trbld ldrs
25/7 4th 13 13 8-11 7f NEWC Gd Stks 14/1 8-11 6
Lw , in tch , syd on fnl f
Alaskan Prince
4/4 5th 18 14 ½ 9-7 10f AYR GS Hcp 3/1 7-13 -
Bit bkwd , prom , 4th st , sn wknd
9/9 5th 17 6 9-5 8f DON Gd Stks 8/1 9-5 37
Led to 2f out , wknd
27/8 8th 33 - 9-5 7f NMT Gd Stks 15/2 9-1 -
Lw , prom 5f , wknd qckly

Both the Erin and Rifle Brigade data came out better than I had expected. IF it is useful to anyone, and they would like similar data for other races (I think there is similar for about the next ten VDW examples), let me know and I'll copy it across.

I would simply add one personal comment. While there is a lot of data in these files, I believe that fully to understand what led VDW to his conclusions in these particular races, and to find what he referred to as the "missing link", one needs much more. Disappointing as it may be to those genuinely interested in exploring these matters, there really is no substitute for unearthing copies of the old Form Books and copying the relevant material from the Sporting Lifes. (The former is, without doubt, essential. The latter is useful with all the examples as a quick way of calculating ability ratings, essential if one wants the betting forecasts, and essential in a few cases where races in France or Ireland were not included in the Form Books: the 1979 St Leger won by VDW "good thing" Son of Love being a case in point.)

Not much class as horses.

VDW told us on a couple of occasions that horses were sometimes put in way over their head, this can be for a number of reasons ie derby day at epsom how many owners, who dont really have a horse that is good enough to win a race, fancy a nice day out in the owners enclosure. The same can be said for many top meetings. Another view is that they arn't fast enough to win their races and lack ability.

Thank you.

many thanks for the information greatly appreciated i will endeavour to carry on searching for the relavant form books, i very much realise hard work is a key component in assessing these examples, and of course, knowing what to look for and where to find it,hopefully with the help and assistance of members on this very knowledgeable board,we can gain further insights into van der wheils,form assessment and successful methods, johnd ,fulham,barney,mtoto,determined,guest,statajack,lee,i appreciate your time and knowledge in helping me and other members, forgive me for not mentioning other van der wheil devotees,many thanks grundy

john duncan

Going back to the shortest priced method,ONE KNIGHT looks good.

Bream,
Thanks for offering to help.