It's already several months since I went through the thread but if you could be a little more detailed about what it is you're talking about I may be able to locate the reference.

Fulham,

You are right with regards the order of the class/form horse in the 2.00 York, ie - Salute having the higher ability rating was 1st and Kirovski 2nd. I was clearly mixing the 2 up.

With regards ignoring a `poor` run , I am inclined to ignore these `poor` runs far more than perhaps I should. Perhaps once I have studied more of the old eg`s my policy will change.

Barney/Johnd,

Re` Far Lane, the distance was ideal and he can act of this ground but I feel a bit a juice in the ground is preferred. In my opinion he was keen early ( a trait from last year ) and did get outpaced before staying on well.

Hughes didn`t really get after him and in my opinion the run was needed. One other factor which could be very important if my memory serves me correct, ie - didn`t the horse have a special bit and/or muzzle when running his best races last year ?

Fulham/Barney/Determined

Do any of you have any thoughts on IL CAPITANO at ludlow tonight.The race has run but any comments would be welcome.

Do the Canarys(?) have any attractions?

Epiglotis

Thanks. If Barney and I are on the same wavelength, what he is trying to recall is a horse Guest named as a class/form horse which in the event was beaten by one with a significantly lower ability rating but form (ie a decent recent run) in a race of markedly higher class race than the c/f. Not much to go on without a clue as to names, but if it sparks any memory, we'd be glad to know.


Investor

Sorry, I didn't look at the evening racing and the Post has been cut up to extract the necessary material for the records book and the residuum, including the Ludlow card and form, thrown out.

Sorry, neither my notes nor memory retain the depth of detail required for retieval.

Barney,

Far Lane

Have you tried taking weight out of the equation, and then looking for the reasons the horse lost?

For what it's worth there are several reasons I didn't think the horse would win. It ran much as I expected, in fact I backed it for a place only. I think Johnd hit the nail on the head (pace, and course) Have you thought about that angle Investor, it can prove very profitable? Better returns than dutching very often (and far less out lay). Determined is right the horse often runs with a net muzzle, didn't see one today. That was a prep race for something big, I expect it to be on a stiff course Ascot, Sandown, or Newmarket.

Weight can be such an easy excuse. Why do you think it was weight, the horse wasn't stopping?

Be Lucky

Epiglotis

Thanks anyway.

I'm always puzzled by the nature of motivation in these so called prep races to the extent that I think they may be scapegoatalogical. Could you explain to me why this particular race would be chosen to suit this horse for prep and how this prep functions in any dynamic sense?

Mtoto
Because of the way iv'e conducted my betting activities over the last few years,And also through getting to grips with these methods i do place a lot of thought into the weight aspect at one time of day i wouldn't have batted an eyelid and carried on regardless,But weight will stop a horse at some point.Having said that i let a horse run tonight i.e IL CAPITANO as i was unsure of it's weight carrying and also the amount it was giving to pure fun.It's amazing really,Sometimes you can see there is no problem and on other occasions the uncertainty completely throws you off course,Ah well that's one that slipped the net but it's good to see the form holding up.

Fulham

horse is japhet from last march chel
conflict is frosty cannyon.

Investor,

it was the only one i considered today and on balance didnt bother as i though it was a big ask.

Personal question so please tell me to **** off if you choose but how does your number of bets per week now compare with one year ago?

Mtoto,

I also thought this was a prep race for far lane.

I bother about weight because VDW told us through his examples TO BOTHER.

I have said recently i am not bothered trying to find winning horses, at this moment in time,I am chiefly procupied with trying to find bets.

show me 5 examples where VDW selected higher weighted horses to bet on,( apart from the three class horses in letter 35)

Belive or not I am well capable of disecting the minutae of form but I do not think that its any use in implimenting VDW's winning betting stratergy

Barney
Well that's made me feel a little better in my judgement,But i'm still nott 100% sure i should have let that one go,Especially with c williams taking a valuable 5lb off,Still not to worry.

Epi,

TWO points

My stratergy has changed a hell of a lot since the start of the flat last year.

I did not keep betting records as such. I was just starting a new job at the time, and that prevented the four hours a day reading the peper that I was able to do previously.


MY gut feeling is that the number of bets is about the same funnily enough, although over the past year at times it has fluctuated wildly between down to one or two a week at very short prices and backing everything i think should win up to 10 a day

Investor,

it was not the weight for me, it was the race conditions.

Thanks for the reply.

Barney

Thanks for the lead.

As you say, the race with Japhet is an interesting one and, as Guest said the following day, the selection was a mistake. It bears on the issue Investor's earlier post led me to ponder, but I think more research is needed.

As regards tomorrow's racing, subject to double checking when the printed version of the Post is available tomorrow morning, in the 2.55 Arzoo seems to me to be the c/f, with reasonable, though not dramatic, time/merit support. I'll be surprised if it is not placed, but perhaps not quite strong enough for an interest.

Barney
Would you please expand,IL CAPITANO had a lot going for it from a form point of view the only other negative to my mind would be the distance,I really cannot see anything else that could have put a spanner in the works.

chaser hurdling?